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Post Info TOPIC: Wave Analysis by InstaForex


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Wave Analysis by InstaForex


Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 08, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Mortgage Delinquencies, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1855.
Strong Resistance:1.1848.
Original Resistance: 1.1837.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1826.
Target Inner Area: 1.1798.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1770.
Original Support: 1.1759.
Strong Support: 1.1748.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1741.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Germany shows its poor performance

Data for France and Germany, which came out in the morning, were completely ignored by the market. The low intraday volatility, which did not exceed 20 points in the EURUSD pair, indicates that many investors and traders prefer to take some pause, since the US dollar's rally since Friday is no longer supported by large players, and many market participants are in a bit of a confusion and are unsure how to proceed.

According to the statistics agency, there is a decline in German imports and exports. However, this has not yet affected the foreign trade balance.

As indicated in the report, Germany's exports in June this year compared with May decreased by 2.8%, while the reduction in imports was 4.5%. Germany's foreign trade surplus in June amounted to 21.2 billion euros, while economists predicted the trade balance at the level of 21.4 billion euros. It should be noted that as early as May of this year, the surplus passed the 20 billion euros mark for the first time.

The reduction in industrial production in Germany, which was reported yesterday, along with today's data, is the first alarm bell that the economic growth rate of the first-largest euro-zone economy is gradually slowing down, which will undoubtedly affect the indicators for the second quarter of this year.

According to the statistics agency, the current deficit in France's balance of payments increased. This happened due to the sharper than expected decline in exports.

According to the report, in June this year the negative balance of the current account the balance of payments totaled to 2.1 billion euros against 1.9 billion euros in May. The trade deficit rose to 4.7 billion euros. The deficit of the state budget of France in June rose to 62.3 billion euros from 61.8 billion euros in May. Since the inauguration of the new president of France, very little time has passed, but, as we recall, Macron promised to give a lot of effort to combat the budget deficit.

In the afternoon, data came from The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, according to which retail sales increased during the reporting week. So, the index of sales in US retail chains increased by 2.4% for the week from July 30 to August 5, while in comparison with the same period last year the index grew by 1.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared to the morning review.

A further downward trend will be entirely fixed at yesterday's support level of 1.1790, to gain a foothold below which it has not yet been possible. Selling is recommended after the return of the trading instrument under the level of 1.1790, with the main goal of reducing the support area to 1.1740. A breakthrough in this area will open up the possibility of the euro falling to new weekly lows of around 1.1670.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 10, 2017

Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to work its way higher towards the expected target at 1.6236. This resistance should only be able to provide temporary resistance, before the next swing higher towards 1.6969.

Short-term support is now seen at 1.6005 and again at 1.5920.

R3: 1.6236
R2: 1.6196
R1: 1.6081
Pivot: 1.6050
S1: 1.6005
S2: 1.5959
S3: 1.5920

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5825. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6005 and use the same stop at 1.5825.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 11, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q, French Final CPI m/m, German WPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Core CPI m/m and CPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1825.
Strong Resistance:1.1818.
Original Resistance: 1.1807.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1796.
Target Inner Area: 1.1768.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1740.
Original Support: 1.1729.
Strong Support: 1.1718.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1711.

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US dollar: a massive reassessment of risk is coming

The US dollar, which briskly started the week, lost all of its trump cards and was again sold out on Friday amid muffled data on inflation.

Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in July, an annual increase of 1.7%. Both indicators are better than a month ago, but worse than expected. Experts forecasted prices to rise by 0.2% in the monthly data and 1.8% in the annual data.

Yesterday, the producer prices report was published. It also turned out to be worse than expected. The annual price index rose by 1.9% which is worse than the 2.0% results from the previous month. It is even much worse than the expectation of 2.2%. Compared to the results from June, prices have dropped by 0.1%. The worse-than-expected data indicates that there is still a significant imbalance in the market between estimates of the state of the US economy and real macroeconomic indicators.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said on Friday that the US Federal Reserve can wait in increasing interest rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. Kashkari drew attention the fact that the wage growth remains slow and a premature rate increase may lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

In fact, over the past week, the probability of a rate hike in December, according to the CME, fell from 48% to 35.9%. The expectations of this next step by the Fed moved to June 2018. The shift of expectations for six months is a lot. In fact, bulls in dollars are deprived reasons to go on the offensive in the foreseeable future.

Another factor of the weakness of the dollar was the geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula. US President Donald Trump warned Pyongyang against attacks on Guam, where the US military base is located or on US allies. The markets began to respond to the verbal war, but the probability of a military solution to the issue at the moment is extremely small. The probability of a strike against North Korea will cause Russia to be extremely displeased with China and will promote an even closer rapprochement which clearly does not meet the long-term interests of the United States.

A noticeable increase in the degree of tension is not accidental and quite possibly intended to hide something more substantial than Pyongyang's nuclear program. On Thursday, the Treasury report on the budget was published despite the annual dynamics for 17 months. Revenue growth cannot compensate for the decline of the previous period and ensure the fulfillment of government obligations. Perhaps Trump's formidable rhetoric about North Korea is of an intra-American nature. Trump tries to score points before a large-scale battle with the Congress on a number of crucial issues. Hour X is approaching, the government must submit a draft budget for the 2018 financial year. In any case, it is impossible to balance falling incomes with expenditures without raising the ceiling of borrowing. Moreover, the formation of budget is meaningless without the approval of a tax reform, the project of which has not yet been submitted to the Congress. Perhaps Trump's administration will try to combine these two issues into one. The markets expect active government action in the near future.

On Tuesday, data on retail sales and import and export prices will be published in July. Forecasts are moderately positive. If the released data is no worse than expectations, it can stop the decline in the dollar. On Wednesday, the market's attention will be focused on the publication of the protocol of the July FOMC meeting. Players will assess the likelihood of the start of a quantitative tightening program in September.

In any case, there are more questions than answers. The dollar cannot rely on either economic growth or geopolitical stability. While there is advantage over defensive assets, primarily for yen and gold, there is a high probability that this mood will continue for the upcoming week.

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AUD/JPY reversing nicely below our selling area, remain bearish

The price dropped really nicely from our selling area yesterday. We remain bearish looking to sell below strong resistance at 86.57 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a corrective drop towards 85.42 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 91% and also intermediate resistance at 64%.

Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY.

