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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 6, 2017

Wave summary:
The failure to rally has shifted the short-term count in favor of a triangle consolidation unfolding for wave B. If this is the case, then support seen at 123.11 should be able to protect the downside for a rally above resistance seen at 123.31 that confirms wave C is developing for a rally towards 134.54 as the ideal upside target.
R3: 124.70
R2: 124.43
R1: 124.13
Pivot: 123.80
S1: 123.68
S2: 123.53
S3: 123.11

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 124.10 was hit for a loss of 55 pips. We bought EUR again at 123.85 and will place our stop at 123.05.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 08, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Minimum Bid Rate, Revised GDP q/q, French Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1308.
Strong Resistance:1.1302.
Original Resistance: 1.1291.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1280.
Target Inner Area: 1.1254.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1228.
Original Support: 1.1217.
Strong Support: 1.1206.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1200.

News are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 14, 2017

Wave summary:
Not really much to add here. The triangle consolidation remains the preferred outlook. We continue to look for wave d closer to 134.62 before the final dip lower in wave e to complete the triangle consolidation, setting the stage for renewed upside pressure towards 134.58 and likely even closer to 138.52.

Only an unexpected break below 122.53 will shift to an alternate corrective structure.

R3: 124.04
R2: 123.73
R1: 123.40
Pivot: 123.20
S1: 123.00
S2: 122.77
S3: 122.53

Trading recommendation:
We are neutral for now.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 16, 2017

Wave summary:

Our preferred count remains that a low likely was seen with the test of 1.5370 and wave iii/ higher is ready to develop. That said, we need a break above the resistance line near 1.5532 to confirm that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ higher to above 1.6237 is developing. Until the break above the resistance-line near 1.5532 is seen, we must allow for a retest of the 1.5370 low and even a spike below, but that should be short lived.

R3: 1.5564
R2: 1.5517
R1: 1.5480
Pivot: 1.5460
S1: 1.5453
S2: 1.5424
S3. 1.5370

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5540 with stop placed at 1.5340. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5532 and use the same stop.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of USDX for June 20, 2017

USDX was favored by the bulls above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's heading to break above last Friday's highs. If that happens, we can expect a target to be reached around 97.75, which should add strength to bulls' force in the short-term. By the other side, if the index pulls back at the current stage, then a testing of the 96.95 level is likely to happen.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.41 / 97.75
H1 chart's support levels: 96.95 / 96.70

Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.41, take profit is at 97.75 and stop loss is at 97.07.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for June 22, 2017

Recently USD/CHF has been quite corrective in nature after the price broke above the 0.97 resistance after breaking it below with a daily close. Currently, the price is residing inside a corrective range area between 0.97 to 0.98. CHF has been dominating USD since the negative employment report of USD this month and CHF is expected to dominate further if the upcoming CHF economic reports come out positive. Today CHF Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to rise to 2.44B from previous value of 1.97B and as the export demand and currency demand is directly linked for which a positive Trade Balance reports is expected to provide more strength to CHF to gain against USD in the future. On the USD side today, Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to rise to 241k from the previous figure of 237k, as the expectation is quite negative on the USD, positive Trade Balance report is expected to help CHF to gain further in the coming days. If the USD Unemployment Claims report comes out better than expected then the price is expected to remain inside the range of 0.97-0.98 area in the coming days until any high impact economic events of the currencies publish in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing between the range of 0.97 to 0.98 area. As a strong bearish trend in place and recent impulsive bearish move in this pair, currently more bearish movement in this pair is expected but a daily close below 0.97 will confirm the further downward movement in this pair with a target towards 0.9550 support area. The bearish bias will continue until the price breaks above 0.98 resistance level with a daily close above it.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of USDX for June 27, 2017

USDX is being capped by the resistance level of 97.42 and it's targeting the resistance level of 97.84 as the next key area for sellers. There is not a clear trend in the index amid sideways' start of the week for most of the markets. If the support level of 97.10 gives up in favor of the bears, then it can decline towards 96.87.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.43 / 97.84
H1 chart's support levels: 97.10 / 96.87

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.43, take profit is at 97.84 and stop loss is at 97.00.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of USDX for June 29, 2017

Overview:

USDX is accelerating the downside and it looks can reach the support zone of 95.77 in coming hours. If the index manages to consolidate its price action below 95.77, then it's likely to test the support area of 95.10. However, we expect a recovery to take place, focusing on the resistance zone of 96.77, which coincides with the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20
H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 03, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence, Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 112.87.
Resistance. 2: 112.65.
Resistance. 1: 112.43.
Support. 1: 112.16.
Support. 2: 111.94.
Support. 3: 111.72.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Eurozone inflation is not happy

If the buyers of the European currency make an attempt to create an upward movement in the first half of the day, then the weak data on eurozone inflation will scare the rest of the traders who are willing to acquire risky assets, at least for today. In the afternoon, many markets will be closed due to the US Independence Day.

