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Canadian Free Trade Slow Down its Economy

The Canadian economy had an unfavorable situation in the previous year. The trade data was published yesterday that shows a continuous decline in growth and tried hard to gain profits outside the energy sector despite the positive exchange rate and the demand in exports of US non-energy products reduced in terms of volumes. Also, any recorded growth over the past decades was mainly driven by higher prices.

The inactivity of the past years is considered an enigma for policymakers which may question Canada’s ability to maintain its growth rate followed by the fastest 3 percent expansion in 2017 over six years. Bank of Montreal Economist Benjamin Reitzes mentioned that the country’s current trade environment remains fragile due to the sluggishness of non-commodity exports. Canadians desire is to become “perennial optimists” of international trading amid uncertainties arises regarding advantages of open economies.

According to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, trade is the main factor for economic growth, making his Liberal Party lawmakers advocates to preserve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is currently in the seventh round of talks.

The trade performance of the country was dull except for oil and its non-energy trade deficit increased by $8.64 billion (US$6.9 billion) in December and $87 billion for the entire year. Generally, the number of export volumes including oil failed to sustain along with the imports which would mean trade industry was largely driven by the excellent economic performance last year thanks to domestic demand. With this, the Bank of Canada may delay the interest rate hike while evaluating the overall economic condition.

The not so strong non-energy trade indicates that Canada is highly dependent on oil in order to keep its trade balance from falling, even though Trudeau strives to turn around from commodities.  Moreover, energy exports came in at 17 percent in 2017 and move higher by 14 percent in the beginning of the year.

More Pressure Besets Chinese Local Government with New Bond Rules

Local governments of Beijing were pressured to settle their financial problems while a new rule on are issued on lending companies.

Chinese firms have to confirm publicly that funds gained in selling bonds should not add to local government debt and they are not siding on any government financing sector based on the given notice from the country’s top planning agency.

Moreover, corporations should not demand or accept any assurance from local governments on debt financing, as stated by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Regulators are looking for means to have a better control in the midst of a wider systemic risk on the high local government debt and their transparent financing.

Authorities are trying to separate financial actions as part of their restriction, which is often related to stand-alone companies in a technical perspective. In particular, credit rating agencies should not associate the financial reports and project data in credit ratings work with the local government credit ratings, according to the NDRC.

The Chinese government is trying to instill on investors that actions will be taken if they did wrongfully.

It means that the government is not responsible on increase in debts by these firms but they are still expected to intercept to provide support for these companies, referred as local government financing vehicles (LGFV) in settling compensation concerns.

The local debt of China’s government increased by 7.5 percent to 16.47 trillion yuan or $2.56 trillion at the end of 2017, based on the calculations by Reuters, which is still within the target figure of the government.

Outstanding corporate debt amounted to 165 percent of GDP, which has been the highest among major economies and is mostly owned by the state.

South Korea’s BOK Prepares for Possible Scenario In Sudden Fed Rate Hikes

The Bank of Korea is ready to face any unfavorable outcome following the policy tightening in the U.S. at a faster rate, according to the chief of South Korea’s central bank, Lee Ju-yeol.

If the Fed acted earlier than expected, it will have an effect on the global financial market, as well as local market. Hence, they prepared beforehand in possible scenarios, as told by Lee Ju-yeol to reporters in Zurich.

He also said that the central anticipated the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase their rate thrice in 2018.

Another factor that will be faced by Korea is the protectionist moves of the U.S. against South Korea, he added.

Fed’s Tighter Policy Risk in Higher Rates

More demand for safe-haven assets and low productivity growth induce the Federal Reserve to keep their rates low, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve President, James Bullard, on Monday.

If the Federal Reserve will proceed with the rate hikes, a tighter policy would be ideal for the current economy. The goal of the federal funds would be around 1.25 and 1.5 percent and current rates still fall between this range as recommended with following a neutral rate that is kept at bay by various factors moving at a slower pace.