Sell below 86.57. Stop loss is at 85.42. Take profit is at 87.17.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 16, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Flash GDP q/q and Italian Prelim GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1796.
Strong Resistance:1.1789.
Original Resistance: 1.1778.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1767.
Target Inner Area: 1.1739.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1711.
Original Support: 1.1700.
Strong Support: 1.1689.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1682.

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AUD/JPY testing major resistance, remain bearish

The price is testing major resistance at 87.39 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a reaction from this level for a drop to at least 86.32 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 96% where we expect to see a corresponding reaction in price from.

Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY,

EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY. Sell below 87.39. Stop loss is at 88.08. Take profit is at 86.32.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 18, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1771.
Strong Resistance:1.1764.
Original Resistance: 1.1753.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1742.
Target Inner Area: 1.1714.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1686.
Original Support: 1.1675.
Strong Support: 1.1664.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1657.

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The market is waiting for news

The absence of important fundamental statistics from both the US and the euro zone is forcing investors to take on a wait-and-see attitude. This is forming the side channels of the markets, especially in pairs with the euro and the British pound in it.

This week, all attention of traders will be directed towards the two-day symposium of the Fed which will begin on August 24. It is expected that the main figure will be the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. It is believed that Draghi will shed light on the further actions of the bank in relation to its bond purchasing program.

It should be noted that it was at the same conference in 2014 that Mario Draghi justified the need to start the quantitative easing program in the euro area. He also announced the measures to be taken in order to increase inflation.

It is therefore possible that Draghi, speaking at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, will also announce the reduction of the mentioned program above.

If the ECB president does not touch upon this topic during his speech, the attention of investors will switch to the meeting in September. Here, it is expected that the European Central Bank may announce the reduction of the quantitative easing program. As several leading world economists suggest, this can be done in two stages. In September, the ECB will announce the official reduction of the program. In October, concrete steps to carry this out will be announced.

As for the fundamental data, here are the happenings. At the end of last week, it became known that the surplus of the euro zone's current account for the balance of payments for the month of June fell.

This is bad news for the European Central Bank. Thus, the current account surplus of the euro area's balance of payments totaled to 21.2 billion euros following the data of 30.5 billion euros last May. The positive balance of trade in goods rose to 27.4 billion euros while the positive balance of trade in services fell to 2.2 billion euros.

There was a temporary support for the US dollar at the end of last week caused by the data on the indicator of consumer sentiment in the US. The data showed an increase for the first half of August. According to the data provided, the preliminary index of consumer sentiment in August 2017 rose to 97.6 points against 93.4 points in July. Economists predicted that the preliminary index in August will be 94.5 points.

The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the US dollar, continuing its trend that was formed in the middle of the week.

Demand remained after the publication of good inflation data which grew for the month of July this year in Canada.

According to the report, Canada's consumer price index in July 2017 increased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year. Core inflation in July rose to 1.5% against 1.4% in June.

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Brent says goodbye to summer

Futures prices for the North Sea Fort continue to consolidate in the range of $50-54 per barrel amid uncertainty about further dynamics of global oil reserves. On one hand, the information from PetroLogistics about the reduction of OPEC production volume by 419,000 bpd in August and the decrease in the cartel's exports by 750,000 bpd, as well as the continuing peak of US stocks give grounds to assert that the ball in the market. The "bulls" rule, on the other hand, shows that investors greatly think about the question: what will happen when the summer is over?

From the level of the March highs, black gold reserves in the USA decreased by 13%, to 466 million barrels. Nevertheless, US production has risen to a level of 9.5 million b/d, the highest since July 2015. But there is a decrease in rigs by 5 per week indicated by signals on August 18, showing a gradual slowdown in the growth rate of the indicator in the future. These processes are seasonal in nature and are associated with the dynamic activity of car enthusiasts, which increases the demand for gasoline. The question is that when the car season is over, will this become the basis for the growth of stocks? If so, the gains of the bulls on Brent and WTI may be in the past.

The dynamics of US oil reserves and quotations WTI

Source: Bloomberg.
OPEC has the same scenario as mentioned above, although, with regard to the cartel, it is necessary to talk about other time horizons. The agreement to cut production by 1.8 million bpd will end in March 2018, and now it is untimely to talk about its prolongation in November, which is accomplished by Kuwait's oil minister Essam al-Marzouq . Perhaps, he is trying to create a new growth driver for black gold, but it is expected to be done after the due date. Meanwhile, investors' attention is focused on the dynamics of US stocks and production. According to the forecasts of Bloomberg experts, the first indicator will continue to decline by -3.5 million barrels. However, as noted above, the efficiency of the seasonal factor captured the minds of participants in market battles.

Uncertainty and speculation in conditions when some players are on vacation, which allows us to talk about the thin market and lead to sharp movements of prices in different directions. So, the data from the CFTC stating that speculators cut the net-long by WTI for the second week in a row (-5 688, or 2% of the net long position in 274,441 contracts) became the reason for sharp oil sales.

In favor of consolidation development, the stabilization of the US dollar price also speaks. It crosses below the turning point of strong macroeconomic statistics and political risks. So far, further movement seems directionless.

Technically, the breakthrough of the upper border of the inner bar near the $53 mark per barrel will increase the risks of continuing the northern Brent march in the upstream trading channel. On the contrary, the return of prices to the lower border of the domestic bar at $51.3, with the successful consecutive tests on the diagonal support, is expected for a development of correction in the direction of at least $50 per barrel. Brent Daily Chart

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NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a corrective bounce

 

The price has dropped absolutely perfectly and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7202 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up to at least 0.7331 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). 

 

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.3% where we expect a further bounce from. 

 

Buy above 0.7202. Stop loss is at 0.7153. Take profit is at 0.7331.

 

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-- Edited by InstaForex Gertrude on Wednesday 23rd of August 2017 09:20:48 PM

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EUR/JPY remain bearish for a further drop

The price continues to rise and we're now seeing major resistance at 129.40 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, Fibonacci extension) where we expect a strong reaction from to fuel the drop to at least 127.56 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is once against testing our 93% resistance level where we expect a drop from.

Sell below 129.40. Stop loss is at 129.86. Take profit is at 127.56.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 29, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 109.34.
Resistance. 2: 109.13.
Resistance. 1: 108.91.
Support. 1: 108.66.
Support. 2: 108.44.
Support. 3: 108.23.