Eurozone producer prices fell again in May indicating weak inflation despite the faster economic growth in the area.

According to the European Union's statistics agency, the eurozone producer price index declined by 0.4% from April's data. Although, compared with the same period in 2016, the index grew by 3.3%. The month-to-month drop was bigger that the 0.1% decrease that economists expected.

Slowing inflation may again be a major headache for the European Central Bank which is currently carrying out various methods to help the economy including implementation of negative interest rates and the asset purchase program to try and achieve stable economic growth and a basic inflation rate under 2.0% .

The statements of the ECB President last week was not able to give assurance that the central bank will immediately reduce monetary policies to stimulate the economy.

The reaction of the Australian dollar to the statements made by the Reserve Bank of Australia may indicate a turning point in the upward movement that began last month.

According to reports released today, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% saying that interest rates are consistent with their objectives in relation with the GDP and inflation. The bank also expects the gradual strengthening of the Australian economy that will be positively affected by the continued large-scale acceleration of global growth.

An important issue for the regulator is the active strengthening of the Australian dollar which will complicate the adjustment of the economy and lower wage growth. As for the Australian labor market, the RBA economists are satisfied with the increase in employment growth in recent months. Despite this, the market indicators themselves remain ambiguous.

From a technical point of view, the five-day growth of the Australian dollar should have undergone a downward correction. However, it's still very early to talk about a turning point for buyers. It is possible that when returning to the lower limit of 0.7549, there will be a demand again for the Australian dollar which is expected to continue towards an upward trend in the medium-term for the trading instrument. Also, large resistance levels around 0.7725 and 0.7765 have not been updated. After testing, one could definitely expect a larger downward correction for the Australian dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Strong Data from ADP will Support the Dollar

The Fed's minutes of meeting on June did not show any surprise. With the fact of continuing the Bank's plan to normalize monetary policy with some minor restrictions. On the back of this, the market players cautiously assess the incoming data from the US economic statistics.

In consideration of the published figures, the US dollar was able to gain support, however, not so significant. Today, taking off the market will focus on the release of preliminary data from ADP employment in the private sector of the American economy. They traditionally precede the release of the official figures from the US Department of Labor, which will be issued tomorrow.

According to the forecast from Bloomberg news agency, the number of new jobs in the private sector should grow by 180,000 in June. It can be recalled that the May figures were at the level of 253,000. The consensus forecast assumes a range from 140,000 to 253,000.

It can be assumed that if the data from ADP proves to be positive, holding out or above the forecast level, then it can push the dollar to a new local growth, which will only heighten the wave of publishing the same strong data from the Department of Labor.

Recent developments in the market clearly indicate that the presentation of investors about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy, though with a creak, but impacts the minds of the most stubborn market players. Therefore, the good news from the labor market will only support the dollar on the wave of keeping the plans of the Federal Reserve.

While other important data that should pay attention today are the figures of applications for unemployment benefits, the index of US business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from the ISM for June, of course, the data from the US Department of Energy. In addition, it is expected that FRS member Powell and ECB representative Praet will make some comments. Also, the minutes of June meeting of the ECB will be presented.

Forecast of the day:
The pair EURUSD is still in the short-term downtrend followed by the strengthening of the US dollar. It is expected that when the ADP data came in lower than forecasts, then the pair will resume a smooth correction down to 1.1280 after breaking through the level of 1.1320.

The pair USDJPY is trading above 113.00, hovering in the range of 113.00-113.60. A breakout of the upper range limits the wave of positive data from the ADP which would likely lead to the pair's growth to 114.25.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The Growth of the World Economy May Slow Down

The absence of significant fundamental data causes the market to remain in a state of inactivity. Low volatility today locks several currency pairs in the side channels.

A slight strengthening of the euro was seen only at the beginning of the European session. Growth took place after data showed that Germany's exports in May this year revealed significant growth. This happened against a backdrop of good recovery in global demand since the start of this year.

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the export of goods in May 2017 rose by 1.4% and reached 107.9 billion euros. Compared with the same period of 2016, German exports rose by 14.1%.

Imports of goods did not lag behind export growth. According to data, in May of this year, imports to Germany grew by 1.2% compared with April and amounted to 87.6 billion euros. Compared to May 2016, the indicator rose by 16.2%.