If rates have substantially increased without changes in the data, monetary policies would then become restrictive. There is a worry that the FOMC might go on “too fast”, added by Bullard. There must be support from the data to continue with the rate hike.   

The Federal Open Market Committee is anticipated to increase its interest rates in March meeting at least twice a year, in reference to the latest December forecast of policymakers.

Bullard is known to be the most cautious among Fed officials when talking about rate hikes while the U.S. is deemed to have a low growth following a low-inflation policy and the rate should not be too high unlike there are clear indications that the economy has changed.

The term “neutral” was discussed during the National Association of Business Economists conference following the remarks of Bullard denoting that the monetary policy is a way to determine the positivity and negativity of economic activity.

Vague as it may be, the neutral rate is sufficient for the Fed in gauging the policy rates. Authorities see the present policy rates have to continue its accommodative monetary policies while inflation is still under composure.   

The Release of Government's EU Exit Analysis

The EU free trade agreements still expected to cost the UK by 4.8 percent of its projected economic growth for the next 15 years, based on the confidential government ‘EU exit analysis’ released yesterday. The decline in growth amounted to £55 billion of the British government debt by 2033, which could further negate the expected ‘Brexit dividend’ by the supporters of the EU exit. The report was issued by the department of Exiting the EU committee. Moreover, Brexit Secretary David Davis stated that the published document should be kept confidential but some parts of the material were already leaked to the media last month.

The alternative option led by Theresa May’s team is the “Membership of the single market” but was ruled out due to the possible drop in GDP by 1.6 percent. On one hand, the ‘no deal’ Brexit would return the UK trading with the EU-27 under the standards of the World Trade Organisation and would cost 7.7 percent of the GDP based on the government numbers. This could result in a surge of government borrowing by £20 billion and £80 billion, respectively. With this, there are assumptions that approximately 40,000 to 90,000 EU migrants are planning to leave the United Kingdom.

Included in the analysis is the projected economic benefits from the reducing regulations. The government of Britain would likely create its original version of impact assessment, however, some of the think tanks are expected to see potential gains around zero and 2 percent only of the GDP. Nevertheless, the report does not mainly evaluate the short-term economic effect of Brexit.

It further shows that the free trade deal with the United States would benefit the UK GDP by 0.2 percent in the longer term. While another concession with countries under the trans-Pacific and south-east Asia regional group such as Australia, China, India and New Zealand is expected to add 0.1 to 0.4 percent of GDP. Ministers of Britain are hoping to start the talks prior to the Brexit scheduled in March 2019, but this plan seems to be already abandoned.

British Chambers of Commerce Upgrade UK Economic Outlook

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) lifted its forecast for the UK economic growth, however, showed warning that UK will be the worst performing economy among other G7 countries in 2020. The GDP outlook of the BCC is 1.1 to 1.4 percent for this year and 1.3 to 1.5 percent in 2019.While, the initial growth forecast is 1.6 percent for 2020, as the revision was steered by the slightly stronger than anticipated consumer expenditure. Moreover, exports from Britain is predicted to remain stable amid robust global growth. On the other hand, imports could possibly resume its expansion and the net trade contribution to the country’s GDP in the short term appears to be limited, as the pound support Britain’s overall net trade position. In spite of the increases, the UK GDP is expected to remain below the historical average during the forecasting period.

The non-profit organization stated that productivity is projected to have slight improvement compared over its estimated outcome but continued to be weak restrained by the underlying issues within the country, such as skills shortages and failure in infrastructure investment. The BCC expects that inflation will pick up and start to ease in the near term since the impact of the post-Brexit toned down upon the weakening the Sterling. Furthermore, there are assumptions that the next hike in UK official interest rates will reach 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2018, which could be followed by another rise in Q1 next year. The business body foresees that public sector borrowing in Britain will come in over £13.4bn for the next three years compared with the projection issued at the Spring Statement by the Office for Budget Responsibility last week.

