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Wave Analysis by InstaForex


Dear forum members,

Me and my colleagues are going to provide you with the latest analysis reviews. Please, follow our analysis and you will be informed about Forex. Hope, our reviews will help you to increase the efficiency of your trading. 

The source is instaforex.com.



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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 23, 2014

 
1390432175_gbpusdh4.png
 
 
Overview: 
This week, the GBP/USD pair has an upside movement from 1.6415 to 1.6517, and today the market has opened at the price of 1.6566. Furthermore, the uptrend represents the double bottom of the channel emerging at the level of 1.6415. It is equally important that the RSI has still been positive in the daily time frame, so it calls for a new upward movement. Therefore, the price movement will be trapped between 1.6615 and 1.6466 (Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Moreover, the pair has already formed major support at the level of 1.6503. For that it should be noted that the price was set above this level a long time ago, and the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.6500, with the first target at 1.6565, then if it breaks 1.655, there will be a breakout above this level with the second target at the 1.6611 price. However, the best location for placing a stop loss should be below 1.6412.

 

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[B]Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 27, 2014[/B]

Overview
In the H4 chart, the pair reversed its downward move taking an upward move due to the strong Support level of 167.75. Today as shown in the H4 chart, the pair bounced from the Support area breaking the Resistance level of 168.50, and currently it is approaching the Resistance level of 169.50 trying to break it through to continue its bullish move which means more buy-signals keeping its movement inside the bullish channel. So we should wait till the price closes above the Resistance level of 169.50 before making the decision to have a bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next Resistance level of 170.00. But closing below the Resistance level of 168.50 cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and Support levels:
R3 (170.75), R2(170.00), R1(169.50), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3(167.10).


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Technical analysis of the US dollar for January 28, 2014

In the US dollar front, it made a double high at the level of 80.56 and it is trading below 21DEMA that is the major bearish factor.Until it crosses it, we remain in bearish mode. After hitting a 2-months high of81.39, the dollar index sharply declined to 80.15 In the technical front, oscillators sign a bullish indications for limited downside with a higher lows pattern.If prices are above the level 80.56, next immediate resistance comes at thelevel of 80.70. Following its drop in theprevious week, the FOMC decision to further reduce its economic stimulus,accompanied with a stronger fourth-quarter GDP reading and other economic data,could set the US Dollar to start a fresh leg of up-move against other majorcurrencies.
Support: 80.15, 80.0, 79.70.
Resistance: 80.56, 80.69, 81.27.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 29, 2014

Overview:
The NZD/USD pair movement will be continued directly from the resistance at the level of 0.8390 in H1 chart (127.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). therefore, the price of the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness, following the break of the lowest level of 0.8350, hence it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.8350 in H1 chart (in the short term) with the first target of 0.8257 in order to test the pivot point and further to 0.8212 to form double bottom, then this price will act as a strong suport for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 00% of Fibonacci retracement levels. However, in case if a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the minor resistance level of 0.8317, the market will lead to increase further to 0.8375 for indicating bullish market.


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-- Edited by InstaForex Gertrude on Wednesday 29th of January 2014 01:01:28 AM

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Fundamental analysis of Crude for January 30, 2014

The US Fed is expected to cut its bond purchases by another $10 billion. So starting in February, it will buy $65 billion in bonds per month. Also, there are growing concerns about the impact of slower growth inChina that make the US dollar stronger. Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed thatUS oil inventories are projected to have risen by 2.2 million barrels onaverage in the week ended January 24, 2014. Crude oil inventories rose6.4 million barrels, thus contributing to decrease in oil prices. Technical front crude is trading above the level $97 which is a bullishfactor. Oscillators gave mixed indications resulting in limited downside.
Support- $96, $91.75
Resistance- $97.8, $99.76


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 6, 2014


Overview:
The USD/CAD pair has already formed a strong resistance at the level of 1.1163; furthermore, the same level is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Equally important, it should be noticed that a minor support will be set at the level of 1.1025 around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. As shown, the price of the USD/CAD pair has been trapping between 1.1030 and 1.1150; it should be also noted that the price moved higher to 1.1170 and turned lower. So, the range will be about 130 pips this week. Additionally, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for sideways trend. Consequently, the market is going to indicate bullish opportunities at the levels of 1.1025 and 1.1033; with the first target of 1.1110 and continuing towards 1.1163 in order to the resistance at the 1.1163 price. On the other hand, if the price closes below 1.1163. Hence, the price will call for a bearish market to go further towards the double bottom at 1.1060 to test it again.