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AUD/USD bounced perfectly above our buying area and reached our profit target. Prepare to sell

The price bounced perfectly from our buying area and reached our profit target. We prepare to sell below 0.7979 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.7909 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.7979. Stop loss is at 0.8003. Take profit is at 0.7909.

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The Euro continued its correction

The euro did not take advantage of the chance to rise against the US dollar after the release of good data on inflation in Germany and the index of sentiment in the euro area economy.

According to the report of the statistics agency, the consumer price index harmonized in accordance with the EU standards in Germany increased by 1.8% in August this year compared to the same period in 2016, while economists expected growth of only 1.7%. Compared to July, inflation increased by 0.1%, fully coinciding with the forecast. As a rule, low prices for energy carriers continue to create the main problem.

Despite the fact that all values are still preliminary, traders were disappointed by the rather weak indicators and core inflation.

However, there are also positive moments. According to the report, the growth of salaries in Germany sharply accelerated in the second quarter of this year. So, in comparison with the second quarter of 2016, salaries increased by 3.8%. From this, we can conclude that a sharp drop in the unemployment rate did not seriously affect the wage index, which is a good indicator for the economy.

Data on sentiment in the euro area economy also supported the euro in the morning. According to the report of the statistical agency, the index of sentiment in the economy of the eurozone in August this year rose to 111.9 points against 111.3 points in July. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged.

The US labor market and the economy are in perfect order, which was reflected in the quotes of the EUR/USD pair, which declined after the report on changes in the number of employees from ADP.

The number of jobs in the private sector in the US in August this year increased by 237,000, while economists expected growth of only 185,000 jobs. Data for July were revised upward, to 201,000.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 04, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence, and Spanish Unemployment Change. Today the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1939.
Strong Resistance:1.1932.
Original Resistance: 1.1921.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1910.
Target Inner Area: 1.1882.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1854.
Original Support: 1.1843.
Strong Support: 1.1832.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1825.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 05, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.09.
Resistance. 2: 109.88.
Resistance. 1: 109.66.
Support. 1: 109.40.
Support. 2: 109.19.
Support. 3: 108.97.

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NZD/USD testing major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is testing major resistance at 0.7261 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7208 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 92% and we expect a corresponding reaction off this level.

Sell below 0.7261. Stop loss is at 0.7301. Take profit is at 0.7208.

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Brent made friends with hurricanes

Hurricane Harvey did not bring happiness, but this disaster helped the "bulls" in the North Sea and saved them by catching the straw, instead of forcing them to flee the battlefield. The experts of Bloomberg predicted that the US black gold reserves will grow by 2.5 million barrels by the end of the week by 1 September, while the Goldman Sachs announced that it will reach 40 million barrels within a month as the hurricane ends. The oil became a more serious driver of growth which returned refinery to life.

ExxonMobil, Phillips 66, Valero Energy and others reported about the resumption of refining operations. As of September 5, factories with a capacity of 3.8 million b/s (about 20% of the total value for the States) were closed, while at the height of the hurricane it was about 4.2 million b/s capacity. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the continuation process can take several days or weeks. Everything will depend on the damage found at the time of the resumption.

Along with the return to life of the oil refinery, oil has another important hidden driver of growth as the domestic energy increased its demand among the states affected by Harvey. The White House asked the Congress for about $ 7.9 billion in aid to Texas and Louisiana for restoration work, which is regarded as a "bullish" factor for black gold.

However, Goldman Sachs claims that the potential growth of oil is limited, as the current situation is likely to take advantage of mining companies from the States. The possible price hike will increase the hedging of price risks and production volumes, which will affect the global balance of the physical asset market and the futures market. The bank draws attention to the fact that companies have significantly reduced costs in recent years, and the level of revenue showed a growth in profits. This position corresponds to the opinion of the Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy of Russia, saying that in 2018 Brent will cost $45-55 per barrel.

Corrections to the current alignment of forces can make another hurricane. Irma is moving in the direction of Florida, but it is impossible that its impact will be more serious for the US oil industry than Harvey's influence.

Brent and WTI gained support from the weak dollar. The dovish statement of Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari reduced the potential increase of the federal funds rate in December to 37%. The growth of geopolitical risks related to North Korea put pressure on the yields of US Treasury bonds by pushing futures for the North Sea grade to the maximum levels since May.

Dynamics of oil and the dollar index

Source: Trading Economics.

Technically, the "bulls" renewed July highs of Brent along with the activation of the AB = CD pattern increase the risks of continuing the northern campaign towards the target at 127.2% and 161.8%. This corresponds to $54.7 and $56 per barrel. On the contrary, the inability of buyers to keep prices above the levels of $53.7 and $52.9 will indicate weakness.

Brent Daily Chart

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Draghi moved the answers to late autumn

The European currency strengthened its position against the US dollar after the press conference of the president of the European Central Bank, which took place immediately after the regulator left its interest rates unchanged.

However, it should be noted that the growth of the euro was more restrained than many analysts had predicted. Basically this was due to the fact that specific deadlines or measures regarding the repurchase program of the bonds were not announced.

During the speech ECB President Draghi, he said that rates will be at current levels for a long period, and in the framework of quantitative easing, the ECB will buy assets of 60 billion euros a month until December 2017 or longer, if necessary.

As for the specific time frames, the ECB President said that this fall, it will be decided when to adjust the parameters of the policy next year. This leaves room for further strengthening of the euro in the medium term, therefore it would be wrong to talk of any major downward correction in the EURUSD pair. The market reaction associated with buying the euro in the current situation speaks for itself.

Mario Draghi also drew attention to the fact that the economic recovery seems strong and large-scale, and the available information confirms that the prospects for economic growth remain the same.

Draghi very mildly expressed concern regarding the exchange rate of the European currency, saying that the recent volatility of exchange rates is a source of uncertainty that requires observation. Some analysts predicted today that there will be verbal intervention by the president of the European Central Bank, aimed at weakening the rate of the single European currency.

The ECB President also drew attention to the fact that when deciding on monetary policy, the central bank will have to take into account the exchange rate.

As for inflation, according to Draghi, the core index has grown slightly, but a very significant monetary stimulus is still needed.

Data on the labor market slightly supported the US dollar, as the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits increased last week. The rise is associated with Hurricane Harvey. According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from August 27 to September 2 increased by 62,000 and amounted to 298,000. Economists predicted the number of applications to be at 241,000.