US Factory Growth Hit Lower in March

The factory activity in the United States had slowed down for the month of March alongside the downturn in new orders. While growth in manufacturing industry continued to be supported by strong global and domestic economies. Further data showed on Monday the marginal increase in construction expenditure for February. The figures coincided with the economists’ forecast that the economic growth will slacken in January to March. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 appears to be weak due to seasonal quirk.

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the national factory activity index declined to 59.3 in the previous month versus 60.8 in February. If the reading in the ISM index is above 50, it indicates expansion in manufacturing which accounts more or less than 12 percent of the American economy. While the survey's production sub-index drop to 1.0 point from the reading of 61.0 last month. The estimate of new orders fell to 61.9 in March against 64.2 in February. The gauge of factory labor reduced by 2.4 points to 57.3 in the previous month.

There are 17 sectors that reported growth in March, which involves computer and electronic products, fabricated metal products and machinery and chemical products. On the other hand, the Apparel, leather and allied items showed a downswing. Machinery manufacturers told that imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports led to panic buying, pushing short-term costs higher, and further caused scarcity for non-contractual clients. The tariffs set by US President Donald Trump is intended to protect domestic industries from the so-called unfair competition against other countries.

The report slightly influenced US financial markets. As shown in a separate report, construction spending gained 0.1 percent in February following a steady stance in January. The Reuters poll indicates that economist projected that construction spending grew by 0.5 percent in February and expected to increase by 3.0 percent on an annual basis. February’s marginal increase in construction spending presents a growth estimate for the GDP in Q1, which is predicted to be lower than the 2 percent annualized rate.

The costs on private construction projects were up by 0.7 percent on the back of its 0.7 percent decline in January. While nonresidential structures expenditures had rebounded by 1.5 percent in February after it plummeted to 1.7 percent in the past month.

Optimistic UK Economy as Article 50 Triggered by PM May. Read full article at:
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US Economy Strengthen, says Barkin

The American economy showed unexpected strength but the robust labor market did not trigger major wage pressures, according to the newest Fed Reserve’s regional President on Monday during his first major speech about monetary policy.

Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin stated that the US economic health was really strong, showing a higher trend growth with low jobless rate and inflation at target. The statement was made at  George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia and Barkin served as a voting member for the rate-setting committee of the Fed this year.

The Federal Reserve has a unanimous decision whether to approve interest rate hike in March, as there are speculations for another two increases in the current year while more policymakers assumed three hikes.

NZ Retail Sales Recorded Slowest Growth in Q1

The retail sales volume in New Zealand had expanded during Jan-Mar period but also recorded its slowest rate after five years, this further indicates the possible slackening of economic growth in the following years. On an annual basis, the official data showed that retail sales volume grew by 3 percent on Monday,  which also imply a sharp decline versus the 5.4 percent rise in the previous quarter and the weakest growth from July-September 2012.

Sales gained 0.1 percent only based on a quarterly growth, which is lower than the rough estimate of 1 percent increase projected by the economists. Footwear and clothing had decreased by 5.1 percent while motor vehicles are down to 1.1 percent. The figures led to speed-bumps in the economy, whereas, many developed countries in the past years envied but it begins to deal with some headwinds due to weak immigration and expansion in the housing market.

The administration was able to secure strong economic growth because of immigration levels and stable price of dairy products at 3 percent per year despite the slight decline to 2.9 percent in 2017.

New Zealand's new Labour-led government took control in October and pledged to settle the housing crisis in the country along with some plans to improve property investment tax and officially ban foreigners to purchase residential properties in NZ. On Thursday, the expanded government investment declared in the annual budget would likely negate the sluggish consumption expenditure, with the 3.8 percent GDP growth outlook from the Treasury forecast in 2019. In addition to it, the GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled on June 21.

EU Bloc Negotiates with Australia and New Zealand

The European bloc confirmed yesterday the start of free trade negotiations with Australia and New Zealand in order to establish new relations against the increasing trade tensions with the United States. The European Commission represents the 28 EU countries and negotiates about its plans and agreement towards the AU and NZ despite the warnings on opening the EU markets to generate farm products like beef and butter.

