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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN RETAIL SALES SINK 0.4% IN JUNE

The value of retail sales in Japan was down 0.4 percent on month in June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday - coming in at 13.225 trillion yen.

That missed expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent following the upwardly revised 1.4 percent gain in May (originally 1.3 percent).

On a yearly basis, retail sales climbed 5.9 percent, matching forecasts and up from 5.8 percent in the previous month.

Commercial sales were down 0.3 percent on month and up 0.2 percent on year at 49.001 trillion yen, while wholesale sales slipped 0.6 percent on month and 1.8 percent on year at 35.776 trillion yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR AHEAD OF RBA RATE DECISION

At 11:30 pm ET in the early Asian session, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on interest rates. The RBA is expected to hike its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, from 4.10 percent to 4.35 percent.

Ahead of the RBA rate decision, the Australian dollar showed mixed trading against its major rivals. While the aussie fell against the euro, the U.S. dollar and the yen, it held steady against the NZ dollar.

As of 11:25 pm ET, the Australian dollar was trading at 1.6410 against the euro, 0.6695 against the U.S. dollar, 95.53 against the yen and 1.0810 against the NZ dollar.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

BANK OF ENGLAND SET TO HIKE INTEREST RATE

The Bank of England is set to lift its key interest rate on Thursday after its major counterparts U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank lifted benchmark rates last week.

The August decision is likely to be a close call between a 25 basis-point and a 50 basis-point hike. The announcement is due at 7.00 am ET. The bank will also release its quarterly monetary policy report along with the policy decision.

The Monetary Policy Committee is set to decide on a split vote with seven members seeking a rate increase, while two others calling for no change.

As the inflation has slowed to a 15-month low of 7.9 percent in June amid stretched housing affordability, the BoE is more likely to opt for a 25 basis point hike today.

The BoE has lifted its benchmark rate over the last thirteen consecutive policy sessions, taking it to the current 5.00 percent, which was the highest since 2008.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve had raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the highest since early 2001. The next day the ECB also resorted to a similar rate hike.

The International Monetary Fund recently projected growth in the UK to ease sharply from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 0.4 percent in 2023. However, the 0.4 percent growth reflects an upward revision as the lender sees a stronger-than-expected consumption and investment amid falling energy prices.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Major US indicators show decline

US stock indices continued to drop in yesterday's trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.4%, NASDAQ lost 0.36%, and S&P 500 decreased by 0.49%.

American indicators began to fall on Wednesday after the sudden credit rating downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+ by Fitch. This was due to the potential deterioration of the country's budget situation over the next three years and the growing national debt, which requires a debt ceiling to be set.

However, this is not the only reason for the Wall Street index slump. Yesterday, macroeconomic data was released, which also contributed to the decline. One factor behind this negative trend was the increase in unemployment benefit claims by 6,000 in a week, reaching 227,000.

The business activity index in the service sector for the past month declined to 52.7% compared to the June figure of 53.9%, surpassing experts' predictions of a drop to 53%.

According to economists, as long as there are no signs of improvement in the labor market, there is a risk of further interest rate hikes. Unemployment remains one of the potential inflationary threats to the US Federal Reserve.

The next meeting of the central regulator will take place in September. All the statistical data received during this time will be considered by the Fed when making decisions on further monetary policy.

The corporate reporting season is in full swing. Among the largest American companies, Apple and Amazon are leading. Traders are eagerly awaiting the results of these companies.

Apple is the absolute leader in market capitalization, while Amazon dominates in online trading volume. Apple is expected to report on the continuation of declining revenue, which was observed in the past two quarters. In addition, investors are interested in information on the potential use of AI in the company's operations.

The stock value of Anheuser-Busch InBev rose by 1.7%, beating expert forecasts. DoorDash's shares also increased by 1.7% due to an improved forecast for annual core earnings and quarterly revenue report, driven by increased demand for their products.

In contrast, Qualcomm dropped by 10% due to a disappointing revenue forecast for the third quarter.

The US is experiencing a record decrease in oil inventories, which, combined with the country's credit rating downgrade, led to significant losses during the previous session. According to official data, oil inventories decreased by 17 million barrels in the last week of July, marking the largest decline in forty years.

However, since yesterday, the situation has started to stabilize, and oil prices are also normalizing. WTI crude oil futures increased by 1% to $80.31, and Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.9% to $83.92.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

US premarket on August 7: US stock market under pressure again

Futures on US stock indexes opened with a slight increase after another Friday sell-off, driven by a decreased appetite for risk following weak US labor market data. Treasury bond yields rose both on Friday and Monday during morning trading. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, while the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 8 basis points. NASDAQ futures rose by 0.3%. European stock indexes declined as Germany's industrial production fell to a six-month low in June, highlighting economic weakness.

Meanwhile, investors continue to analyze the perplexing signals from the Friday employment report in the US. According to the data, wages exceeded economists' forecasts, despite a slowdown in wage growth. Unemployment rate declined even further, but the number of new jobs was lower than economists' predictions.

Considering the July rally, which happens almost every year, August promises to be calm, and it is not surprising that investors are taking profits, leading to market weakness. Market sentiments for this week will depend on new data. It will start with Germany's consumer price index and continue with the US consumer price index on Thursday and UK GDP data on Friday. The US core consumer price index is predicted to rise by 0.2% in July, the slowest growth in 2.5 years.

German bonds fell after the Bundesbank's statement on Friday about halting interest payments on domestic government deposits. This unexpected move caught traders off guard, leading to a sell-off in 30-year debt, resulting in the highest yield since January 2014.

Meanwhile, representatives of the US Federal Reserve say that further rate hikes may be necessary. Over the weekend, Michelle Bowman stated, "We don't think central banks will get the rise in unemployment rate and sustained moderation in wage growth in the coming year that they hope to see."

In Asia, the yen fell for the first time in four days after the minutes showed that one of the Bank of Japan's members voted for the central bank to provide greater flexibility in managing the yield curve at the July meeting.

Regarding the S&P 500 index, demand for the trading instrument remains relatively low. Bulls may continue the uptrend, but they need to settle above $4,515. From this level, a surge to $4,539 may occur. An equally important task for bulls would be to control $4,557, which would strengthen the bullish market. In the event of a downward move due to decreased risk appetite, bulls will have to protect $4,488. A breakthrough would quickly push the trading instrument back to $4,469 and $4,447.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Wall Street on the Rise: Awaiting Key Inflation Report

What's behind this rise? After a bit of anxious waiting, investors are getting back to business, preparing for the release of a key inflation report in the U.S. this week. This event has sparked significant interest, especially after last week ended with a decline in major indices and investors were eager to lock in their gains.

2023 is proving to be a real boom for U.S. stocks. The primary driver? Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence technology and faith in the steady growth of the global economy. The S&P 500 has soared an impressive 17.7% this year.

And while summer typically brings a certain lull in the market due to vacation season, August remains a month to watch. All eyes are now on Thursday: the U.S. consumer price report will provide much insight into the future course of the Federal Reserve. Recent employment news has made many cautious, suggesting that the Fed might keep rates high for much longer.