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[B]Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 7, 2014[/B]





In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and the US will release some economic data such as US-Non-Farm Employment Change, US-Unemployment Rate, US-Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 102.51.
Resistance. 2: 102.31.
Resistance. 1: 102.11.
Support. 1: 101.86.
Support. 2: 101.66.
Support. 3: 101.46.

DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.46) and resistance 3 (102.51). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 10, 2014.

 

 
Technical outlook and chart setups: 
1. Silver remains unchanged for now. It is likely to move in a trading range between $19.00 and $20.00 for a while before breaking higher. Recommendations are to hold long positions for now, risk remains at $18.50. 
2. Intermediary support is at $19.00, followed by $18.75, while resistance is at $20.50 (intermediary), $21.00 and higher. 
3. The structure reveals that the metal could trade between $19.00/20.00 levels for a while before thrusting higher. $18.75/50 levels should hold well now. 
Trading recommendations: 
Remain long, stop at $18.50, target open.

 

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Weekly technical levels of USD/CHF for February 11-14, 2014

Trading recommendations:
According to the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has still been trapped between 0.8960 and 0.9005. As it is known, if the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency pair will be defined as following: USD is in uptrend and CHF is in downtrend. Consequently, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 0.9020 in H1 chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 90 pips. Thereupon, sell at the price of 0.9020 with the first target of 0.8975, it might resume to 0.8932 in order to test the weekly support 1 on February 11, 2014. At the same time, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above the 0.9055 level.


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Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. The EUR/JPY pair has tested resistance line at 140.00 levels as seen here. It is still recommended to remain flat and await for a reaction here. Aggressive traders may go short, risk remains at 143.00.
2. Immediate resistance is at 142.00, followed by 143.00 and 145.50, while supports are fixed at 134.00, followed by 131.00 and lower respectively.
3. The entire structure remains bullish till prices are above support line which is passing through 134.50 at the moment. A pullback is expected at least towards 137.50 before the rally resumes further.

Trading recommendations:
Flat for now.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 13, 2014

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. The GBP/CHF rose past the trading range and broke higher yesterday. Trading at around 1.4950 levels at the moment, the setup still favors bears to take control back. As seen here, the pair has retraced up to 0.618 fibonacci resistance at 1.4950. It is expected to reverse from here towards fresh lows. It is recommended to remain short and also add fresh now.
2. Immediate resistance is fixed at 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4550, followed by 1.4350 and lower respectively.
3. The structure is still favorable to bears till prices remain capped below 1.5120/30 levels. Current price action is a clear opportunity to initiate further short positions.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop is at 1.5130, target is open.


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Technical analysis of gold for February 14, 2014

The US retail sales data softened the US dollar and made greenticks in gold. Gold made a high at the level of $1,302.70 yesterday. Thisyear gold started in a good mood reaching a 3-month high. The rally we have seen sofar came from short covering. In Asia's trading session just now gold has made ahigh at $1,307.0. In the hourly and daily charts RSI gave a sell signal. August28, 2013 RSI reached 71.71, at that time gold was trading at the level of $1,433.3.Currently, in the daily chart RSI stood at 70 and the price is trading at thelevel of $1,307.0. Whereas, in the hourly chart RSI stood in the overbought zone atthe level of 75, which does not favor bulls. Probably, gold can stretch its leg upto $1,326, chances are remote.

We recommend to start selling from cmp $1,306.5, targets are $1,300.0,$1,294.0, $1,285.0, and $1,277.0.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 18, 2014
 

 

 
Technical outlook and chart setups: 
1. The GBP/CHF pair remains structurally unchanged for now. The pair has retraced to1.4950/60, which is also fibonacci 0.618 resistance as seen here. The rally has stalled and a possible down move should be on the way. It is recommended to remain short, risk remains at 1.5120. 
2. Intermediary resistance is at 1.4950/60, followed by 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4550/60, followed by 1.4350/60 respectively. 
3. The structure is indicative of a potential head and shoulder reversal formation as seen here. A potential right shoulder has been carved out at 1.4950/60 levels and the next large move could be lower towards 1.43 levels at least. Trading recommendations: Remain short, stop is at 1.5130, target is open.