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Date:

The dollar turned into a Whipping Boy

These factors try to justify the current weakening of the dollar. However, the hurricanes did not affect anything important either in the financial world or in oil and gas production. Even the nuclear missiles, that cannot fly as far as the US, have little effect.

Over the past week, the dollar has weakened considerably. Both the euro and the pound have been strengthening day by day. In many ways this was contrary to common sense, or at least it seemed so at first glance. It is often said that the blame for all the hurricanes that hit the south of the United States is the nuclear tests of the DPRK.

The television footage of the destruction caused by the hurricane in Texas, of course, is impressive. Especially when you realize that we are talking about the second-largest economy and the second-largest population in the state. The first thought that this footage led to is panic, which inevitably affected the dollar. Moreover, if you remember, Texas is famous for its oil workers. It's as if the hurricane caused huge damage to France. However, Texas is a huge state, bigger than most countries in the world. The hurricane affected only a small part of it, and oil production in the United States has long ago moved north of Texas itself. Shale oil and gas in the state is not affected too much. Also, do not forget that in terms of the financial world, Texas is simply insignificant. Another thing, it is in New York or Chicago where large investors and financial tycoons live. Well, it was the case back in Boston. In short, it's not worth writing off everything for a hurricane.

North Korea have caused a lot of people to worry about ballistic missile launches. Here, the weakening of the dollar is explained by the fear of investors of the nuclear strikes of Kim Jong-un. However, everything here is very strange. After all, North Korea has never launched a missile capable of flying to the US territory. Experts only suggest that they have them. But here's what the DPRK definitely has: missiles that are capable of hitting the territory of Japan. About South Korea, they said nothing. So, if all these investors are so afraid of a nuclear attack from the DPRK, it is more logical to transfer money to where they will be the least probability of being hit. Namely, in the US and Europe. Despite this, the dollar weakened against all currencies.

There was also the speech by Mario Draghi which was held immediately after the ECB meeting on monetary policy. He said that if necessary, the program of quantitative easing will be extended beyond December of this year. He also added that interest rates will remain low for a long time. After such words, any currency would inevitably collapse. However, a lot rests on the fact that Mario Draghi did not express concern about the euro. It is understandable that he did not speak about it, since the euro is not a priority for the ECB. The European Central Bank has more important tasks.

So it is necessary to state a simple and banal thing: investors are fleeing from the dollar.

The reason is that investors do not care whether things are going badly or well. It is important for them that the situation is understandable and predictable. Here, in Europe, everything is clear. For a long time, the ECB and the Bank of England will pursue an ultra-soft monetary policy. This, of course, is not very good, but at least it's predictable. In the United States, it is not at all smooth. In the first half of the year, it was promised that by the end of the year, the Fed will refinance the rate of 1.5%. This strengthened the dollar. Now, there are a lot of questions to the Fed, including the rate, which, perhaps, will be left at the level of 1.25%. And since the rate will not be raised any more, then there is nothing anymore to lie about without money.

This scenario will please the eyes of market participants this week. Now, a new hurricane will hit Florida, which is the third largest population and the fourth largest economy by the state. However, the value of Florida is much smaller than that of Texas, so it is quite difficult to use it as an excuse to justify the weakening of the dollar. Especially, since in Florida, unlike Texas, there is no serious industry. The state's position on the size of the economy is only because of the size of the population. However, there is no doubt hurricanes will be used as an excuse.

Another argument in favor of the weakening the dollar is the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. First, there will be data on inflation, which should show acceleration from 2.6% to 2.8%. If these forecasts are justified, then the number of supporters of the increase in the refinancing rate in the Bank of England will increase. Since the hopes for a rapid increase in the rate in the United States have not been justified, it is worth seeing the UK try. So, the dollar still has to fall in price. Moreover, in the US, a significant slowdown in the growth rate of retail sales is expected from 4.2% to 3.1%.

Considering that practically no significant news is coming out in Europe, the EUR/USD pair, if it grows up, is insignificant. Hysteria about the hurricane in Florida will not allow the dollar to strengthen, so there is a high probability of consolidation around 1.2000.

If the number of votes for raising the refinancing rate in the Bank of England is three or more, then the GBP/USD pair will rise to 1.3350. If inflation increases, the members of the Bank of England board will be cautious, and a pound drop to 1.2950 is possible.

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What are the prospects for the British pound?

The British pound rose sharply against the US dollar and other world currencies after the release of good inflation data, which again "awakened" the talks about raising interest rates by the Bank of England.

Although such prospects, of course, are quite lengthy, judging by the latest data, with inflation in the UK, after a disastrous July month, everything is in order in August.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain, both monthly and annual inflation grew. Remarkably, the two indicators were much better than the economists' forecasts. So, the consumer price index of Great Britain in August this year increased by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, while economists expected growth of only 2.7%. The growth was due to a sharp jump in prices for clothing and footwear.

Compared to July 2017, the consumer price index rose by 0.6%, while economists forecast an increase of 0.5%.

The country's factory gate prices in August rose by 3.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, while purchasing prices jumped by 7.6%. The increase in purchasing prices was directly related to the rising prices of crude oil.

Such good performance is unlikely to affect the decision of the Bank of England this Thursday, when it is expected that the regulator will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as the economic growth remains moderate.

The most positive forecasts of economists indicate an increase in the cost of borrowing at the beginning of next year, although the optimal period is mid-2018.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, majority will depend on how the new buyers show themselves at the level of 1.3260, because an unsuccessful consolidation above this level can trigger a gradual selling of the pound in the medium term. The high that buyers can expect in this scenario is the update of 1.3330 and 1.3370. If, after the decision of the Bank of England, the trade moves below the level of 1.3260, then it is likely that the pound will be sold quickly to the larger support levels 1.3190 and 1.3090.

According to The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, the US retail sales index for the week of September 3-9 fell by 3.0% compared to last week, which is generally related to seasonality before the start of the academic year. Compared to the same period in 2016, the sales index in the US retail chains grew by 2.3%.

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The Bank of England can raise rates

After the release of strong data on consumer inflation in the UK, as well as the increase in selling and purchasing prices of producers, the question of whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates at the September meeting has surfaced again.