An interesting twist: John Williams of the New York Fed hinted at a potential rate cut in 2024, while Governor Michelle Bowman believes there needs to be another hike to achieve the desired 2% inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose by 407.51 points (1.16%), reaching 35,473.13 points. This marks the largest single-day increase since June 15th of the current year. The S&P 500 (.SPX) showed a similar growth, increasing by 40.41 points (0.90%) to 4,518.44. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) also advanced, climbing by 85.16 points (0.61%) to close the day at 13,994.40.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to break a negative streak of four sessions. This has been the longest downward period for the year so far. It's worth noting that Tesla shares dropped 0.9% following the appointment of Vaibhav Taneja as the company's Chief Financial Officer, replacing Zach Kirkhorn.

Nasdaq had previously seen a decline for four consecutive days in May, and prior to that, the longest negative stretch was six sessions in October. The S&P 500 also recorded losses in four sessions in 2023, with similar streaks occurring in May and February. In December, the index lost ground in five consecutive sessions.

Overall, the main S&P indexes showed growth, particularly in communication services (.SPLRCL) by 1.9% and financial services (.SPSY) by 1.4%.

According to Refinitiv, second-quarter profits exceeded analysts' expectations for 79.1% of the 422 S&P 500 companies that have already reported. Berkshire Hathaway shares surged by 3.4%, reaching a record high after the company reported a quarterly profit of over $10 billion.

However, Tyson Foods shares dropped 3.8% due to third-quarter revenue failing to meet expectations. Vaccine manufacturers BioNTech SE and Moderna Inc also saw their shares decrease by 7.5% and 6.5% respectively.

BioNTech SE slashed its drug development budget due to a decrease in quarterly revenue, stemming from reduced demand brought on by the pandemic. Additionally, the investment bank Leerink revised downward its target price for Moderna Inc's shares.

Sage Therapeutics' (SAGE.O) stocks saw a sharp decline of 53.6%, marking the largest drop since December 2019. This happened after the U.S. drug regulator rejected their application for a postpartum depression treatment. Meanwhile, shares of their partner, Biogen (BIIB.O), rose by 0.9%.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges amounted to 9.92 billion shares, which is below the 20-day average of 10.86 billion. Within the S&P 500 index, 19 new 52-week highs and eight lows were registered. As for the Nasdaq Composite, the number of new highs reached 71, with lows at 169.

The CBOE Volatility Index, based on option trading for the S&P 500, decreased by 7.78%, settling at 15.77.

On the commodities market, the December delivery gold futures fell by 0.26% to $1.00 per troy ounce. WTI and Brent oil futures also showed a slight decline, reaching $82.52 and $85.86 per barrel respectively.

On the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair showed a minor change, settling at 1.10 (a 0.09% change), while the USD/JPY increased by 0.53% to 142.50. The U.S. dollar futures rose by 0.07%, settling at 101.90.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Wall Street on the Edge: When Banking Ratings Shake the Foundation

Significant changes occurred with 10 medium-sized banking institutions, whose ratings went down by one notch. In addition, six of the largest banks, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street, and Truist Financial, were under close scrutiny by Moody's for further review.

While the banking sector felt the pressure, the pharmaceutical industry lit up with good news. Thanks to successes in developing an obesity drug, Novo's shares went up. Eli Lilly also brings its share of optimism to the market, reaching record highs due to impressive profit reports.

However, not everything was smooth sailing. UPS faced challenges, cutting its annual revenue forecast due to falling demand. Overall, the indices showed the following picture: Dow decreased by 0.45%, S&P went down by 0.42%, and Nasdaq lost 0.79%. This day reminded investors that even Wall Street's sturdy foundation can be subject to external influences. All that remains is to hope that the current turbulence will soon subside.

Following the shock wave of bankruptcy of three creditors at the beginning of the year, which significantly shook the US financial world and even impacted giants like Silicon Valley Bank, the market's trust in banks showed signs of recovery. However, recent events suggest that this trust is far from being stable. The numbers confirm this: the S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) has fallen by 2.5% since the beginning of the year, while the main S&P 500 index has risen by an impressive 17.2%. The recent ratings downgrade underscores how fragile investor confidence remains in financial stocks. Specifically, on Tuesday, the banking index went down by 1.1%, and the KBW regional banks index (.KRX) lost 1.4%.

Many major banks felt the pressure. Shares of giants such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America each dropped about 1.9%, Bank of New York Mellon lost 1.3%, and Truist shares went down by 0.6%. Jason Pride of Glenmede notes that Moody's actions aren't just a formality. It's a clear expression of the agency's concern about the current state of the banking system and its potential impact on the overall economic situation. As a result of this news, the CBOE market volatility index (.VIX), which serves as Wall Street's "fear barometer," showed an increase, at one point reaching its two-month peak. All of this reminds us that trust is a fragile thing, especially when it comes to finances.

On Monday, Wall Street indices suffered a decline, with Dow Jones losing 158.64 points (0.45%), dropping to 35,314.49, the S&P 500 went down 19.06 points (0.42%) to 4,499.38, and Nasdaq lost 110.07 points (0.79%), reaching 13,884.32. Out of the 11 key sectors of the S&P 500, eight suffered. Although financial stocks, as expected, took the hardest hit, materials and consumer goods sectors also felt significant pressure. However, not everything was bleak. The energy sector, initially depressed by poor trade data from China, ultimately went up by 0.5%, thanks to rising oil prices amid more optimistic economic forecasts from the US.

In the pharmaceutical world, it was a good day: shares of Novo Nordisk, a Danish manufacturer, surged 14.9% after announcing that their drug Wegovy might aid in combating heart diseases. Among other winners of the day was Dish Network, whose shares rose by 9.6% following the announcement of merger plans with EchoStar, whose shares also went up by 1%. But, as always on Wall Street, where there are winners, there are losers. United Parcel Service shares dropped 0.9% after the company downgraded its forecasts. By the end of the day, US trading volume reached 10.94 billion shares, aligning with the average over the last 20 trading days. It's also interesting to note that the S&P 500 recorded 13 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows, while Nasdaq registered 46 new highs and a whopping 195 new lows. In the commodity market on Monday, gold futures for December delivery faced pressure, declining by 0.54% or $10.60, hitting the mark of $1.00 per troy ounce. Such a sharp drop may raise questions since gold rarely costs so little, and this data likely requires verification or correction.

Meanwhile, oil futures showed positive momentum. WTI crude oil futures for September delivery increased by 1.04% or $0.85, reaching a level of $82.79 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for October delivery also moved up, adding 0.81% or $0.69, settling at $86.03 per barrel. On the currency front, no significant changes were observed. The EUR/USD pair showed a minimal change, decreasing by 0.43% to the 1.10 level. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY quotes exhibited growth, increasing by 0.62% to a mark of 143.38. It's also worth noting that the U.S. dollar index (USD) futures displayed an upward trend, rising by 0.49% and reaching the mark of 102.36. These movements reflect the overall picture of the global markets at the moment, where investors assess various economic and geopolitical factors in determining their investment strategy.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Global markets await CPI data: stocks are declining, and the dollar is under pressure due to the situation in China

Meanwhile, the dollar faced pressure from news out of China. Reports indicated that China's economy is experiencing deflation, causing some concerns among market participants. The European stock market received some support thanks to tax assurances from Italian banks. At the same time, oil prices rose to their highest level since January due to a supply shortage. Against the backdrop of these news, some major companies showed growth on Wall Street. Dow Inc's shares added 0.96%, closing at 55.54. Honeywell International stocks increased by 0.85%, reaching 189.24, while Caterpillar Inc rose by 0.58%, ending at 284.53. The stock market today was an arena of intense movements, where some corporations shone, while others faced pressure.