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 19, 2014
 

 

General overview for 19/02/2014 08:30 CET 
The count has been slightly changed as the momentum is slowing and the market might be in final stages of the ending diagonal wave (v) pattern. Any breakout above the level of 1.0938 is bullish, and the bottom for the whole blue impulsive cycle might be in place. On the other hand, in case of downside breakout below the level of 1.0923, the next support is at the level of 1.0900. Please notice the bullish divergence has formed on momentum . 
Support/Resistance: 
1.0994 - Weekly Pivot 
1.0987 - Technical Resistance 
1.0938 - Technical Resistance 
1.0923 - Intraday Support 
1.0900 - WS1 
Trading recommendations: 
The buy orders should be opened from the level of 1.0941 with SL below the level of 1.0923 and TP at the level of 1.0987.

 

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for February 20, 2014
 

 

Overview 
As it was expected, we should wait for breaking the Resistance area of 172.00-171.50 before making a decision to continue the bullish move. Yesterday, as it is shown in the H4 chart, the pair failed to break this Resistance level to trade below this area and above the Support level of 169.75. Currently, it is testing the Support level of 169.75 trying to break it through to continue its bearish move. If the pair manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, it would be another good opportunity for more sell-signals till reaching the Support level of 168.50 as the first target. 
 
Resistance and Support levels: R3 (172.00), R2(171.50), R1(170.50), S1 (169.75), S2 (168.50), S3(167.00).

 

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 21, 2014

 

 
In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and the US will release the economic data such as US-Existing Home Sale. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 102.95. 
Resistance. 2: 102.75.
Resistance. 1: 102.55. 
Support. 1: 102.30. 
Support. 2: 102.10. 
Support. 3: 101.90. 

DESCRIPTION:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.90) and resistance 3 (102.95). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
 
 
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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for February 24-28, 2014

 
Trading recommendations:
As it is known, sellers are asking for a high price as well as buyers are bidding at a lower price. Therefore, the first key level will set at the level of 1.6755 and the second key level will set at the 1.6545 level on February 24, 2014. Equally important, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6683 and 1.6603. Additionally, it should be noted that the range was about 210 pips last week. Furthermore, the trend was very clear and was indicating in downtrend. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.6750 in H1 chart. As a result, sell at the price of 1.6750 with the first target of 1.6663, it might resume to 1.6544 in order to test the weekly support 1. on the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.6755, hence it will helpful to set it at the price of 1.6780.

 


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 25, 2014


cleardot.gif

Technical outlook and chart setups: 
1. EUR/JPY remains more or less unchanged within the 140.00/50 territory. Recommendations are to remain short for now, the risk remains at 143.00 levels. A push through 143.00 would indicate further strength and challenge 145.50. 

 

2. Immediate resistance is at 142.00/50, followed by 145.50; while supports are spread through 136.50 (intermediary), 134.00, 131.00 and lower respectively. 

 

3. The structure indicates that bears would remain in control untill prices remain under 143.00. Immediate target would be towards the rising support line near 135.00 region now. A break lower will indicate further weakness towards 131.00. 

 

 
Trading recommendations: 

Remain short, stop at 143.00 target open.

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Technical analysis of USD/IDR for February 26, 2014


 
The USD/IDR now have a good strengthened momentum against USD by a few factors such as: 
1. Jannet Yallen's policy on the FED's Stimulus. 
2. The JSX (Jakarta Stock Exchange) rebound causes the capital inflow to Indonesia. 
As we know, USD/IDR has a positive correlation with the JSX indices which are influenced by the Dow, Nikkei, Hangsheng, Strait Times indices. Today this currency has a good strength momentum to 11.380 (low), but after the 11.380 level, the USD/IDR going back to 11.635 again, and at the Daily Charts Candle, it has already made a hanging man formation. This situation happened because the Indonesian stock market has already a technical issue and getting down into the red zone. As we know, since February 17, 2014 many capital inflow have already come to Indonesia especially in the Money Market, and it is normal if this currency has a little pullback. As long the USD/IDR does not breach and close above 11.692.45, this currency will play between the 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci area's (11.692.45 - 11332.55); otherwise if they can breach and close bellow 11.332.55, it will have a chance to go down to the 78.6% (11.076.35) level.