According to forecasts from EU, its exports towards Australia and New Zealand may expand by a third in case that trade agreements were finalized. Considering the fact that its trade partnership with the US was suspended by the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, the EU shifted its focus to build allies with open markets and struck agreements with countries on the same mind.

The bloc also deals with the result of steel and aluminum tariffs set by the US and the sanctions they would impose against Iran, which could lead to restriction of certain foreign businesses. The EU closed the deal with Japan, Mexico and Singapore and currently working with the Mercosur bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

EU’s Malmström Against Trump’s Tariffs

The European Union is trying to convince the countries Canada, Japan, and Mexico to work together against the aggressive trade policies imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström today.

Malmström further stated that EU is reaching out various countries to form alliances and arrange a trade union who believe in international laws. Last week, the EU announced levying retaliatory tariffs up to €2.8 billion-worth of U.S. exports, which includes peanut butter and motorboats. While Canada, India, Japan, and Mexico will do the same thing. The European Commissioner described Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum as “not legitimate” The Swedish Commissioner also cautioned regarding the potential risk towards the global economy.

Both the United States and Europe set up the international policy and organizations to govern trade, but the US broke the rules that is why the EU has to take necessary action, Malmström said.

SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies

The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.

They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.

At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.

Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.

Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.

Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.

Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.

Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.

The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision.  However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.

Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.

July 24. US stock exchanges decline on geopolitical risks and fears for the country's economy

According to the trading data, the main US stock indexes are declining on Friday, as investors assess the risks of the conflict between the US and China and doubt the prospects for the recovery of the US economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 0.57%, to 26501.72 points, the broad market S&P 500 index – by 0.62%, to 3215.7 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 1.47%, up to 10307.8 points.

The pessimism in the markets was fueled by growing tensions between the world's two largest economies. Today, China has demanded that the US Consulate General in Chengdu, Sichuan Province cease operations. This demand was made in response to the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, USA.

Additional pressure on the market is exerted by fears for the recovery of the US economy. Investors speculate that an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in America and a new round of quarantine restrictions may again suspend economic activity in the country.

July 30. German GDP and quarterly losses hit the European market

On Thursday, the European stock market crashed after the publication of the German GDP report and disappointing macroeconomic data.

Germany's DAX traded 2.4% lower, to 12.516, France's CAC 40 fell 1.15%, to 4.901, and Britain's FTSE declined 1.65%, to 6.031.

Germany's GDP report reflected a 10.1% decline in the German economy, the sharpest drop in history.

Indicators of quarterly losses of European companies also had a detrimental effect on the dynamics of the European market. French carmaker Renault SA fell 2.8%, posting a record net loss of 7.29 billion euros in the first half of this year. Its German rival Volkswagen AG plunged 5.3%, posting an operating loss of 800 million euros in the first half.

Shares of the Italian oil company ENI SpA fell 3.5% after the company reported a loss in the second quarter and cut dividends. France's Total recorded an asset impairment of $8.1 billion in the second quarter, but retained dividends.

Only pharmaceutical companies showed growth. In particular, AstraZeneca gained 3.1% after reporting a second quarter net profit growth and testing of a coronavirus vaccine.

August 03. The PMI index of the industry of the eurozone in July rose to 51.8 points

According to the research organization Markit Economics, the index of business activity (PMI) in industrial production of 19 eurozone countries in July rose to 51.8 points against 47.4 points in June. Analysts predicted that the indicator would rise to the level of preliminary estimates of 51.1 points.

At the same time, industry PMI in Germany, according to final data, rose to 51 points from 45.2 points in June. PMI in France in July increased to 52.4 points from 52.3 points in June.

Analysts had expected the German index to rise to 50 points and the French to 52.

August 06. US unemployment claims data are encouraging

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who filed initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 1.186 million last week after rising in the previous two weeks. Economists had forecast a smaller decline to $ 1.415 million.

The number of secondary applications from those who continue to receive benefits dropped to 16.107 million, down from the previous week by 1.951 million.