On Wall Street, Salesforce Inc experienced a noticeable drop of 2.70%, settling at 205.86. However, not everything looked grim. Intel Corporation, for instance, rose by 2.11% and closed the day at 34.28. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc lost 1.60% of its value.

Among the components of the S&P 500 index, shares of Axon Enterprise Inc stood out, showcasing an impressive rise of 14.06%. They were complemented by stocks of Akamai Technologies Inc and Fleetcor Technologies Inc, which increased by 8.47% and 6.29% respectively. However, major players such as NVIDIA Corporation and Paramount Global Class B dropped by 4.72% and 4.46%.

At the end of trading on NASDAQ Composite, shares of Tango Therapeutics Inc almost doubled their value, with an increase of 103.92%. Renovaro Biosciences Inc and Decibel Therapeutics Inc also showed significant growth, adding 82.35% and 80.29%. On the other side of the spectrum, Palisade Bio Inc shares fell by 62.50%, and both Bruush Oral Care Inc Unit and Yellow Corp lost nearly half of their value.

All in all, today's stock market was eventful, showing how quickly the fortunes of companies can change on the global economic stage.

On the New York Stock Exchange, there was a dominance of declining stocks: 1593 against 1324, which closed in the green. Another 83 stocks retained their positions. The situation on NASDAQ was similar: 2225 stocks decreased in value, 1284 gained, and 112 remained unchanged.

Akamai Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:AKAM) showcased splendid performance, hitting a 52-week high with a rise of 8.47%, and closed the day at 102.99. In contrast, Palisade Bio Inc (NASDAQ:PALI) shares plummeted, losing 62.50% and setting a new all-time low. The volatility index, CBOE Volatility Index, based on S&P 500 options, modestly declined by 0.19%, reaching 15.96. In the commodities market: gold futures slid 0.57%, pricing at $1,000 per troy ounce. At the same time, WTI and Brent crude increased their value, closing at $84.26 and $87.44 per barrel respectively.

On the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair remained almost unchanged, ending the day at 1.10, while USD/JPY gained 0.22%, reaching 143.68. The US dollar index slightly slipped, losing 0.01%, and settled at 102.33. Experts anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July will show a modest annual increase of 3.3%, keeping the core rate at a steady 4.8%. On Tuesday, the financial market underwent a massive selloff, stimulated by Moody's credit agency's decision to downgrade ratings of ten small and medium US banks. This decision intensified investor concerns already troubled by high stock valuations and potential interest rate hikes, especially following the unexpected decision by Fitch agency to downgrade US government debt.

Nvidia, a technology company, found itself at the epicenter of the negative dynamics on Wall Street. However, several other giants from the "Magnificent Seven" also played a role in pressuring the market, leading to a decline in major indices. The global MSCI stock index decreased by 0.30%. U.S. stock indices also showed negative dynamics: the Dow Jones index lost 0.54%, the S&P 500 went down by 0.70%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.17%. Meanwhile, the European market displayed more optimistic results. The STOXX 600 index increased by 0.43%, partially due to Italy's announcement that the new tax on banking profits would be within 0.1% of a bank's assets, which was lower than many investors had anticipated. Nevertheless, a heated debate continues among global investors regarding the potential taxation of extraordinary banking revenues. Jim Reid, a strategist from Deutsche Bank, expressed the opinion that the question of how to distribute the burden of high rates among various market participants is likely to become political. European banking stocks rose by 1.01%, with the Italian FTSE MIB index showing a growth of 1.31%. The situation in China raises many questions on the global economic stage. The ongoing decline in consumer and producer prices confirms the fears of many experts about a potential slowdown in China's economic growth post-pandemic. Both domestic and foreign demand for Chinese goods is weakening, suggesting that the country might be transitioning into a period of stagnation. The inflation data, as well as weak foreign trade indicators, have led to comparisons with Japan's "lost decades," a period when the country's economy stagnated for many years. The currency market also reacted to the news from China. According to dealers, the alleged interventions of China's state banks to support the national currency led to the strengthening of the yuan. The dollar declined against the yuan and major currencies, which was reflected in the dollar index. There were fluctuations in the US government bond market. The Treasury issued 10-year bonds, and the market closely monitored demand, especially after the recent sharp increase in yields. Instability in this sector reflects investor uncertainty regarding future economic growth and monetary policy. The global oil market continues to show positive dynamics. Reduction in US reserves, as well as decreased supplies from major exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, led to price increases. Despite concerns about declining demand from China, the oil market maintains its position. Overall, global financial markets remain influenced by the economic situation in China and the response of key players to these changes.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Bitcoin: simple trading tips for novice traders on August 11. Overview of yesterday crypto market trades

Tips for trading
BTC Yesterday, Bitcoin did not move according to the plan, failing to give any market entry signals. The US inflation data had no impact on BTC, disappointing traders who were betting on a bullish trend, especially after favorable growth earlier this week, approaching $30,000. Today, Bitcoin's direction is unlikely to see significant changes, mostly maintaining a sideways movement. Nonetheless, it is better to stick to scenario 1.

Buy signal
Scenario 1: Today, you may buy Bitcoin when it reaches the entry point near $29,480 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward $29,780 (thicker green line on the chart). It is better to close long positions and open short ones near $29,780. Expecting substantial Bitcoin growth today might be overly optimistic, but a gradual upward movement toward $30,000 may occur. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: Another opportunity to buy Bitcoin today arises if the price tests $29,330 twice. This would limit the downward potential of the trading instrument and trigger an upward market reversal. We can also anticipate a rise towards the opposing levels of $29,480 and $29,780.

Sell signal
Scenario 1: Selling Bitcoin today is possible after $29,330 (red line on the chart) is breached, leading to a rapid decline in the trading instrument. Bears' key target would be $29,037, where you may close short positions and open long ones. Pressure on Bitcoin will intensify if bulls show weak activity near the daily peak range. Important! Prior to selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: Selling Bitcoin today can also be considered if the price tests $29,480 twice. This would limit the upward potential of the trading instrument and result in a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease toward the opposing levels of $29,330 and $29,037.

What's on the chart:
Thin green line: Entry price for purchasing the trading instrument.

Thick green line: Estimated price at which to set a take profit order or lock in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick red line: Estimated price at which to set a take profit order or lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is improbable.

MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important! Novice cryptocurrency market traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp course fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly deplete your deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

BTC update for August 14,.2023 - Fake breakout of the support zone

BTC/USD has been trading upside this morning and I found fake breakout of the support level at $29.200, which is sign that sellers could be in the trap.

Due to the strong rejection of the support at $29.200 and potential for the fake breakout of the consolidation, I see potential for the further rally towards upside references.

Upside objectives are set at the price of $29.670 and $30.110

Stochastic oscillator is showing bullish divergence and potential for the further rally...

Intraday support is set at the price of $29.000

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Nvidia Sets the Pace: New Horizons for S&P 500 and Nasdaq

This leap propelled the information technology index up by 1.85%, making it stand out among other sector indices of the S&P 500.

Apart from Nvidia, stocks of other tech giants, such as Alphabet and Amazon.com, also demonstrated steady growth, increasing by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. Jay Hatfield from Infrastructure Capital Advisors notes: "Tech has rarely surprised us lately, and now it has surpassed all expectations. With Nvidia's upcoming report, the tech market could receive an additional boost."