 

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 27, 2014
 

 

 
The EUR/AUD pair initiated a downside movement on January 24. This movement is maintained within the depicted bearish channel. On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit indicating weakness of the ongoing bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the bulls established an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline is roughly located at 1.5265. Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with Four-Hour fixation above the price level of 1.5265. However, the pair consolidated below 1.5265 for a few hours before the bulls pushed again above it. Projection target of this confirmed reversal pattern is located at 1.5525 as long as neckline 1.5265-1.5200 remains defended by the bulls (our stop loss levels). Breakout above 1.5370 is essential to pursue further bullish targets of the Head and shoulders pattern. On the other hand, consolidation below 1.5200 threatens our bullish view hindering further bullish progression allowing a sideway movement to take place between 1.5265 and 1.5080.

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 28, 2014

 

Technical outlook and chart setups: 
1. The EUR/JPY pair loos to have for
med a lower top around 141.00 region. Prices are pushing lower below 139.00 and hence recommendations are to hold short positions taken earlier. Risk remains at 143.00. 
2. Immediate resistance is at 142.00, followed by 143.00 and 145.50, while supports are spread through 136.20/30 (intermediary), followed by 134.00/135.00, 131.00 and lower respectively. 
3. The structure reveals that bears are in control below 143.00. Prices should continue to drift lower towards 135.00/136.00 and subsequently towards 132.00. 
 
Trading recommendations: 
Remain short, set stop at 143.50, target is open.

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 04, 2014

 

The USD/CHF'sdownward movement from 0.9081 extended to as low as 0.8777. Further declinecould be expected after a minor consolidation, and the next target would be at the 0.8700 area. In the hourly chart, thepair is holding above the moving averages that is a bullish view. Theimmediate resistance is at the level of 0.8864 on the intraday basis. Until the priceholds the support at 0.8818, we can expect some pullback. If the price breaks it,next support will be at 0.8792 and 0.8777.

 
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Technical analysis of Gold for March 06, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups: 
1. The metal remains unchanged after producing an engulfing bearish candle earlier. Currently trading at $1,337.00/38, Gold is expected to rally through the $1,345.00/50.00 region today before reversing lower. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further at above levels. Risk remains at $1,359.50/61.00. 
2. Immediate resistance is at $1,355.00 (intermediary), followed by $1,361.00 and $1,375.00, while supports are spread through $1,320.00, followed by $1,280.00/85.00, $1,230.00/40.00 and lower respectively. 
3. The structure indicated that Gold should be headed lower after an engulfing bearish candle appearance. $1,240.00/50 remains level of interest. 
Trading recommendations: 
Remain short, stop at $1,362.50, target open.

 

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Analysis of USDX for March 07, 2014


The ADP report out of the US delivered a drastic blow to bullish expectations for a positive NFP report in February. December and January showed the US labor market which is not nearly as strong as many have anticipated. Economists expect that 150,000 jobs were added last month, up from only 113,000 jobs added in January. The US economy appears to be much weaker than expected and yesterday's ADP report suggests that today's NFP report will print the third consecutive disappointment. If the same thing happens, the US Federal Reserve may have to adjust its tapering due to economic weakness in the US. It would send conflicting signals to forex traders, and USD is likely to violent swing with more downward, sell off sharply with heavy volume. Technical view- The US dollar is trading below the moving average's and hammered towards the October 2013 low at $79. The US dollar made a double top at the end of January 2014, and kept on correcting itself. It was unable to move above the 50SMA. In the H4 and hourly charts, RSI is under an oversold condition, expecting a pullback with the previous support at 79.0. A break below the 79.0 mark will push it up to 78.6, 77.0, and 75.75.

 

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 10, 201

 
 
The pair is reaching the major resistance zone 0.9152-0.9166. On Friday's trading session the price broke the resistance level 0.9080 and made high at 0.9133. In the Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 0.9058, coming back and trading below the previous resistance level 0.9080. Currently the pair looks attractive for buying only if it trades above this level for the targets 0.9122, 0.9166, 0.92 and 0.9256. On the downside 0.8972 and 0.8923 is the strong support. Break below 0.8923 looks weak and could fall up to 0.8730, 0.8693 and 0.8659.