Overall, Germany's trade surplus in May amounted to 20.3 billion euros, while economists had expected an increase of up to 20.1 billion euros.

An interesting forecast was published today by UBS, as it says that by next year the ECB will buy bonds of approximately €180 billion. UBS believes that the European Central Bank will announce a reduction in the program in September of this year, and by January 2018 it will reduce monthly purchases from 60 to 40 billion euros. In June, according to UBS analysts, this program will end.

If we proceed from this forecast, the demand for the euro in the summer will remain within the maximum range of 1.1450-1.1600. Overcoming this critical range will be possible only after an actual announcement of the completion of the bond purchasing program has been made by the ECB, before the Federal Reserve implements programs aimed at reducing the balance sheet, as well as another hike in interest rates, which is also scheduled for early autumn.

Today the report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development showed that its composite leading indicator remained steady at the level of 100 points in May of this year compared with 100 points in April.

The OECD revised the likelihood of accelerating global growth downwards. Mainly due to uncertain growth prospects for the US, UK and Russia, which have declined. In terms of positive data, we can note good prospects of accelerating growth for the economies of China and France.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Yellen's words will be fatal for the dollar

Speeches by members of the Federal Reserve, Brainard and Kashkari, caused the US dollar to collapse on Tuesday. Their words raised fears that the Fed will not risk raising rates anymore for this year and perhaps in the next year too.

In the address of Fed representative, Lael Brainard, she expressed doubts that the next increase in interest rates would occur this year.She reasoned that there are fears caused by the slowing rate of inflation. Despite this, Brainard still actively advocates the beginning of the Central Bank balance sheet reduction saying that it will happen "in the near future." She said that the strong labor market indicates an acceleration in economic activity and that this chance should not be missed. It is necessary to start a smooth and, most importantly, an expected reduction in the bank balance of $4.5 trillion which was mainly accumulated during the three quantitative easing programs.

The most radical comment came from a well-known opponent of the monetary policy tightening, Fed member, Neel Kashkari. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Kashkari, said yesterday that the slowdown in wage growth rate indicates the absence of "overheating" in the economy. Hence, inflationary pressure is not so strong. That's why there is no reason for raising interest rates. He once again confirmed the thesis that the rate hike is a mistake and can lead to negative consequences. Kashkari is the most consistent opponent of tightening the Fed's monetary policy.

Of course, against this background and because of today's expectations on Federal Reserve head, Janet Yellen's speech to the US Congress, the dollar on Tuesday dropped significantly against the euro and the yen. This is caused by the uncertainty in market regarding what the head of the world's biggest central bank would say.

It can be assumed that if her speech is reasonably optimistic today, then the weakening of the dollar will soon stop and it may even grow against the euro and the yen on the wave of partial closure of long positions in these currencies. Further growth in the dollar may resume only if Friday's inflation data in the States prove to be positive. However, if Yellen expresses even some doubt that interest rates will be raised this year again, then the weakening of the dollar will continue. This will also increase the wave of inflation data that is already high, if she disappoints. Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD currency pair is corrected down after reaching a new local maximum, However, it can continue to decline on if the speech to the Congress of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, contains positive sentiment regarding the prospects of the US economy. On this wave, the price decline below the 1.1445 mark may turn lower to the 1.1385 mark and then to 1.1320.

The USD/JPY currency pair fell on the wave of uncertain growth in the Fed's monetary policy report which will be presented today along with Yellen's speech in the Congress. However, the situation may change if the report and the speech are positive. In this case, the price can overcome the 113.60 mark and strive to the 114.25 mark.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The dollar remained without support

The US dollar finished the week with large-scale sales, never seeing a single factor that could support it. The formal reason for the decline in investor confidence was the report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on inflation, but this was not the only reason.

Consumer prices remained unchanged in June while annual inflation slowed to 1.6% from 1.9% a month earlier. Both indicators were worse than expected.

Also an unpleasant surprise was the decline in retail sales for the second month in a row. Experts expected a slight increase. The slowdown in consumer activity is an alarming factor as it indicates that incoming signals, one after another, about slower economic growth are not accidental and will likely cause a crisis to develop.

The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index according to the University of Michigan was significantly lower than expected at 93.1 points in July against the forecast of 95.0 points and last month's figure of 95.1 points. The subindex of expectations are declining at the fastest rate, indicating that consumers are preparing for a deterioration in the outlook for the coming months.

The GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts the US GDP growth for the second quarter at 2.4%. This is higher than the result of the first quarter but significantly below expectations. The first estimate, which was presented in May, came out at 4.3%. At the time, it seemed that the positive momentum in the economy will develop but for two months in a row, the key macroeconomic indicators are worse than forecasts.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York expects that GDP growth will be at 1.9% in Q2. However, this estimate may be too optimistic. At any rate, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking in Congress, said that achieving an economic growth of 3% "will be pretty hard." Recalling the basic scenario by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the average annual growth is set at 4%. Even in this case, the budget deficit in the next ten years will grow to 1.5 trillion dollars and reach a GDP of 5.2%. Weaker growth will significantly accelerate the development of a negative scenario. It can only be overcome through swift and decisive reforms while the situation develops in the opposite way. As indicated in the report of the Ministry of Finance published on Thursday, the budget deficit in June amounted to 90.233 billion dollar within the nine months of the current fiscal year. The negative balance grew by 31% and reached 523 billion. There is no reason to expect that the situation may change as the collection of taxes is reduced. Against the background of a drop in consumer activity, there is no chance of an increase of tax collection.

Actually, it was the reassessment of the player's prospects for the development of the situation that caused the dollar to fall sharply on Friday. It's not just a matter of low inflation. The fact is that even optimistic models (and the optimistic CBO forecast) do not see good exit scenarios. The Fed may begin to reduce the balance sheets in the coming months. In any case, the preparation of public opinion for this step is being carried out purposefully. Yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that it is necessary to start reducing the Fed's balance sheet "very soon", possibly in September. Low inflation, in his opinion, is temporary. He also added that the achievement of full employment will contribute to higher prices.

The beginning of the reduction in the balance of the Fed means terminating the practice of refinancing revenues. In other words, the Fed will gradually reduce the repayment of government debts which, against the background of a growing budget deficit and a reduction in the collection of taxes, can have extremely unpleasant consequences for the Trump administration. In September, the government should already receive a result regarding the level of borrowing from the Congress. This will exhaust the latest resources for financing current activities and will make them face the prospect of technical default. However, in order for the Congress to meet Trump and raise the ceiling of national debt, it will be necessary to convince him of the feasibility plans for reforming the tax and health policies. It is necessary to present these plans formally.

Thus, for the dollar, there is still no reason to resume growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 19, 2017

Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7307. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.7307 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. So, major support is seen at the level of 0.7307. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7307 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7372. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7372, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7287.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 21, 2017

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair.
Pivot: 0.9590.
The swissy fell from the level of 0.9665 to bottom at 0.9523. The USD/CHF pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.9523 (the double bottom). Current price is around the spot of 0.9520. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.9523 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Hence, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9523; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.9523 and 0.9665. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 0.9665, while immediate resistance is found at 0.9590. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.9665 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9665, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9665. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.9746. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.9523 with the first target at the level of 1.9590 and continue towards the levels of 0.9665 and 0.9746. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.9590; the market will decline further to the level of 0.9453.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2017

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to a strong support at the level of 0.9579 yesterday. The level of 0.9579 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major support today. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.9575. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9579 and 0.9728. In the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9666 and 0.9728. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 0.9666 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, a strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9575 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9666. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9666 (the first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9728 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.952.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

EUR/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

The price has bounced above our buying entry and is fast approaching our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 130.78 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a drop towards 129.96 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a strong drop from.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY expecting drops. We are also expecting EUR weakness with strong resistance seen on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

Sell below 130.78. Stop loss is at 131.08. Take profit is at 129.96.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Inflation data reflected on the euro

Today's inflation data released in the first half of the day was not very encouraging for the European Central Bank. The regulator expects to achieve a target inflation rate just below 2.0%, which is still significantly out of its reach.

Producer prices fell in June, which goes against the ECB's plans to wind down monetary stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.

According to the European Union's statistics agency, the producer price index of the eurozone in June this year fell by 0.1% compared with May. It should be noted that the last increase of this index was recorded in January this year. The only consolation is that, compared with June last year, the index rose by 2.5%.

As seen from the recent data, the acceleration of economic growth has little effect on inflation.

Yesterday, data was released, which indicated that the euro area's GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter and by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The current exchange rate of the euro against a number of other currencies also creates a number of setbacks to exports and could adversely affect the rate of economic growth by the fourth quarter of this year.

Today it also became known that the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in Switzerland increased by 0.8 points in July, to 60.9 points. Such indicators indicate very serious signs of further acceleration of activity in the manufacturing industry in Switzerland.