Next week, Nvidia plans to publish its quarterly results, sparking particular interest among analysts and investors. On Monday, Morgan Stanley highlighted the company's influence on the market, especially considering the current interest in artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, Tesla's shares dropped by 1.2% due to the company's decision to reduce prices for some models in China. This week promises to be eventful for the market, with expectations of quarterly reports from major retailers such as Walmart and Target, as well as the release of July retail sales data, which may impact the US economic landscape.

The Market in Anticipation: Retail sales for July are expected to influence the US Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts. According to CME Group Fedwatch's instrument data, analysts are 89% confident in the Fed's rate stability over the next month. However, Goldman Sachs expects the beginning of rate cuts only by the second quarter of 2024.

Meanwhile, on the global stage, there's growing concern about real estate in China, especially after the country's largest developer, Country Garden, decided to delay payments on its bonds.

Against this backdrop, news from the IT sector: PayPal shares confidently rose by 2.8% after the appointment of Alex Kress, former leader of Intuit, as the CEO.

In the entertainment sector, AMC Entertainment shares took a deep dive, losing 36% due to a court decision to review the agreement with shareholders, while shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries dropped 34% on news of the company's possible involvement in forest fires in Maui. The overall trading volume in the US was below average, with declining shares dominating over rising ones on the S&P 500. Meanwhile, BioXcel Therapeutics shares fell sharply, reaching a three-year low. In conclusion, the CBOE Volatility Index, which reflects the dynamics of S&P 500 options, decreased by 0.13%, indicating a relative market calm.

Gold futures for December delivery fell by 0.36% or $7.05, amounting to around $1,000 per troy ounce. As for oil, WTI futures for September delivery dropped by 0.73% or $0.61, settling at $82.58 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent futures for October lost 0.59% in price, or $0.51, hovering around $86.30 per barrel. In the currency market, the EUR/USD pair showed minimal change, losing 0.36% and standing at 1.09. The USD/JPY pair, on the other hand, grew by 0.36%, reaching around 145.48. The US dollar index, reflecting the dynamics of the American currency against a basket of major currencies, rose by 0.34%, hitting the 103.04 level.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

BTC update for August 16,.2023 - Key support at the $29.000 on the test

BTC/USD has been trading downside this morning and the price is testing the key support cluster at $29.100.

Potential breakout of the support cluster at the price of $29.000 can lead downside movement towards lower references at $28.800 and $28.730

Potential rejection of the support cluster $29.000 can lead price upside towards upside reference at $29.640

Short-term condition is balanced

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUR/USD: dollar reflects resilience of US economy while euro's stability in question

The US dollar is once again in a dominant position, successfully overshadowing the euro. The dollar seems to mirror the strength and confidence of the American economy, which has showcased resilience so many times already. For the euro, the question of stability remains a challenging one. It had to prove its viability several times but not always with success.

The Federal Reserve's actions and the current macroeconomic statistics are crucial for the greenback's future trajectory. This is particularly in reference to the monthly reports released on August 16 by the US Census Bureau. According to recent data, housing starts in July increased by 3.9% month-on-month. Notably, there was an 11.7% decrease in this metric in June. This exceeded market expectations which had anticipated growth of 2.7%. Moreover, the number of building permits also increased in the past month by 0.1% after decreasing by 3.7% in June.

The US dollar did not show a significant reaction to this batch of macroeconomic data. The publication of the Fed minutes had a more pronounced impact on the dollar's movements. On the evening of August 16, prior to the report's publication, the greenback depreciated slightly against the euro. By the next morning, the dollar had appreciated slightly, positioning the EUR/USD pair close to 1.0883 and erasing some of its earlier gains.

The chart indicates that the EUR/USD pair is struggling to break out of the bearish 20-day SMA, which is accelerating its decline. Other technical indicators show a downward movement after failing to cross their median lines. This indicates a continuation of the downward trend, which could intensify if the nearest support level at 1.0870 is broken. However, the situation has currently stabilized, and the pair is holding confidently within its current range.

In the current landscape, the European currency remains susceptible to fluctuations. Notably, after the release of the Eurozone's economic data, the euro appreciated but later its growth stagnated. The combined GDP of the 20 Eurozone countries grew by 0.6% annually and by 0.3% quarterly in the second quarter of 2023. Both metrics were consistent with preliminary assessments. Moreover, in the first month of summer, the Eurozone's industrial production volume decreased by 1.2% year-on-year but rose by 0.5% on a monthly basis. This surpassed analyst expectations, predicting a decline of 4.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Post the Federal Reserve's minutes release, markets have gauged the prospects of the institution's future monetary policy. Earlier, the FOMC members expressed concerns regarding the current inflation levels and did not rule out further monetary policy tightening. However, the regulatory representatives were divided on the potential negative impact a prolonged tightening cycle might have on the US economy. Against this backdrop, the majority of analysts (86.5%) anticipate the Fed's rate to remain at the current range of 5.25%–5.5% in September. By the end of 2023, they foresee a possible increase to 5.5%–5.75%.

This situation has been favorable for the greenback. Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the US dollar considerably strengthened. USD was buoyed by market expectations of the regulator maintaining interest rates at relatively high levels. It is important to highlight that, during its July session, the institution raised its interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%–5.50%, marking the highest level since 2001. The meeting minutes revealed that the FOMC representatives view below-trend economic growth and a cooling US labor market as essential conditions for economic recovery.

According to the minutes, most central bank representatives perceive "significant inflationary growth risks." Against this backdrop, the question of further monetary tightening remains pertinent. FOMC members continue to believe that a slight easing in the labor market and some reduction in US economic growth are needed to restore economic balance.

Many experts fear that the Federal Reserve might increase rates again and sustain them at elevated levels for an extended period. However, such a scenario is beneficial for the US dollar, as it bolsters its strength. According to specialist evaluations, the FOMC minutes hint at further rate hikes, lending support to the American currency.

In the evolving scenario, economists at Scotiabank express concerns about a potential weakening of the dollar during the second half of 2023, as the monetary policy tightening cycle appears to have peaked. So market participants anticipate a gradual reduction in the Federal Reserve's rates. Concurrently, Scotiabank believes that the robust growth of the American economy might decelerate.

"The challenges faced by the US economy take a backseat in light of the persisting inflationary pressures in Europe. This circumstance promotes the maintenance of high rates in the United States and a potential increase in Europe. The current situation leads to prolonged adverse effects on risk assets but could potentially be favorable for the dollar. A narrowing of spreads might pose a downside risk for the greenback, but this is a solvable issue," the bank concludes.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Cisco spurs growth: S&P 500 and Dow rise

Key points of the day:
Cisco surged due to strong quarterly results.
CVS shares dropped after Blue Shield of California's decision to change its business relationship.
Pfizer's stocks rose following reports of a new COVID-19 drug development.
Positive statistics: Unemployment claims dropped faster than predicted.
Major index declines: Dow by 0.84%, S&P 500 by 0.77%, Nasdaq by 1.07%.

Wall Street trading ended on Thursday with a decrease in major indices. The decline of healthcare companies' stocks exerted significant pressure on the market, overshadowing the positive performance of tech sector stocks like Cisco and the energy sector. Amid favorable economic data, investors' concerns about the potential persistence of high-interest rates intensified.