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 12, 204

 
The EUR/USD pair stays above the 21EMA level in 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.3477. The uptrend could be expected to continue after a minor consolidation, and the next target would be at 1.4000 area. Initial support is at 1.3825, and the key support is at the trend line, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of theuptrend. In the H4 chart, oscillators are giving a sell indication. We could expect the price to fall before it moves further. If the price breaks below the level 1.38509, it will fall up to 1.3834 1.38232 and 1.3799. More downside only below 1.3799 towards 1.3718. 
Recommendations- Sell below 1.38509 targets1.3834, 1.3823, 1.3799 and 1.3718 
Buy above 1.3877 targets 1.3898, 1.3915 and 1.40(above 1.3910 only further up move).

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Mach 13, 2014

 

 
EUR/USD remains in uptrend from 1.3477, the fall from 1.3915 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Key support is at the upward trend line in 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and the next target would be in the 1.4000 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of the uptrend. In the daily chart, the pair was facing stiff resistance at the level of 1.3915. The next up move happens only above the level of 1.3915 for 1.40. During yesterday's trading session, we recommended a buy call above the level of 1.3877 with targets at 1.3898, 1.3915, and 1.40. We are waiting for the final target. On the downside, a move below the level of 1.3880, the price will fall to 1.3860, 1.3833, 1.3812, and 1.3782 (intraday). A fresh breakout is only above 1.3964 for 1.40 and 1.4171. Intraday recommendation- 
Buy above 1.3915 with targets at 1.3664 and 1.40. 
Sell below 1.3880 with targets at 1.3860, 1.3833, 1.3812, and 1.3782.

 

 

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 14, 2014

 

The pair has been trying to cross the resistance level of 0.9085. If the pair closes above the level of 0.9085, then we can see a huge momentum upside towards the targets at 0.9205, 0.9246, 0.9450, and 0.9516. The pair did multiple attempts to cross the 0.9085 level from its daily high made on January 13, 2014. It succeeded three times, but was unable to close above that level. On the down side, 0.8992, 0.8977, and 0.8929 are the strong support zones. A move below the level of 0.8890 will lead to a fall towards 0.8730, 0.8693, and 0.8660. The daily momentum indicators show a buy signal. 

 
Positional 
S1 0.8992 R1 0.9085 
S2 0.8890 R2 0.9205
S3 0.0.8693 R3 0.9246

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 17, 2014

 
Technical outlook and chart setups: 
1. The EUR/JPY pair seems to be bouncing off right from the trend line support as seen here. Please note that this region is also the past resistance turned support area. It is recommended to book profits from short positions taken earlier. Aggressive trade setup would be to go long again, risk remains below 140.00. 
2. Immediate support is at 138.50/136.50 (intermediary), followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower, while resistance is at 144.00 (intermediary), followed by 145.50 respectively. 3. The structure reveals that a bullish bounce here, would bring back control with bulls again and prices should rally back towards fresh highs.
 Trading recommendations:
 Book profits on short positions. Initiate longs now (141.05), set stop below 140.00, target is open.

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 19, 2014


The euro has risen in what could turn out to be an ending pattern. Based on the wave count below, we are in wave c of E up with the upper line at 1.396. Will it stop there or not? Will it take a European intervention to stop it? The Dollar index broke below the 79.5 mark, consolidating near the lowest levels. A break below the recent lows showing continued weakness in the dollar is going on. If the dollar goes into a collapse, trillions of the US dollars will start flowing out into other markets, then I am not sure what it will look like. 1.396 is going to be an important level. In Asia, the pair is trading at 1.3928. The pair is holding above the 21EMA in H4 chart. On the downside, support exists at 1.3910, 1.3891, 1.3862, and 1.3833. If the pair breaks the 1.3833 levels, it will drift to 1.3707. We can expect a strong reversal to happen at the level between 1.3845 and 1.3833. On the up side, if the pair trades above the 1.3966 level, we will see 1.4 and 1.41 levels.

 

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 20, 2014

 

EUR/USD is trading near key support at the level of 21EMA at 1.3816. Today in Asia, the pair has broken the level and made a low at 1.3814 as of now. As we recommended earlier, hold shorts until the pair crosses the level of 1.396. In the daily chart, the RSI is showing a sell sign. For today, trading perspective at 1.3803 is the key level, if the pair holds this level, we will see some pullback from the current level. 
On the upside, 1.3893 and 1.3945 is the major resistance level fon a hourly basis. In the H4 chart, RSI is in oversold condition, we can see some pullback. On the downside, if the pair breaks the level of 1.3803 it will drift towards 1.3774 1.3708, and 1.3643.

Recommendation

- 1.3803 is the key level.

 Intraday Buy with sl 1.3773 for targets at 1.3899, 1.3945.

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Technical analysis of Silver for March 21, 2014

 

 

Unlike gold, silver failed to go above the 40-week average. It lacks the same impulsive behavior so it might be doing something different. $20.42 is the 20wma support, below which I would consider that its still forming a triangle and could go down to the lower line at $19.22$.


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Technical analysis of Silver for March 21, 2014

 

 

Unlike gold, silver failed to go above the 40-week average. It lacks the same impulsive behavior so it might be doing something different. $20.42 is the 20wma support, below which I would consider that its still forming a triangle and could go down to the lower line at $19.22$.


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 24, 201

 

Overview 
In the today's H4 chart, we can notice that the pair opened this week below the Resistance level of 169.20 that would give the pair a good opportunity to start its bearish move. Actually, as shown, the pair took a slightly downward move and currently is trading above the support level of 168.50 and below the resistance level of 169.20 directly. More bearish signals are still expected as long as the pair is trading below the resistance level, so we can consider our first target few pips above the support level of 167.75, then it is preferred to wait for breaking this support level and closing 4H below to continue the bearish move. 

Resistance and support levels: R3 (170.50), R2 (169.75), R1 (169.20), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3 (167.00).

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 25, 2014

 

USDCAD broke above the prior 1.1224 high and reached as high as 1.1279, indicating that the uptrend from 1.0182 has resumed. Further rise could be expected, and the next target would be in the 1.1500 area. Key support is at the upward trend line in the daily chart, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of the uptrend. 
On an intraday basis, the pair has support at 1.1180 and 1.1149. Whereas 1.1149 is the major support; if it breaks, we will see the 1.1083 level. 
S1 1.1180 R1 1.1205 
S2 1.1149 R2 1.1246 

S3 1.1083 R3 1.1279

 

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

 

The USD/JPY moved sideways in a narrow range between 102.01 and 102.50. Resistance is at 102.50, a break above this level will trigger another rise to test the 103.76 resistance. Support is at 102.01, a break down below this level will signal completion of the uptrend from 101.20, then the following downward movement could bring the price to the 100 and 98.00 zone.

 

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 27, 2014

 
 
In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data and the US will release some economic data such as Unemployment Claims, Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Pending Home Sales m/m, Natural Gas Storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
Resistance. 3: 102.38. 
Resistance. 2: 102.18. 
Resistance. 1: 101.99. 
Support. 1: 101.74. 
Support. 2: 101.54. 
Support. 3: 101.34. 
 
DESCRIPTION: 
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.34) and resistance 3 (102.38). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 28, 2014

 

The pair has been in a downtrend from the 1.1279 level. The pair has kept correcting for the last 5 days. It has erased all its gains this week. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.1031. The pair is trading near the support trend line (purple) and below all the near moving averages that raises bearish view. On the downside, the pair has support at 1.0955 and 1.0910. A move below the level of 1.0910 makes real problems for bulls, and bears will take the pair towards the blue trend lines and the last lower support level at 1.0687 (200EMA).

In the H4 chart, RSI is giving a buy signal. As of now, the pair is trading at 1.1031. We expect a pullback in 1 or 2 days. On the upside, it is facing resistance at 1.1089, above this, it will fly up to 1.1119, 1.114, and 1.1162.