Released on Tuesday, really strong data on consumer inflation unexpectedly showed a significant increase in August, both in monthly terms and in annual terms. This increases the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the Bank of England at its September meeting. Today there will be more figures on the average level of wages in the UK, as well as on employment. It is expected that wages rose by 2.3% in July against the 2.1% increase in June. Also, growth in applications for unemployment benefits is expected. It can be assumed that if the data prove to be better than forecasts or, at least, not worse than expected, it will support the British currency on the wave of increasing expectations of higher interest rates next week.

In addition to data from the UK, the market will focus today on the publication of figures for industrial inflation in the US. It is estimated that the producer price index will increase sharply both in annual and monthly terms. The annual figures will have to jump to 2.5% from 1.9%, and the monthly increase in August by 0.3% after a 0.1% drop in July.

If these data prove to be worse than forecasts or show higher values, then, the US dollar may receive domestic support against the euro and, possibly, also against the yen.

In general, the currency market can be expected to continue the consolidation period before the meeting of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. At the first meeting, a decision may be made to raise interest rates or reduce the volume of asset purchases, while at the second meeting it will be decided to start reducing the balance of the Fed. The first event will support the British currency, and the second will show investors the path of the future monetary policy.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair may be under pressure on the wave of strong data on production inflation in the US and is able to drop to 1.1925, but its decline will probably be domestic, as the market will expect the release of figures on consumer inflation in the US and the results of the Fed meeting.

The EURGBP pair fell to the level of 0.9000, the overcoming of which can still cause the continuation of its decline to 0.8885. But it is likely that before the meeting of the Bank of England the pair will consolidate, and only the decision of the regulator to raise rates or reduce the volume of asset purchases will lead to its further decline.

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Fed will not help the dollar

Encouraged by hopes of stimulating the US economy under the influence of Donald Trump's stimulating programs, the "bears" of the EUR/USD pair went into a counter-attack. The consequences of hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" were not as terrible as initially expected. Besides, history shows that "Katrina" was stronger against the two, at a time when the Fed raised the federal funds rate in 2005. Natural disasters are temporary and in the end the result of the restoration work can benefit the GDP. Simultaneously, the idea of tax reform, which in late 2016 pushed up the USD index, has returned to the market.

Judging by the comments of the Republicans, the bill on changes in the taxation system will become public for a week by September 25. Up to this point, one can only guess at the basic provisions of the reform and how far it will spread in the American economy. The president only hinted that the rich should not expect special preferences, which contrasts with previous statements about the reduction of corporate tax and real estate tax. However, the fact that Trump changes his mind like a glove, throughout it should be expected.

The rise in US GDP growth rate entails a more rapid tightening of the monetary policy by the Fed, compared with what the markets are currently waiting for. While the regulator is concerned about inflation, it must be understood that conditions are constantly changing. If in the 1970s, its average level was 7.1%, in the 1980s - 5.6%, in 1990 - 3%, in the 2000s - 2.6%, but now it is below the 2% mark. The liability is globalization and new technologies that increase competition and force producers to cut prices. In correlation with this, raising the federal funds rate to 3-3.5% or higher, as it was before, is not necessary. The cycle of monetary restriction of the Fed can be completed much earlier, and the realization of this fact will attract new sellers of the US dollar to the market.

Dynamics of inflation and federal funds rates

Source: Trading Economics.

The outlook for the euro, on the contrary, appears optimistic. In fact, due to the lag in the economic cycle in the eurozone compared to the United States, the ECB is at the same pace as the Fed in 2014. The European Central Bank is ready to normalize monetary policy, and the current EUR/USD pair correction only increases the likelihood of it. In October, Mario Draghi will report on the curtailment of the quantitative easing program. This will be a new occasion to buy the euro.

It should be noted that during its last cycle of tightening monetary policy in 2005-2008, the regional currency strengthened against the US dollar by 30%, and if history repeats itself, the current +13% is just the beginning. In this regard, it makes sense for traders to stick to the previous strategy in the main currency pair - buying on payoffs.

Technically, the inability of bulls to move prices above the target by 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern indicates their weakness. The formation of the double vertex increases the correction risks in the direction of at least the lower boundary of the upstream trading channel.

EUR/USD, daily chart

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US Dollar: bulls ready for revenge

The US dollar was sold at the close of the week on Friday after an unexpectedly weak report on retail sales and industrial production for the month of August. The data cast doubt on the prospects for the recovery of the US economy.

Retail sales decreased by 0.2% compared to July. Moreover, the July growth of 0.6% was revised downwards to 0.3%. Meanwhile, the report for June was a;so revised from + 0.3% to -0.1%. Thus, the dynamics of retail sales over the past three months was significantly worse than the market expected, casting doubt on the ability of the US consumer sector to maintain demand at the same level.

For the first time since January, the volume of industrial production has decreased. The decline in August was 0.9%, which is the maximum monthly decline since May 2009, causing the manufacturing industry fell by 0.3%. The reason for such a weak data, according to experts, is the consequences of hurricane "Harvey", which broke out on the southern coast of the United States and contributed to a decline in the oil refining and chemical industries.

The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was now under attack. The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts an increase of 2.2% in the third quarter, which is noticeably worse than the 4% growth expectations of just 6 weeks ago. Meanwhile, weak economic growth casts doubt on the Fed's plans to normalize monetary policy.

The failed report on retail sales was unexpected given the acceleration in consumer price growth. In August, inflation rose by 0.4% against a growth of 0.1% for the month of July. Year-on-year growth reached 1.9%. The results were better than forecasts and, it would seem, gave a strong argument for the bulls on the dollar. Good dynamics on consumer activity would add credibility to the leaders of the Fed. This is because after the start of the program to reduce the balance sheet following the meeting on September 20, the market considered the matter resolved,and the dollar should have receive the long-awaited impetus for a turn.

However, the dollar's fate is again in question. Of course, the dynamics of retail sales is unpleasant news for the Fed but it will not affect its position. The plan to reduce the balance sheet was announced in advance and the impact of the hurricane will have be temporary. However, the increase in inflation is a much stronger argument, and it will give an opportunity in the updated forecast of September 20 to indicate higher figures than the market expects.

The weakening of the dollar by the end of the week was also caused by the unexpectedly aggressive position of the Bank of England, which announced the imminent start of the rate hike cycle, and fixing profits before the weekend. At the same time, there is a noticeable recovery in the markets, which is reflected in the growth in demand for risky assets with stock indices growing. The dollar is experiencing a clear deficit of good news, and the beginning of the week before the Fed meeting will be held in anticipation of the positive outcome of the meeting.

At the moment, the dollar is ready to resume growth. All the catalysts for its decline in the current year are already played by the market. There are no new catalysts and there are very few reasons for further weakening. The problem with the level of public debt and government funding is removed from the agenda. The fate of the tax reform is in the hands of the democrats with whom Trump, according to recent data, has managed to find a solution that suits everyone. Any announcement of support for reforms by the Congress will serve as a powerful driver for the growth of the dollar, as it will potentially contain the factor of a rapid inflow of investments into the US economy.

The dollar has good chances, primarily against the yen and the franc. The Central Bank of Japan and the NBS continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy, which, against the backdrop of growing interest in risk, will be an additional argument in favor of sales. Against the euro, the dollar does not yet have strong positions, as the ECB is also preparing to wind down the buyback program. However, the euro's rise before the Fed meeting is virtually ruled out. Trade in the Australian and Canadian dollars will be cautious, with greater chances to go into the lateral range, at least until the support from rising commodity prices ceases.

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Pound defeated a strong opponent

The British pound was marked by the best weekly dynamics against the basket of major world currencies over the past nine years, strengthening against the US dollar by 3% after the Bank of England signaled it was ready to tighten monetary policy. It is interesting to note that the US dollar did not look like a whipping boy either. The reduction of geopolitical risks around North Korea and the growth of the probability of the Fed's monetary restriction against the acceleration of inflation to 1.9% allowed the "dollar" to finish the five-day session in positive territory against the majority of competitors from the G10. The bigger the gains of sterling!

It's one thing when the market pushes the date of the rate hike and then brings it closer, as in the case of the Fed. It is quite another when the chances of tightening monetary policy grow dramatically, as in the case of the Bank of England. Guided by the need to implement its own inflation projections, the regulator made it clear that it was going to raise the repo rate in the near future. And if someone did not believe him, then the speech of Gertjan Vlieghe forced them to do it.

The most serious "dove" of the Committee on Monetary Policy said that the increase in wages, the growth of the world economy, and the household expenditures make it possible to expect the first increase in rates in the next few months. The derivatives market believes that this will happen in November.

The probability of raising the repo rate

Source: Bloomberg.
When an ardent opponent of monetary restriction speaks the language of the "hawk", it becomes the best driver for currency growth. The pound proved it, having strengthened during the day by 1.5% against the US dollar.

The minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England and Gertjan Vlieghe proved that the "doves" remained in the minority. Meanwhile, the pound's sensitivity to upcoming releases of macroeconomic statistics should increase. It seems that the BoE is now less worried than before about the problem of reducing real wages. However, if retail sales show a decline in purchasing power, then the problem will remind it of itself. The release of the indicator is scheduled for September 20.

For the US dollar, the key event of the week will be the FOMC meeting. The open market committee can lower inflation forecasts and change the expected trajectory of the federal funds rate, which will affect the long-term outlook for the USD index. The Fed continues to be concerned about the dynamics of personal consumer spending, and the acceleration of the August CPI may eventually turn out to be the usual market noise. It is hardly to be expected that the signal from Janet Yellen and her colleagues about the act of monetary restriction in December will be the reason for buying the "dollar". The futures market thus pawns 59% of the probability that this will happen.

Technically, the bulls managed to achieve a target of 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern very quickly, after which the correction risks increased in the direction of 1.34-1.345. To continue the northern trend to 1.377 (targeting 200% on AB = CD), customers need to update the September maximum.

GBP / USD, daily chart

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Does Brent feel the ceiling?

Oil continues in its northern trend, inspired by the increase in the forecast of global demand by 1.7% from the International Energy Agency, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's exports to the lowest levels over the past three years, and the decline in production of Iraq's second-largest OPEC producer by 260 bpd. Baghdad said that it exceeded its plans brought by the cartel, which is a "bullish" factor for black gold. Moreover, another role in its successes is played by the suspended state of the American dollar.

As a rule, autumn is not the best period for Brent and WTI. The completion of the automotive season in the US leads to a reduction in inventories. In addition, the Energy Information Administration reports that there is an increase of production to 6.08 million bpd in October, encouraged by rising prices of producers of shale oil. Nevertheless, hurricanes allowed for adjustments to the seasonal factor. For a long time, black gold finally felt relief under pressure from the growth of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes. The decline of the indicator for two consecutive weeks reached 749 (-7 on the results of the five-day period by September 15).

As the US refineries restart, the demand for oil should gradually increase and support prices because of optimistic forecasts for the global index from the IEA and OPEC. At the same time, $50 per barrel for WTI is a very dangerous figure. It attracts hedgers like honey bears, so it will be extremely difficult to gain a foothold above this mark.

As the value of black gold rises, the question is returned to the market: what are the limits? It is obvious that the end of the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" and the transition of the market to a normal state will return it to the idea of increasing American production with parallel insurance of price risks. This combination of drivers has repeatedly provoked attacks of "bears." I do not think that something will change in the fall. You can talk endlessly about the fulfillment of the obligations to reduce production by OPEC members. You can also discuss about the extension of the agreement beyond March 2017. However, the fact remains: Americans continue and will continue to use the favorable conjuncture for them.

Dynamics of the US dollar is of no small importance. Since Brent and WTI are quoted in this currency, the growth of the USD index leads to a rise in the cost of imports in the largest consumer countries, and vice versa.

Dynamics of the USD Index and Brent

Source: Trading Economics.

In this regard, the expectations of the start of the process of normalizing the balance of the Fed and a rise in the probability of an increase in the rate for federal funds from 33% to 58% is of special joy to "bulls" that black gold is not able to bring. On the other hand, the positions of the euro against the backdrop of the ECB's desire to roll back QE look strong. After all, it has the largest share in the USD index. Thus, consolidation in EUR / USD does not put obstacles on the way of black gold to the upward trend.

Technically, a resistance break at 55.95 will allow Brent bulls to continue the rally in the direction of the following targets (by 200% and 224%) in the AB = CD pattern. On the contrary, the inability of buyers to take an important level by storm will testify to their weakness and will increase the risks of correction to $ 54.7 and $ 53.1 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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EUR/JPY dropping nicely, remain bearish

The price continues to test our major resistance at 134.15 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a drop form this level to at least 132.01 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). Do take note of the bullish ascending channel we're seeing as we might see the price bounces off this level and only a break of the channel would see a stronger drop towards our profit target.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 96% and we expect a drop from this level. It also displays good downside potential for our drop.

Sell below 134.15. Stop loss is at 134.92. Take profit is at 132.01.

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Elections in the Bundestag hold back the euro

Over the past week, despite the fact that the market is pretty polychromic, the euro and the pound remained virtually unchanged. The main event of the week was the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Markets. The meeting saw the Fed leaving the refinancing rate unchanged. It was quite expected so the market almost ignored this event. The strongest influence was caused by the words of Janet Yellen, which was said during the subsequent press conference. The head of the Federal Reserve did not disappoint investors. She stated that the issue of raising the refinancing rate would be considered during the December meeting. Of course, when making a decision, the Fed will rely on the state of the labor market, as well as inflation. So the chances for another rate increase this year are quite high. After all, the labor market is in fairly good condition and inflation has resumed growth. However, the effect was short-term with the dollar literally losing all its gains within a day. Although, Mario Draghi was partly to blame. The head of the ECB said that there is no reason to continue the program of quantitative easing after December this year.

In fact, there were no other significant events for the week. The final data on inflation in Europe coincided with a preliminary estimate, and inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.5%. Apparently, this was the reason for the statements of Mario Draghi. However, such a result was expected so the market did not pay attention to it. Also, the growth rate of retail sales in the UK accelerated from 1.4% to 2.4%. Despite the clearly positive nature of the data, they also did not have a significant impact on the market.

It's all about the German elections which took place on Sunday. The market was waiting for the results. Of course, no one doubted the victory of Angela Merkel and her CDU / CSU. However, the two most influential parties in Germany, the same CDU / CSU and SPD, received the worst result since 1949. Especially since the SPD announced the transition to the opposition. Because of this, Angela Merkel will now have to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP. All three parties have significant differences on a variety of issues, so the coalition is clearly shaky. The German press has already dubbed it "Jamaica". Moreover, the coalition itself does not seem to be the most reliable so the negotiations on its formation will be extremely tough. Obviously, the CDU / CSU will have to make a number of concessions. In such an uncertain situation, investors will not make hasty decisions. Therefore, the potential for strengthening the euro is rather small.

The macroeconomic calendar for the current week does not spoil us with significant news. The preliminary data on the inflation in Europe is worth paying attention to because it may show further acceleration to 1.6%. Given that these data will come out at the very end of the week when the outlines of the new ruling coalition in Germany may be known, the euro will have many reasons for optimism. However, before that, the euro will remain under pressure as the final data on US GDP in the second quarter would show the acceleration of economic growth from 2.0% to 2.2%. Similar data from the UK would confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 2.0% to 1.7%.

You can also expect a certain reaction to a number of other data. In particular, home sales in the primary market in the US may increase by 3.3% while orders for durable goods may add 1.0%. However, this is about positive news for the dollar. The data on personal incomes and expenses, which should grow by 0.3% and 0.1%, may become negative. Taking into account that the income growth is not ahead of the expense growth, this will be perceived as a signal for a rapid decline in consumer activity. This data will be released on Friday, immediately after the preliminary data on inflation in Europe. The pound has nothing to rejoice for, as a significant reduction in the number of approved applications for mortgages is projected.

In general, the dollar has every chance of strengthening. And only on Friday will it have to give up its position a little. During the week, the EUR/USD pair may fall to 1.1795.

The GBP/USD pair is also waiting for a decline to 1.3395.

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Date:

AUD/JPY right on buying level, remain bullish

The price is now testing major support at 88.52 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, bullish divergence) and we expect to see a bounce above this level to push price up to 89.66 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is starting to bounce nicely from our 5% support and ha good upside potential

Buy above 88.52. Stop loss is at 87.89. Take profit is at 89.66.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 28, 2017

USDX is testing upper Bollinger bands across the board and looks forward to testing the next resistance around 94.04. However, we're still expecting a corrective move towards the 200 SMA at H1 chart in a first degree. If the index manages to break above 94.04, we can expect another higher leg to test the 95.00 psychological level.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04
H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 29, 2017

Wave summary:
We continue to look for more upside pressure towards 1.6875, but we need a break above minor resistance at 1.6410 to get the next "GO" higher. As long as the minor resistance at 1.6410 is able to cap the upside, we should look for a minor dip to 1.6311 before turning up again.

R3: 1.6451
R2: 1.6410
R1: 1.6340
Pivot: 1.6300
S1: 1.6278
S2: 1.6222
S3: 1.6200

Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR again at 1.6300 or upon a break above 1.6365.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 29, 2017

Wave summary:
We continue to look for more upside pressure towards 1.6875, but we need a break above minor resistance at 1.6410 to get the next "GO" higher. As long as the minor resistance at 1.6410 is able to cap the upside, we should look for a minor dip to 1.6311 before turning up again.

R3: 1.6451
R2: 1.6410
R1: 1.6340
Pivot: 1.6300
S1: 1.6278
S2: 1.6222
S3: 1.6200

Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR again at 1.6300 or upon a break above 1.6365.

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EUR/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is approaching major resistance at 1.1841 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction off this level to push the price down to at least 1.1728 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance from the 100% level and we're starting to see a nice reversal take place.

Sell below 1.1841. Stop loss is at 1.1890. Take profit is at 1.1728.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 03, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Total Vehicle Sale, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1789.
Strong Resistance:1.1782.
Original Resistance: 1.1771.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1760.
Target Inner Area: 1.1732.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1704.
Original Support: 1.1693.
Strong Support: 1.1682.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1675.

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Date:

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 04, 2017

In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 113.16.
Resistance. 2: 112.94.
Resistance. 1: 112.72.
Support. 1: 112.44.
Support. 2: 112.22.
Support. 3: 112.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 05, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, and Retail PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1812.
Strong Resistance:1.1805.
Original Resistance: 1.1794.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1783.
Target Inner Area: 1.1755.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1727.
Original Support: 1.1716.
Strong Support: 1.1705.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1698.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 06, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Consumer Credit m/m, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1769.
Strong Resistance:1.1762.
Original Resistance: 1.1751.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1740.
Target Inner Area: 1.1712.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1684.
Original Support: 1.1673.
Strong Support: 1.1662.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1655.