One of the day's main events was the 8% decline in CVS Health shares. This occurred after the intention of Blue Shield of California to review its business relations with the company, specifically as a pharmacy benefits manager, became public. It was also reported that the company is considering partnerships with other partners, including Amazon.com.

In addition to CVS, shares of other health insurance companies like UnitedHealth and Cigna also fell, leading to an overall deterioration of the healthcare sector's performance in the S&P 500 index.

At the end of the day, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% over the past three sessions — the biggest three-day drop since March. And the Nasdaq index showed a decline of 3.4% over three days, marking its most significant fall since February of this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 290.91 points, or 0.84%, closing at 34,474.83 points. The rise in oil prices acted as a catalyst for the growth of Exxon Mobil and Chevron stocks, which rose by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. This was spurred by expectations that the Chinese central bank would actively support its economy and real estate market.

However, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds reached its highest level since October, sparking fears that the Federal Reserve may maintain high-interest rates in light of recent positive economic indicators. Jeffrey Buchbinder of LPL Financial expressed the view that the stock market may be volatile in the short term due to this uncertainty.

According to the Department of Labor, unemployment claims decreased, pointing to ongoing tensions in the job market. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting emphasized battling inflation, amplifying uncertainty regarding future interest rate direction.

Fresh data suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates. However, the probability of such a decision has slightly decreased, now standing at 86.5%, compared to 89% last week, as indicated in the CME Group's Fedwatch tool.

Against this backdrop, Cisco Systems shares increased by 3.3%, thanks to better-than-expected quarterly results and comments from the CEO about the potential of artificial intelligence. Pfizer shares also rose, gaining 2.9%. This was prompted by news that their updated COVID-19 vaccine successfully underwent testing against the new "Eris" variant in mice.

Biotechnology companies' stocks, such as Moderna and Novavax, saw significant growth, possibly linked to an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US. According to the latest data, the number of virus-related hospitalizations has increased by more than 40% since June.

However, despite positive news from the medical industry, retail traders felt the pressure. For instance, Walmart, the largest retailer, despite surpassing second-quarter sales estimates and raising its annual forecast, still saw a 2.2% drop in stock value.

On the S&P 500 stock market, stocks that decreased in price outnumbered those that grew, with a ratio of 2.7 to 1. The index recorded two new all-time highs and 17 lows, while the Nasdaq showed 25 new highs and 252 lows.

The trading volume in the US was comparable to the average, amounting to 11.2 billion shares, slightly exceeding the average volume of 11.0 billion shares over the last 20 trading days.

While the CBOE volatility index, based on S&P 500 options trading indicators, increased, gold futures declined. Oil prices, including WTI and Brent, showed growth.

On the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair remained virtually unchanged, and the USD/JPY fell. Futures on the dollar index remained stable at 103.32.

Overall, US markets exhibited mixed dynamics, with growth in some sectors and declines in others, reflecting the complex interplay between economic, financial, and geopolitical risks.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USD/JPY: Calm before the storm ahead of Jackson Hole symposium

As we embark on a new trading week, the USD/JPY currency pair has taken a neutral stance, signaling a cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole scheduled for August 24-26. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's Chairman, Jerome Powell, whose speech will likely be a pivotal factor affecting the USD/JPY's trajectory. What can we expect from Powell's statement and how might it sway the greenback?

USD/JPY trapped in a sideways channel
The onset of Monday saw the USD/JPY pair settle into a neutral zone, with both currencies evenly matched and displaying little momentum.

Several factors currently serve as drivers for the yen:

Rising expectations of a potential change in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, propelled by July's unexpectedly high inflation figures. Last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to an annualized 3.3%, surpassing the forecast of 2.5%. Traders' worries about Tokyo's intervention in the market, given that USD/JPY consistently trades above the significant 145.00 threshold, a level where intervention happened last year.

Looming fears of a global recession, compounded by China's stuttering economic growth. Further fiscal stimuli from Beijing might boost the yen, given its export-dependent nature.

Worries about decelerating global growth also buoy the US dollar, given its reputation as a haven asset. Yet, the central divergence in the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains the strongest catalyst influencing the greenback's movements against the yen.

Speculations have long surrounded the BOJ's monetary approach. Still, the regulator sticks to its dovish strategy, hinting that no change is coming anytime soon.

Regarding the Federal Reserve, most investors anticipate a pause in its rate-hiking cycle in September. Yet, there's growing chatter about another tightening episode by year-end.

The recently released minutes from the FOMC's July meeting suggest that a significant chunk of Fed officials perceive an escalation in inflation risks, potentially warranting more hawkish measures.

Strong US macroeconomic indicators further underscore the robustness of its economy. A consensus among experts posits that these factors might allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance longer than was previously expected.

The burning question traders grapple with is the time the Federal Reserve will need to sustain elevated rates. Until a clear answer emerges, the greenback's consolidation phase is likely to persist.

Forecasts suggest that significant volatility in the USD majors, including the USD/JPY pair, is expected this Friday following Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The direction the US currency takes will largely depend on Powell's tone. If the market interprets his speech as hawkish, the dollar might receive a boost.

On the other hand, a dovish tone from the Fed Chair could send the greenback tumbling across the board, including against the yen.

What's the likely scenario?

The majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe Powell won't declare the Fed's anti-inflation mission as accomplished on Friday.

Nearly 80% of respondents asserted that US consumer price growth will remain above target levels in the coming years, necessitating the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance, which typically implies higher interest rates.

Analyst Jerome Schneider believes that persistent inflation will leave the Federal Reserve with no choice but to keep rates above the 5% mark for several months to come. He predicts the regulator might only commence rate reductions around mid-2024 or later.

It's probable that Powell won't specify any exact timelines during his Jackson Hole symposium speech. However, he might subtly indicate that the Fed's tightening cycle is far from over.

"We expect the Fed Chair to strike a more balanced tone in Wyoming. He'll likely hint at the end of the tightening cycle but emphasize the need to keep interest rates elevated for longer," commented Anna Wong for Bloomberg Economics.

If investors receive compelling evidence suggesting prolonged high interest rates in the US, the dollar could gain strength across all fronts, with USD/JPY being the main winner.

In an optimistic scenario, the greenback might strengthen against the yen to 147 by the week's end, provided there's no intervention warning from the Japanese government.

Technical outlook

The daily chart reveals a bullish exhaustion for the USD/JPY pair. The fading momentum is evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.

However, the pair remains above the 20-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating that buyers still dominate the market on a broader scale.

The most crucial zones to monitor now are support levels at 145.00, 144.00, and 143.20, and resistance levels at 145.50, 146.00, and 146.30.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Changes on the Horizon: Nasdaq Surges Thanks to Nvidia and Tech Giants, Investors' Eyes on Jackson Hole

GS is considering a move to sell a business segment for affluent clients. Palo Alto Networks is on the rise amid positive expectations. Indices: Dow dipped by 0.1%, S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, and Nasdaq soared by 1.6%. The week started strong for Nasdaq and S&P 500. Nvidia shares provided a significant boost, attracting optimistic investor outlooks. As other tech stocks have shown, interest in them is growing.

But not everything is rosy: the Dow Jones industrial index slightly conceded its position. Investors are closely monitoring the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, which has reached a level last seen during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007. All eyes are on the meeting of the heads of the world's central banks in Jackson Hole. On the agenda? Jerome Powell's statement on Friday.