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Technical analysis of Gold for April 01, 2014

 

Gold prices may recieve support from the Asian physical demand, but ultimately we would expect the rising costs of production to provide a floor under which gold prices will stop falling. As these rising costs of production catches up with the price of gold, so prices will form a base and eventually begin moving higher once more. 
In the Asia's trading session, gold is trading at $1,282. Before I have started writing this report, gold dropped to $1,277 and then pulled back. Due to oversold levels in the H1 and H4 chart, gold pulled back from the lower levels. As I recommended earlier, gold will gain some buying support between $1,279-$1,260 levels. In the H1 chart, the price is making some base around the level of $1,282. I prefer to go long with sl at $1,277 for targets at $1,287, $1,291, and $1,293 levels. On the upside, $1,294 is the strong resistance level for intraday perspective, above this the price will push towards $1,298 and $1,304 levels. On the down side, if the price breaks the $1,277 levels, go short for targets at $1,270, $1,265, and $1,261 levels.

 

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for April 02, 2014

 

We expect this pair to continue to consolidate with the possibility of a breakout or breakdown after Friday's numbers, but until then it is going to be very difficult to imagine the market doing anything of substance as the area has been so well-defined. The pair behavior is very sensitive to these particular announcement. Because of this, we feel that this is one that we can only buy at this moment time, at least until we see what the job numbers (US-non farm payroll, CAD-employment data) are. 
The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.1279 and it has been consolidating near 1.1 levels. RSI is supporting for pull back view in the H4 & H1 charts. For hourly basis, the pair is facing resistance at 1.0380. One can enter longs above this level for targets at 1.0469 immediately. Above this, 1.1070 and 1.10917 are the resistance levels. On the downside, 1.1 is the strong support.
On an intraday basis, the pair is facing resistance at 1.105. If the pair crosses the purple line, it will fly up to 1.1081 (200EMA) and 1.1123 (50SMA). This view is valid until it breaks the 1.1 support levels. On the down side, if the pair breaks the 1.1 levels, the pair will move up to 1.0955 (March 06 low) and 1.0910 (February's low) and 1.08 levels. Until it holds the 1.1 levels, we can see a bit of pullback and bear attack will be possible, once the pair starts trading below 1.1 levels. 
In fact, it's not until we get below 1.09 that we could possibly think about shorting this market. It obviously looks very supportive, and as a result, we simply will not sell until we are well below that level. In the meantime, even a pullback from here should be a nice buying opportunity as far as we can say, and with that we are in somewhat of a buy only mode".

 

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 03, 2014

Technical outlook and chart setups: 

1. Silver finally shows concrete signs of having bottomed out around $19.50 now. Yesterday the metal rallied past the $20.00 levels comfortable. It is expected to continue the rally in coming sessions. The chart view here shows a concrete bullish reversal signal. Recommendations are to remain long for now, risk remains at $19.25. 

 

2. Resistance is at $21.70 (bulls would like to take this out now), followed by $22.30 and $23.00, while support is seen at $19.00, followed by $18.75 and lower respectively. 

 

3.The structure remains constructive for bulls till prices remain above $19.00. $20.20/30 is immediate price target before a pullback. 

 

Trading recommendations: 

Remain long for now, set stop at $19.00, target is open.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 07, 2014

 

In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and the US will release some economic data such as US-Consumer Credit m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low volatility during the US session. 
 
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
Resistance. 3: 103.77. 
Resistance. 2: 103.57. 
Resistance. 1: 103.35. 
Support. 1: 103.11. 
Support. 2: 102.91. 
Support. 3: 102.70. 
 
DESCRIPTION: 
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.70) and resistance 3 (103.77). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

 

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 08, 2014

 
The pair is in an uptrend at 0.87 levels. The pair made a high at 0.8952 on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.8876 in an Aisa's trading session. The pair is facing a strong resistance at 0.88788 (50SMA); above this, 0.8928 is a strong resistance level. Below 50SMA, 0.8866 and 0.8853 are the small support levels. Until the pair trades below the 50SMA, it looks weak. RSI is giving a buying signal. The pair is looking for a strong base to change its direction upwards. After a day close above the 0.8878 level, fresh up move will be intact for 0.8928 first and 0.8952. We will see new high (0.90) when the pair closes above the 0.8928 level. On the down side, the levels of 0.8815, 0.8787, and 0.8699 are the support levels.