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Date:

EUR/USD testing strong resistance, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area previously and is fast approaching our profit target. We turn bearish today looking to sell below 1.11744 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 1.1653 support (Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we expect a corresponding reaction from this level.

Sell below 1.1744. Stop loss is at 1.1793. Take profit is at 1.1653.

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Date:

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 10, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment and Current Account data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and NFIB Small Business Index. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with ... volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 113.27.
Resistance. 2: 113.06.
Resistance. 1: 112.83.
Support. 1: 112.55.
Support. 2: 112.33.
Support. 3: 112.12.

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Date:

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 11, 2017

Overview:
The NZD/USD didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.7000 or higher. Immediate support is seen around 0.7087. The NZD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7128 towards 0.7087. Now, the price is set at 0.7069 to act as a minor support. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.7128 and 0.7040 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.7169 and 0.7220, which coincides with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the NZD/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.7128. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.7128/0.7087 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.0020, sell below 0.7128 or 0.7087 with the first targets at 0.7040 and 0.7000 (support 3). However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 0.7169.

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Date:

The political crisis in Spain does not put pressure on the euro

Despite the continuing tension between Spain and Catalonia, the European currency continues to strengthen its positions against the US dollar. The expected publication of the report of the Federal Reserve System since the last meeting also does not put pressure on euro buyers.

Today, the Prime Minister of Spain has demanded that the leader of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont gave a clearer assessment of his position and answer the question whether he declared the independence of the region or not.

If the Catalan leader takes this step, the Prime Minister of Spain will be fully entitled to deprive the rights of Catalonia some autonomy, which will lead to greater confrontation. This will be done with an based on article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which allows the government to deprive the regions of certain rights of autonomy in the event of a threat to the interests of Spain.

Statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve did not affect the prices of the US dollar. Today, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, draw the focus towards the fundamental indicators of the US economy. In his view, the current situation is good enough to start a discussion about the need to raise interest rates later this year. Evans also noted the improvement in the situation with wages, and expects that the unemployment rate in the US may drop even lower.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, going beyond resistance 1.1830 had a positive impact on new buyers of risky assets, which led to the further increase of the trading instrument already in the 1.1860 area with the main purpose of reaching 1.1870.

The growth potential of the euro may be limited by the Fed's minutes, which will be published tonight.

Prices of oil fell after the release of the OPEC report, which noted an increase in production levels.

According to the data, the cartel's production in September this year increased to 32.75 million barrels per day. OPEC expects oil demand to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day by 2017 fiscal year, as well as 1.4 million barrels a day in 2018.

The cartel also increased the estimate of the world supply of oil in September to 96.5 million barrels per day. Total oil reserves in OECD countries in August 2017 were 171 million barrels, above the five-year average level.

As for the technical picture of oil, only a breakthrough of the level of 51.30 on the WTI mark can lead to a larger upward movement with a test of the monthly highs around 52.80. If buyers can not get hold of the level of 51 US dollars, a downward correction may lead to the updating of the lower limit of 49.40.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 13, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1886.
Strong Resistance:1.1879.
Original Resistance: 1.1868.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1857.
Target Inner Area: 1.1829.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1801.
Original Support: 1.1790.
Strong Support: 1.1779.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1772.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 13, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1886.
Strong Resistance:1.1879.
Original Resistance: 1.1868.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1857.
Target Inner Area: 1.1829.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1801.
Original Support: 1.1790.
Strong Support: 1.1779.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1772.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 16, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Trade Balance and German WPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Federal Budget Balance and Empire State Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1870.
Strong Resistance:1.1863.
Original Resistance: 1.1852.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1841.
Target Inner Area: 1.1813.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1785.
Original Support: 1.1774.
Strong Support: 1.1763.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1756.

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Date:

The export of the eurozone is in order

The euro managed to return a number of positions in relation to the US dollar after the release of good data on the growth of exports of goods from the eurozone in August this year. The absence of other important macroeconomic statistics forced large investors to refrain from further buying the US dollar after Friday's fluctuations.

According to the Eurostat report, eurozone exports in August increased by 2.5% compared to July, while imports increased by only 0.4%. The positive balance of foreign trade in goods in the eurozone in August 2017 amounted to 21.6 billion euros, against the 17.9 billion euros in July.

After such data, it can be concluded that the sharp increase in the European currency in the first half did not significantly affect the export sector, which will positively affect the overall indicator of the eurozone economy in 2017.

Good data on the growth of production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York did not provide significant support to the US dollar in the afternoon. According to the report of the Fed-New York, the production index in October 2017 increased by 5.8 points, to 30.2 points. Forty-four percent of respondents said about improvement of conditions, while 14% of respondents said that conditions worsened. Economists had expected the index to be 20 points.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, only a break and consolidation above the level of 1.1830 could lead to the return of the trading instrument to the area of monthly highs, which will allow us to count on continuing the upward trend in risky assets in order to update the levels of 1.1900 and 1.1950. For the time being, the trade is in the level of 1.1800. The pressure on the European currency will continue to be maintained, which will allow the sellers of risky assets to expect the continued decline of EURUSD already in the region of monthly lows in the range of 1.1690 and for their renewal in the 1.1630 and 1.1600 areas.

Today it also became known that the budget surplus of Greece has grown. According to the Ministry of Finance of the country, over the past 9 months of this year, the budget surplus of Greece amounted to 4.54 billion euros. However, it was not possible to reach the target level due to a reduction in tax revenues. According to the Ministry of Finance, budget revenues from January to September amounted to 36 billion euros, which is below the target level of 2.4 billion euros.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 18, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 30-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1826.
Strong Resistance:1.1819.
Original Resistance: 1.1808.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1797.
Target Inner Area: 1.1769.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1741.
Original Support: 1.1730.
Strong Support: 1.1719.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1712.

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Date:

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 20, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1904.
Strong Resistance:1.1897.
Original Resistance: 1.1886.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1875.
Target Inner Area: 1.1847.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1818.
Original Support: 1.1808.
Strong Support: 1.1797.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1790.

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Date:

AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy

The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We now prepare to buy above major support at 88.39 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 89.10 resistance (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, recent swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing support above 1.2% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 88.39. Stop loss is at 88.17. Take profit is at 89.10.

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