The technology sector drives the most significant growth of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Nvidia shares rocketed 8.5%, primarily due to HSBC, which set a target share price of $780 - one of the highest on Wall Street.

Nvidia, the AI market star this year, is forecasted to exceed analysts' quarterly income predictions. The company's shares have shot up 220% over the year, with Nasdaq maintaining a 29% growth rate.

In a nutshell about Nvidia: "Nvidia is top-tier artificial intelligence," says Quincy Crosby from LPL Financial. "It'll be interesting to see if they meet their set targets... Nvidia might become the main player this week."

And don't forget to pay attention to the US Federal Reserve: its leaders will gather for an essential annual symposium in Jackson Hole.

Everyone is awaiting Powell's speech to gauge the pulse of the economy and understand the next steps regarding rates. This anticipation is particularly heightened after recent central bank data made many ponder the possibility of inflation growth.

And what about the stock market? Dow Jones slightly decreased, losing 36.97 points. But stay optimistic, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved upwards, gaining 30.06 and 206.81 points, respectively.

Regarding company news, Johnson & Johnson shares dropped by 3%. Why? They expect to retain about 9.5% in their new Kenvue division. And yes, Goldman Sachs also took a slight hit, contemplating the sale of part of its assets.

Meanwhile, in the tech world, Palo Alto Networks shares are thriving, showing a 14.8% growth! Their latest report, with strong quarterly data and forecasts, has convinced many of their stability. VMware hasn't been left out either; their shares jumped by 4.9% following the approval of a deal with Broadcom, which, by the way, is also up by 4.8%.

Activity on the U.S. stock exchanges was below average. A total of 9.75 billion shares were traded, less than the standard of 10.99 billion looking at the past 20 trading days.

When it comes to individual stocks, the situation was more complex. On the NYSE, declining stocks outnumbered the advancing ones at a ratio of 1.44 to 1. As for Nasdaq, the advantage was with the declining stocks, with a ratio of 1.08 to 1.

An interesting fact: The S&P 500 presented itself rather ambiguously, showing 3 new annual highs and a whole 18 lows. And Nasdaq? There was even greater volatility there, with 36 new highs and a staggering 214 new lows. This indicates that investors are currently on their toes, evaluating a plethora of factors before making buy or sell decisions.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: EUROZONE FLASH PMI DATA DUE

Purchasing Managers' survey results from the euro area and the UK are the top economic news due on Wednesday.

At 3.15 am ET, France's flash composite Purchasing Managers' survey results are due. The composite index is forecast to rise to 47.5 in August from 46.6 in the previous month. At 3.30 am ET, S&P Global is scheduled to release Germany's composite PMI survey results. The composite output index is expected to fall to 48.3 in August from 48.5 a month ago.

At 4.00 am ET, Eurozone flash PMI survey data is due. Economists expect the composite indicator to ease to 48.5 in August from 48.6 in the previous month.

Half an hour later, UK S&P/CIPS composite PMI survey results are due. The composite index is seen at 50.3 in August compared to 50.8 a month ago.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: FRANCE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

Business sentiment survey data from France is the top economic news due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE releases monthly business confidence survey data. The business sentiment index is forecast to fall to 99 in August from 100 in July.

At 3.00 am ET, business sentiment survey data is due from the Czech Republic.

At 4.00 am ET, Statistics Poland is slated to release unemployment data for July. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 5.00 percent.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry publishes Distributive Trades survey data for August.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

GERMAN ECONOMY STABILIZES AS ESTIMATED IN Q2

Germany's economy stabilized as estimated in the second quarter as weak foreign demand offset the strength in government spending and investment, latest data from Destatis showed Friday.

Gross domestic product posted nil growth in the second quarter after a 0.1 percent fall in the first quarter and a 0.4 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2022.

With the latest flat growth, the biggest euro area economy ended a short period of recession.

The statistical office confirmed the preliminary estimate published on July 28.

"After slight declines in the previous two quarters, the German economy stabilized in spring," Destatis President Ruth Brand said.

"We continue to see the German economy being stuck in the twilight zone between stagnation and recession," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.

In the latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projected the German economy to shrink 0.3 percent this year before rebounding 1.3 percent in 2024.

On a yearly basis, the price-adjusted GDP dropped 0.6 percent in contrast to the 0.1 percent rise a quarter ago. Calendar-adjusted GDP fell 0.2 percent, the same rate of decline as reported in the first quarter.

Both price-adjusted and calendar-adjusted growth figures were confirmed. The expenditure-side of GDP showed that household spending remained unchanged in the second quarter and government spending rebounded 0.1 percent following a 1.9 percent fall a quarter ago.

Gross fixed capital formation gained 2.1 percent, reversing a 1.7 percent fall in the preceding period.

Data showed that exports slid 1.1 percent, offsetting the 0.4 percent rise in the first quarter. By contrast, imports stabilized after a 1.5 percent decrease.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN LEADING INDEX FALLS AS ESTIMATED

Japan's leading index weakened as initially estimated at the end of the second quarter, the latest data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.

The leading index, which measures future economic activity, dropped to 108.9 in June from a six-month high of 109.1 in May. That was in line with the flash data published on August 7.

The coincident index that measures the current economic situation rose to a 10-month high of 115.1 in June from 114.3 in the previous month, as estimated.

Data showed that the lagging index rose somewhat to 107.3 from 107.2 in the previous month. The reading was the strongest since January 2020

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 2.7% IN JULY

The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in July, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for 2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from the June reading.

The jobs-to-applicant ratio ticked down to 1.29, shy of forecasts for 1.30, which again would have been unchanged.

The participation rate was 63.1 percent, matching forecasts and steady from the June level.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

AUSTRALIA CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE ADDS 0.4% IN Q2

The value of total construction work done in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2023, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$59.010 billion.

That missed forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 1.8 percent gain in the three months prior.

The increase was driven by engineering work, which rose 0.7 percent in the June quarter and is 15.5 percent higher than the same time last year. Building work done rose 0.2 percent and is 4.3 percent higher than the same time last year.

The value of building work done rose 0.2 percent in the June quarter.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN RETAIL SALES JUMP 6.8% ON YEAR IN JULY

The total value of retail sales in Japan was up 6.8 percent on year in July, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday - coming in at 13.924 trillion yen.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 5.4 percent following the downwardly revised 5.6 percent gain in June (originally 5.9 percent).

On a monthly basis, retail sales advanced 2.1 percent after slipping 0.6 percent in June.

Sales from large retailers improved an annual 6.0 percent, up from 4.0 percent a month earlier.

Wholesale sales were down 0.7 percent on year and up 1.3 percent on month at 35.638 trillion yen, while commercial sales rose 1.3 percent on year and 1.5 percent on month to 49.562 trillion yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

CHINA MANUFACTURING SECTOR PIVOTS TO EXPANSION - CAIXIN

The manufacturing sector in China climbed into expansion territory in August, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.0.

That's up from 49.2 in July and it moves above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Supporting the improvement in overall business conditions was a renewed increase in new order intakes. Companies indicated that firmer underlying market conditions had helped to boost client spending. The modest upturn in overall sales occurred despite a further drop in new business from abroad in August, suggesting that stronger domestic demand was the main source of growth.