In the H4 chart, the pair is making a lower low and higher highs formation. Currently, it is looking for support levels. RSI is not favoring longs. The support levels exist at 0.8871 and 0.8859. In case of a break below these levels, it will fall to 0.884, 0.8820, and 0.8785 levels. On the upside, if the pair holds the 0.8871 and 0.8859 levels intradaily, it will fly up to 0.8889 and 0.8930 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 09, 2014

 

The pair is in a downtrend from 1.3967 levels. In the H4 chart, the pair came out from the 10-day trading pattern. The pair is doing what the cable is doing. The pair is facing resistance at 1.3810, above that, at 1.3820. The momentum indicators are favoring sell side. For 2 or 3 days perspective, sell on rallies is the best strategy. On the up side, if the pair crosses the 1.3820 levels, it will fly up to 1.3876 levels.

The positional trend will change once the pair closes above the 1.396 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.3770, below this, 1.3755 is the strong support. Weakness will persist in this pair when the pair breaks and closes below the 1.3755 level. If it happens, the pair will drift all the way to 1.3673 and 1.3643 levels easily. If the pair closes below 1.3737 (yesterday's low), weakness starts in this pair.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 10, 2014
 

 

In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m, Bank Lending y/y, Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Natural Gas Storage, 30-y Bond Auction, Federal Budget Balance. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
Resistance. 3: 102.46.
Resistance. 2: 102.26. 
Resistance. 1: 102.06. 
Support. 1: 101.81. 
Support. 2: 101.61. 
Support. 3: 101.41. 

DESCRIPTION: 
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.41) and resistance 3 (102.46). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
 
 
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 11, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, CGPI y/y, M2 Money Stock y/y, 30-y Bond Auction; the US will release some economic data such as PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian and US sessions. 

 
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
Resistance. 3: 102.10. 
Resistance. 2: 101.90. 
Resistance. 1: 101.70. 
Support. 1: 101.45. 
Support. 2: 101.25. 
Support. 3: 101.05. 
 
DESCRIPTION: 
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.05) and resistance 3 (102.10). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

 

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 14, 2014

 

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data and the US will release some economic data such as Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Business Inventories m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session. 
 
TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
Resistance. 3: 102.02. 
Resistance. 2: 101.82. 
Resistance. 1: 101.62. 
Support. 1: 101.38. 
Support. 2: 101.19. 
Support. 3: 100.98. 
 
DESCRIPTION: 
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (100.98) and resistance 3 (102.02). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
 
 
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Technical analysis of USD for April 15, 2014

 

USD 
The US Dollar Index fell during the course of last week, but remained above the 79 level. The 79 level is of course is supportive, and we believe it is a major inflection point. We feel that this market will go to the 84 level, given enough time in order to see the bulls continuing to take control of a market that they've had a strong presence in. On top of that, you can also make an argument for consolidation between this area and the 81.25 level, as we have seen it in the last six months proved to be relatively tight. With that, we most certainly have an upward bias at this point, but recognize that a breakdown below the 79 level would in fact be very significant. On that move, we would expect this market to drop all the way down to the 77.83 and 75 levels, but it would take some time. The level of 78.60 would of course offer support as well, but it is much more of a minor area than the 79 is, as we continue to see the market bounce from its handle. If we break above the 81.25 level, we can see a new high this year.

 

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2014

British inflation fell to its lowest in over four years in March, easing pressure on living standards and raising the prospect that prices may now be rising less than wages for the first time in years. Tuesday's data showed that consumer price inflation dropped to 1.6 percent in March from February's 1.7 percent - the lowest level since October 2009, according to the Office for National Statistics. 

Wage numbers are due today, they are forecast to show average earnings growth picking up to 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent - which if true, would be the first time that wages have outpaced inflation since April 2010. British wages typically rose by around 4-5 percent a year before the financial crisis, but since mid-2008 have mostly risen by less than inflation. 
The pair has been in a down trend from 1.6820 levels. The pair is taking support at 1.67 levels and facing resistance at 1.6750. Currently, it is trading between 1.67-1.6750 levels. Break out either side will give a room to further levels. If the pair breaks the upper band at 1.6750, it will fly up to 1.6787 and 1.6820. On the down side the pair has support at 1.67, 1.666 and 1.6640. The level at 1.6640 is very crucial for bulls, if it breaks, it will breaks 1.6570 and 1.6550.More analysis - at instaforex.com


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