On Friday, investors await a more complete report on nonfarm payrolls. The report is predicted to show that an additional 1.6 million jobs were created in the labor market last month, or hiring fell sharply from a record 4.8 million in June.

August 10. US stock market opened with growth in hopes of new liquidity injections

The US stock market started the week in a positive mood amid hopes for a compromise on a new package of measures to support the population and the economy.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a deal with House Democrats this week is still possible, despite the failure of talks last week when the parties failed to agree on a $2 trillion bailout.

So, Donald Trump the day before decided to extend the payment of unemployment benefits in the amount of $400 per week and to suspend the income tax bypassing Congress.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 190 points, or 0.7%, to 27.624 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to hit 3.350, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 10.923. Shares of such companies as McDonald's Corporation, Eastman Kodak Co, Simon Property Group Inc also showed growth.

August 13. US still can't agree on stimulus package

Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in Congress on the next round of economic aid measures remain stalled.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday that the lower house is ready to negotiate with the Senate and the administration and reduce the difference between the proposed package of measures. The White House administration is offering $1 trillion, and the Chamber is offering $3.5 trillion.

However, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called such a proposal «misleading» and said that Democratic negotiators were not yet ready for a compromise at all.

-- Edited by Charot FXMart on Thursday 13th of August 2020 09:05:25 AM

August 19. Gold prices dropped below $ 2,000 due to dollar stabilization

The price of gold dropped today below the level of $2,000 per ounce (to $1,987.93) amid the stabilization of the US dollar in the market. The American currency is awaiting details on the strategy of the US Federal Reserve to support the economy affected by the pandemic.

However, experts note that expectations of further weakening of the dollar may lead to the fact that in the near future gold will be able to gain a foothold above the $2,000 level and reach new record highs.

Tonight will be released the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which may contain hints of a shift in the forecast for monetary policy. However, no changes in interest rates are expected until the end of 2021.

Palladium lost 0.33% to $2.181.43 an ounce, while silver slipped 0.73% to $27.45 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.15% to $945.25.

September 01. German authorities have improved economic forecast for 2020

The German authorities have improved their forecast for the outlook for the economy in 2020 amid signs of effectiveness in efforts to support and stimulate Europe's largest economy.

The German central bank expects the country's GDP to contract by 5.8% this year, while back in April it was predicted that the economy would contract by 6.3%. At the same time, the new forecast still does not rule out the onset of one of the most significant economic recessions since the end of World War II.

Meanwhile, the forecast for next year was downgraded. Experts expect that the German economy in 2021 will grow by only 4.4%, while the previous forecast assumed growth of 5.2%. Also, the Ministry of Economy of the country notes that Germany, most likely, will not be able to achieve pre-crisis GDP indicators until early 2022.

September 07. Johnson calls Brexit deadline

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that a Brexit trade deal with the European Union should be concluded by October 15. The politician noted that if the parties fail to reach an agreement by this time, then the free trade deal will most likely not be concluded at all.

According to Johnson, if the negotiations are unsuccessful, the UK will have a relationship with the EU similar to that of the EU and Australia, which is also a good result. In this case, Britain will have full control over its laws and regulations, as well as the conditions for the use of British fishing waters.

The Prime Minister also stressed that Britain is ready to find a reasonable agreement with the EU on practical issues, including flights, freight transport or scientific cooperation, even if a trade deal is not reached.

The post-Brexit transition period began for the UK on January 31, 2020 and will last until December 31, 2020. During this year, the EU and Britain should reconcile their future relationship. The next stage of negotiations is scheduled for tomorrow, September 8th.

September 09. In July, the number of vacancies in the United States increased to 6.62 million

Job vacancies in the US increased in July, with more workers leaving retail and professional and business services jobs due to concerns about COVID-19 infection and childcare concerns, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor (JOLTS).

The number of vacancies, which is an indicator of labor demand, jumped from 6 million to 6.62 million on the last day of July, the highest since May.

The JOLTS report follows last Friday's news that the US economy created 1.371 million jobs in August, after increasing 1.734 million in July.