The downturn in new export orders did ease compared to July, however, and was only mild. Companies responded to greater amounts of new work by expanding production during August. Though modest, the rate of output growth was among the best seen over the past year.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY FOREIGN TRADE DATA DUE

Foreign trade from Germany and quarterly national accounts from Switzerland are the top economic news due on Monday.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's foreign trade figures for July. Exports are forecast to fall 1.5 percent on month, in contrast to the 0.1 percent rise in June. Meanwhile, imports are seen rising 0.5 percent after a 3.4 percent decrease.

At 3.00 am ET, GDP data is due from Switzerland. The economy is forecast to grow 0.1 percent in the second quarter after rising 0.3 percent a quarter ago.

In the meantime, unemployment data is due from Spain. The number of unemployed is seen falling 21,300 in August after declining 11,000 in July.

At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence survey results are due. The sentiment indicator is expected to fall to -19.6 in September from -18.9 in August.

At 9.30 am ET, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak at a seminar organized by the European Economics & Financial Centre.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED

Australia's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third straight meeting on Tuesday.

The policy board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, led by Governor Philip Lowe, decided to hold the cash rate target at 4.10 percent.

The interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances was kept unchanged at 4.00 percent.

The RBA has raised the key rate by 4 percentage points since May last year. The board observed that the higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so.

Today's decision to retain the rate will provide further time to assess the impact of past tightening and the economic outlook.

The bank expects inflation to return to the 2-3 percent target range in late 2025. Lowe said some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. Nonetheless, future action will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks, the governor added.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

CHINESE YUAN FALLS TO 10-MONTH LOW AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR

The Chinese yuan weakened against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session on Wednesday.

Against the greenback, the yuan slid to a 10-month low of 7.3217 from a recent high of 7.3098. At yesterday's close, the yuan was trading at 7.3040 against the greenback.

If the yuan extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around the 7.34 area.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DATA DUE

Industrial production from Germany and house prices from the UK are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's industrial production for July. Output is forecast to fall 0.5 percent on month, slower than the 1.5 percent decrease in June.

In the meantime, UK Halifax house price data is due. Economists forecast house prices to drop 0.3 percent on month in August, the same pace of decrease as seen in July.

At 2.45 am ET, foreign trade and current account figures are due from France. The trade deficit is seen at EUR 6.8 billion in July compared to a shortfall of EUR 6.7 billion in June.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is set to publish retail sales for July. Sales had increased 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in June.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's statistical office ISTAT publishes retail sales for July. Economists forecast sales to grow 0.2 percent, offsetting the 0.2 percent fall in June. At 5.00 am ET, revised GDP data is due from the euro area. The preliminary estimate showed that the currency bloc expanded 0.3 percent sequentially in the second quarter after remaining flat a quarter ago.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY FINAL INFLATION DATA DUE

Final inflation from Germany and industrial production from France are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's final inflation data for August. The flash estimate showed that consumer price inflation slowed 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July.

In the meantime, Statistics Sweden releases GDP, household consumption, industrial output and new orders.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE is set to release industrial production data for July. Output is expected to grow 0.1 percent on a monthly basis, in contrast to the 0.9 percent fall in June.

At 3.00 am ET, industrial output figures are due from Austria and Spain. Economists forecast Spain's industrial output to decline 2.0 percent annually in July after a 3.0 percent decrease seen in June.

At 5.00 am ET, inflation and industrial output reports are due from Greece.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN M2 MONEY STOCK +2.5% ON YEAR IN AUGUST

The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.5 percent on year in August, the Bank of Japan said on Monday - coming in at 1,238.6 trillion yen.

That was steady from the July reading following an upward revision from 2.4 percent.

The M3 money stock was up an annual 1.9 percent for the second straight month at 1,594.7 trillion yen, while the L money stock gained 2.2 percent on year to 2,121.1 trillion yen.

The adjusted money stock was up 1.6 percent on year at 2,114.6 trillion yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN M2 MONEY STOCK +2.5% ON YEAR IN AUGUST

The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.5 percent on year in August, the Bank of Japan said on Monday - coming in at 1,238.6 trillion yen.

That was steady from the July reading following an upward revision from 2.4 percent.

The M3 money stock was up an annual 1.9 percent for the second straight month at 1,594.7 trillion yen, while the L money stock gained 2.2 percent on year to 2,121.1 trillion yen.

The adjusted money stock was up 1.6 percent on year at 2,114.6 trillion yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EURO RISES AGAINST MAJORS

The euro strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday.

The euro rose to a 5-day high of 0.8599 against the pound and nearly a 2-week high of 0.9589 against the Swiss franc, from recent lows of 0.8580 and 0.9571, respectively.

Against the U.S. and the Canadian dollars, the euro advanced to a 1-week high of 1.0768 and a 4-day high of 1.4621 from Monday's closing quotes of 1.0748 and 1.4587, respectively.

The euro edged up to 157.78 against the yen, from yesterday's closing value of 157.53.

If the euro extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 0.87 against the pound, 0.97 against the franc, 1.10 against the greenback, 1.48 against the loonie and 160.00 against the yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.3% ON MONTH IN AUGUST

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on month in August, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 0.1 percent, which would have been unchanged from the July reading.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 3.2 percent - in line with expectations and down from the downwardly revised 3.4 percent increase in the previous month (originally 3.6 percent).

Export prices were up 0.5 percent on month and down 0.8 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices slumped 0.9 percent on month and 15.9 percent on year.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN CORE MACHINE ORDERS SINK 1.1% IN JULY

The value of core machine orders in Japan slumped a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent on month in July, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 844.9 billion yen.

That missed expectations for a decline of 0.9 percent following the 2.7 percent increase in June.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders stumbled 13.0 percent - again shy of forecasts for a decline of 10.7 percent after shedding 5.8 percent in the previous month.

For the third quarter of 2023, core machine orders are seen lower by 2.6 percent on quarter and 7.9 percent on year at 2,517.4 billion yen.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 9.8 percent on month and 0.8 percent on year to 2,901.4 billion yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN CORE MACHINE ORDERS SINK 1.1% IN JULY

The value of core machine orders in Japan slumped a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent on month in July, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 844.9 billion yen.

That missed expectations for a decline of 0.9 percent following the 2.7 percent increase in June.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders stumbled 13.0 percent - again shy of forecasts for a decline of 10.7 percent after shedding 5.8 percent in the previous month.

For the third quarter of 2023, core machine orders are seen lower by 2.6 percent on quarter and 7.9 percent on year at 2,517.4 billion yen.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 9.8 percent on month and 0.8 percent on year to 2,901.4 billion yen.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

CHINA INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT, RETAIL SALES GROWTH IMPROVE IN AUGUST

China's industrial production and retail sales growth improved more than expected in August, official data revealed on Friday.

Industrial production posted an annual increase of 4.5 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. Output was expected to climb moderately by 3.9 percent in August after rising 3.7 percent in July.

Likewise, growth in retail sales improved to 4.6 percent in August from 2.5 percent in the previous month. This was also better than economists' forecast of 3.0 percent.

During January to August period, fixed asset investment increased 3.2 percent from the same period last year, data showed. However, the rate was slightly weaker than the expected 3.3 percent.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

SINGAPORE NODX SINKS 3.8% IN AUGUST

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) were down 3.8 percent on month in August, Statistics Singapore said on Monday.

That missed expectations for an increase of 5.6 percent following the downwardly revised 3.5 percent contraction in July (originally -3.4 percent).

On a yearly basis, exports slumped 20.1 percent - again missing forecasts for a decline of 15/8 percent after stumbling a downwardly revised 20.3 percent in the previous month (originally -20-2 percent).

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

NZ DOLLAR RISES AGAINST MAJORS

The New Zealand dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Tuesday.

The NZ dollar rose to a 4-day high of 0.5928 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing value of 0.5917.

Against the yen and the euro, the kiwi edged up to 87.48 and 1.8045 from yesterday's closing quotes of 87.33 and 1.8064, respectively.

Moving away from an early low of 1.0884 against the Australian dollar, the kiwi advanced to a 5-day high of 1.0870.

If the kiwi extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around 0.61 against the greenback, 88.00 against the yen, 1.78 against the euro and 1.06 against the aussie.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN TRADE DEFICIT Y930.477 BILLION IN AUGUST

Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 930.477 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

That was well shy of expectations for a shortfall of 659.1 billion yen following the upwardly revised 66.3 billion yen deficit in July (originally -78.7 billion yen).

Exports were down 0.8 percent on year at 7.994 trillion yen, beating forecasts for a decline of 1.7 percent following the 0.3 percent drop in the previous month.

Imports slumped an annual 17.8 percent to 8.924 trillion yen versus expectations for a fall of 19.4 percent following the downwardly revised 13.6 percent contraction a month earlier (originally -13.5 percent).

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST MAJORS

The Australian dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday.

The Australian dollar fell to a 5-week low of 0.8639 against the Canadian dollar and an 8-day low of 0.6403 against the U.S. dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.8675 and 0.6445, respectively.

Against the euro and the yen, the aussie slipped to 2-day lows of 1.6608 and 94.94 from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.6533 and 95.60, respectively.

The aussie edged down to 1.0842 against the NZ dollar, from Wednesday's closing value of 1.0870.

If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.85 against the loonie, 0.65 against the greenback, 1.68 against the euro, 93.00 against the yen and 1.06 against the kiwi.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

Business confidence data from Germany is the only major report due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE releases producer prices data for August. Prices had declined 8.4 percent annually in July.

In the meantime, business and consumer sentiment survey data is due from the Czech Republic.

At 4.00 am ET, the ifo Institute publishes Germany's business sentiment survey results for September. The confidence index is seen falling to 85.2 from 85.7 in August.

At 9.00 am ET, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to give introductory statement at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

SOUTH KOREA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WEAKENS TO 4-MONTH LOW

South Korea's consumer sentiment weakened in September to the lowest level in four months, as households' current and future living conditions worsened, survey results from the Bank of Korea showed on Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index fell to 99.7 in September from 103.1 in August.

This was the lowest reading since May 2022, when it was 98.0.

The consumer confidence survey was conducted between September 11 and 18, among 2,500 households.

The sub-index for households' assessment of the prospective living standards dropped to 92 from 95, and the measure for the current living standards dropped to 89 from 91.

Similarly, the index measuring consumers' prospective household income decreased to 99 to 100 in July.

South Koreans were less pessimistic about their job prospects and the relevant index dropped to 74.0 from 84.

Their interest rate expectations remained stable in September, and the measure came in at 99.0.

The expected inflation rate for the upcoming year was 4.1 percent versus 4.2 percent in August.

Households' expectations for the domestic economic conditions in the future weakened from 72 to 66.0.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMAN GFK CONSUMER SENTIMENT DATA DUE

Consumer confidence from Germany and France are the top economic data due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the market research group GfK is scheduled to issue Germany's consumer sentiment survey results. Economists forecast the forward-looking consumer confidence index to remain unchanged at -25.5 in October.

In the meantime, unemployment from Norway and foreign trade data from Sweden are due. At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE publishes consumer confidence survey data. Economists forecast the consumer sentiment index to fall to 84 in September from 85 in the previous month.

At 3.00 am ET, the National Institute of Economic Research releases Sweden's economic tendency survey results for September.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is set to release euro area monetary aggregates for August. M3 money supply is forecast to fall 1.0 percent annually after a 0.4 percent drop in July.

Also, manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Austria.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY FLASH INFLATION DATA DUE

Flash inflation from Germany and economic sentiment survey results from the euro area are the top economic news due on Thursday.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway publishes retail sales and household consumption data.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's statistical office INE is slated to release flash consumer prices and retail sales data. Economists forecast inflation to rise to 3.5 percent in September from 2.6 percent in August.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes monthly bulletin. In the meantime, business and consumer sentiment survey results and producer prices are due from Italy.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission is set to issue economic sentiment survey results. The economic confidence index is expected to drop to 92.5 in September from 93.3 in August.

At 8.00 am ET, flash inflation figures are due from Germany. Consumer price inflation is forecast to ease sharply to 4.6 percent in September from 6.1 percent in August.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNCHANGED IN AUGUST

Industrial output in Japan came in flat in August, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That beat expectations for a decline of 0.8 percent following the 1.8 percent drop in July.

On a yearly basis, industrial production fell 3.8 percent after slipping 2.3 percent in the previous month.

Upon the release of the data, the METI announced its assessment of production to fluctuating indecisively.

Industries that saw increased production included petroleum and coal products, communications electronics equipment and fabricated metals. These were offset by declines among motor vehicles, iron and steel and transport equipment.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED

Australia's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.

The policy board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.10 percent. The decision matched economists' expectations.

The central bank has raised its key rates by 4 percentage points since May last year. "The higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy and will continue to do so," Governor Michele Bullock said.

"Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risk," she added.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK KEEPS KEY RATE UNCHANGED

New Zealand's central bank decided to hold its benchmark rate unchanged, as widely expected, on Wednesday.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the Official Cash Rate at 5.50 percent. The committee decided to keep the interest rate at a restrictive level to ensure that inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent target range and to support maximum sustainable employment.

Policymakers observed that there is a near-term risk of activity and inflation not slowing as much as needed. Further, a greater slowdown in global economic demand, particularly in China could damp commodity prices and in turn export revenue.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY FOREIGN TRADE DATA DUE

Foreign trade and construction Purchasing Managers' survey results from Germany are the top economic news due on Thursday.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's external trade data for August. Exports are forecast to fall 0.4 percent on month, while imports are expected to climb 0.5 percent.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office INSEE is scheduled to release industrial production for August. Economists expect industrial output to drop 0.4 percent on a monthly basis, in contrast to the 0.8 percent increase in July.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE publishes industrial output for August. Output is seen falling 2.1 percent annually after a 1.8 percent drop in July.

At 3.30 am ET, Germany's construction Purchasing Managers' survey results are due.

At 4.30 am ET, S&P Global releases UK construction PMI data for September. The index is seen at 49.9, down from 50.8 in August.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN LEADING INDEX RISES TO 109.5, HIGHEST IN 9 MONTHS

Japan's leading index improved in August to the highest level in nine months, preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed on Friday.

The leading index, which measures future economic activity, rose to 109.5 in August from 108.2 in July.

Further, this was the highest reading since November last year, when it was 109.6.

The coincident index that measures the current economic situation increased somewhat to a 114.3 in August from 114.2 in the previous month.

Data showed that the lagging index climbed to 106.0 from 105.7 in the previous month.

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