Nevertheless, the Swiss franc still remains under pressure against the euro and the US dollar. The USD/CHF pair rose sharply, having reached the level of 0.9700, the breakthrough of which will open the opportunity to update the July highs to around 0.9730.

Data in the second half of the day on the labor market in the US did not make have any significant impact to the market.

According to the report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 178, 000 in July this year, while economists forecast a bigger job increase of 180,000. The June data were revised. So, the number of new jobs for the month was 191,000, not 158,000, as previously reported.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 08, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Mortgage Delinquencies, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1855.
Strong Resistance:1.1848.
Original Resistance: 1.1837.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1826.
Target Inner Area: 1.1798.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1770.
Original Support: 1.1759.
Strong Support: 1.1748.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1741.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 10, 2017

Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to work its way higher towards the expected target at 1.6236. This resistance should only be able to provide temporary resistance, before the next swing higher towards 1.6969.

Short-term support is now seen at 1.6005 and again at 1.5920.

R3: 1.6236
R2: 1.6196
R1: 1.6081
Pivot: 1.6050
S1: 1.6005
S2: 1.5959
S3: 1.5920

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5825. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6005 and use the same stop at 1.5825.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

US dollar: a massive reassessment of risk is coming

The US dollar, which briskly started the week, lost all of its trump cards and was again sold out on Friday amid muffled data on inflation.

Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in July, an annual increase of 1.7%. Both indicators are better than a month ago, but worse than expected. Experts forecasted prices to rise by 0.2% in the monthly data and 1.8% in the annual data.

Yesterday, the producer prices report was published. It also turned out to be worse than expected. The annual price index rose by 1.9% which is worse than the 2.0% results from the previous month. It is even much worse than the expectation of 2.2%. Compared to the results from June, prices have dropped by 0.1%. The worse-than-expected data indicates that there is still a significant imbalance in the market between estimates of the state of the US economy and real macroeconomic indicators.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said on Friday that the US Federal Reserve can wait in increasing interest rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. Kashkari drew attention the fact that the wage growth remains slow and a premature rate increase may lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

In fact, over the past week, the probability of a rate hike in December, according to the CME, fell from 48% to 35.9%. The expectations of this next step by the Fed moved to June 2018. The shift of expectations for six months is a lot. In fact, bulls in dollars are deprived reasons to go on the offensive in the foreseeable future.

Another factor of the weakness of the dollar was the geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula. US President Donald Trump warned Pyongyang against attacks on Guam, where the US military base is located or on US allies. The markets began to respond to the verbal war, but the probability of a military solution to the issue at the moment is extremely small. The probability of a strike against North Korea will cause Russia to be extremely displeased with China and will promote an even closer rapprochement which clearly does not meet the long-term interests of the United States.

A noticeable increase in the degree of tension is not accidental and quite possibly intended to hide something more substantial than Pyongyang's nuclear program. On Thursday, the Treasury report on the budget was published despite the annual dynamics for 17 months. Revenue growth cannot compensate for the decline of the previous period and ensure the fulfillment of government obligations. Perhaps Trump's formidable rhetoric about North Korea is of an intra-American nature. Trump tries to score points before a large-scale battle with the Congress on a number of crucial issues. Hour X is approaching, the government must submit a draft budget for the 2018 financial year. In any case, it is impossible to balance falling incomes with expenditures without raising the ceiling of borrowing. Moreover, the formation of budget is meaningless without the approval of a tax reform, the project of which has not yet been submitted to the Congress. Perhaps Trump's administration will try to combine these two issues into one. The markets expect active government action in the near future.

On Tuesday, data on retail sales and import and export prices will be published in July. Forecasts are moderately positive. If the released data is no worse than expectations, it can stop the decline in the dollar. On Wednesday, the market's attention will be focused on the publication of the protocol of the July FOMC meeting. Players will assess the likelihood of the start of a quantitative tightening program in September.

In any case, there are more questions than answers. The dollar cannot rely on either economic growth or geopolitical stability. While there is advantage over defensive assets, primarily for yen and gold, there is a high probability that this mood will continue for the upcoming week.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 16, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Flash GDP q/q and Italian Prelim GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1796.
Strong Resistance:1.1789.
Original Resistance: 1.1778.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1767.
Target Inner Area: 1.1739.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1711.
Original Support: 1.1700.
Strong Support: 1.1689.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1682.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 18, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1771.
Strong Resistance:1.1764.
Original Resistance: 1.1753.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1742.
Target Inner Area: 1.1714.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1686.
Original Support: 1.1675.
Strong Support: 1.1664.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1657.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex