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The trading plan for the US session is EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD
To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:
Buyers are trying to get ahold of the level of 1.2252, and while the trade is higher, a chance remains for continued growth of the euro with an update of 1.2294 and the main purpose of a test at 1.2342, where I recommend locking in profits. In the event of a decline below the level of 1.2252 in the afternoon, consider new purchases of the euro after a test at the level of 1.2215, or immediately towards a rebound from 1.2169.
To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:
A return to the level of 1.2252 would be a good signal to increase short positions on the euro for the purpose of a breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.2215, which opens a direct road to the area of 1.2169, where I recommend locking in profits. In case the euro further grows, it is possible to look for short positions after the formation of a false breakout at 1.2294 or on a rebound from 1.2342.

GBP/USD
To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required: Buyers are trying to work out a scenario in the morning in order to consolidate above 1.3886, and while the trade is at this level, you can count on continuing an upward trend with an exit towards a resistance of 1.3940. The main target remains in the area of 1.4018. In the event of a return below the level of 1.3886, I recommend that you pay attention to long positions on the pound only after a test at 1.3839.
To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:
The return at 1.3886 will signal an opening of short positions for the pound, which will lead to the renewal of daily lows in the area of 1.3839 and will likely reach a new support level of 1.3797, where I recommend locking in the profit. In case of continued growth in the pound during the afternoon, short positions can be considered for a rebound from 1.3940.

Indicator description
Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA Bollinger Bands 20

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

NZD/USD right on major support, time to go long

The price is testing major support at 0.7312 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, long-term ascending support, bullish price action) and a bounce could occur at this level to push the price up to at least 0.7436 resistance (major swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension). RSI (55) sees a long-term ascending support line since November 2017 hold up our bullish momentum really well. We're starting to see a possible break of this long-term support line but our major support remains at 51% and only a clean break of that level would be a precursor that a drop is coming. Buy above 0.7312. Stop loss at 0.7256. Take profit at 0.7436.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Gold forming a cup and handle reversal, prepare for a strong drop!

Gold has formed a really strong reversal of a cup and handle formation. We look to sell below major resistance at 1344 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, cup and handle breakout level) where a strong drop is expected to push the price down to at least 1325 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing descending resistance hold it down really well which corresponds to the drop we're expecting.

Sell below 1344. Stop loss at 1353. Take profit at 1325.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The buyers of the euro are ready

Despite weak performance in the manufacturing sector, the European currency continues to make attempts to grow against the US dollar. It is maintaining an upward price channel.

It was only in Italy where there was an increase in the index of production while in France and Germany, the similar index slowed slightly.

According to the report of the statics agency, the index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in Italy for the month of January this year rose to 59.0 points, compared to 57.4 points in December last year. Economists predicted the index at the level of 57.3 points.

In France, there is a marked decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. According to the report, the index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in January fell to 58.4 points against the December index of 58.8 points. Economists and market participants did expect a decline to the level of 58.1 points.

In Germany, the index of supply managers also slowed its growth. According to the data, PMI for Germany's manufacturing sector in January fell to 61.1 points against 63.3 points in December 2017. Economists had expected the index to fall to the level of 61.2 points.

If we talk about the euro area as a whole, then there is also a slight decline. According to the statistics agency, the index of supply managers PMI for the production area of the eurozone in January dropped to 59.6 points, compared to 60.6 points in December. The data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

It is important to note that finding the index above the level of 50 points indicates an increase in activity.

The current data that's at a rather slight decline in indicators at the beginning of this year will not likely affect the data on GDP seriously in the first quarter of 2018, which is confirmed by the market reaction to the data.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, so far the situation is developing in favor of buyers as it managed to keep the trade in an upward price channel. The lower limit of this level is at the January 30 low. The breakthrough of resistance at the level of 1.2470 opens up good prospects for the EURUSD pair for further growth of the trading instrument in the area of annual maximums at 1.2540.

A similar index that's already in the UK, also did not put pressure on the British pound, even despite its slowdown to a 6-month low.

According to a report by research company IHS Markit Ltd., the index of supply managers for the UK manufacturing sector in January was 55.3 points compared to 56.2 points in December. The value of the index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 56.5 points.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 06, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail PMI, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, and Trade Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2444.
Strong Resistance:1.2437.
Original Resistance: 1.2425.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2413.
Target Inner Area: 1.2384.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2355.
Original Support: 1.2343.
Strong Support: 1.2331.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2324.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of USDX for February 08, 2018

The index managed to do a rebound above the 200 SMA and gathered momentum towards the 90.30 level. A higher continuation is expected once USDX does a break above 90.63. To the downside, the 200 SMA continues to provide dynamic support but if it gives up, the bearish side could get again another breath.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75 H1
chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 89.36, take profit is at 87.88 and stop loss is at 90.81.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Euro and Pound Test Key Support

Eurozone
The euro makes weak attempts to stay above 1.22, but success is possible only if the wave of panic in the stock and debt markets goes down, taking the form of correction, although deeper.
On Wednesday, the consumer inflation index will be published in Germany in January. It is expected to show a decline from 1.6% to 1.4% relative to December, but according to the forecast, the HICP index should remain unchanged at 1.4%. Also on Wednesday, Eurostat will publish an estimate of the eurozone's GDP in the fourth quarter, and there are no reasons for concern either - the PMI Markit and ESI economic activity indicators calculated by the European Commission are growing at a record pace, which, given the high correlation between PMI and GDP, which makes it possible to look at economic growth with optimism.

The problem for the eurozone is something different - the growing surplus of foreign trade leads to the need to seek the use of surplus capital. At the same time, the growth of inflation in the eurozone is not sufficient to force the ECB to begin the unwinding of its monetary policy. The spread between the yields of European and American securities is growing, and the capital from the eurozone will be in demand by investors in the US if rates in US banks continue to grow, especially since the threat of four rate hikes in the current year suddenly became real.

Monetary authorities of the eurozone will not prevent the outflow of excess capital, since this process will allow the euro to be controlled, but if the panic in the markets continues and it comes to a serious crisis, the euro may significantly weaken. Correction of the EUR USD pair is not yet completed, it is possible to decrease to 1.21, but the chances to stay above this support are still high. On Monday, the euro could return to zone 1.2305 / 20, further dynamics will be determined by whether a wave of panic that has covered the markets will develop.

United Kingdom
The pound last week has undergone multidirectional pressure. On Wednesday, the Bank of England supported the pound, leaving the rate unchanged and at the same time hinting that it could accelerate the process of raising rates due to higher economic growth rates.

Updated forecasts suggest GDP growth in 2018 at 1.8%, which, however, is below the growth rates in the US and the euro area, the equilibrium unemployment rate is reduced from 4.5% to 4.25%, and inflation by 2020 will be 2.2%, which is higher than the target 2%, which means an increase in the rate is required.

At the same time, as can be seen from the report, the growth of inflation occurred due to other goods, that is, most likely due to imports. The strengthening of the pound eliminates this factor in the coming months.

However, on Friday, the pound's declined resumed after the EU negotiator Michel Barnier stated that the Brexit agreement might not be reached. It is obvious that Brexit still remains the main factor of influence on the pound rate.

On Tuesday, data for January on retail sales and consumer inflation will be published. The forecasts are neutral and meet the expectations of the Bank of England. Determining the dynamics of the pound will continue to be based statements on Brexit, as well as the development of the situation with sales in the stock and debt markets. At the level of 1.3700/30 is the key support level, the pound has a chance to stay higher, the breakdown will worsen the technical picture and will contribute to a rapid decline on the background of flight from risk.

Oil
The weakening of oil looks like a rout, which is expected, based on the development of the situation in the markets. Oil reacts to the threat of slowing the growth of global GDP and the development of a full-scale crisis, and this is the main driver of decline.

Another factor contributing to the decline is the production growth in the US. In addition, Baker Hughes reported a sharp increase in the number of drilling last week by 29 pcs, which indicates an increase in investment in the industry.

Support for Brent resisted until 60.98, the channel is still up, so growth attempts after the formation of the bottom are not ruled out.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Good data on inflation led to the growth of the US dollar

The euro slumped in relation to the US dollar in the morning, before the release of important data on inflation in the US. The main reason for the pressure on the euro could be data on the slowdown in economic activity in Germany at the end of last year.

According to the report, Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, increased by 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was 2.3%. These data fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

As noted in the statistics agency, the good growth rates are maintained due to the high external demand for premium goods. The acceleration of exports was also indicated.

Inflation in Germany slowed at the beginning of this year, which is an alarming call for the ECB. According to the data, the consumer price index fell by 0.7% in January of this year compared with December 2017, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. Core inflation fell by 1.0%.

Italy's GDP showed the fastest growth in the last seven years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics Istat, Italy's economy in 2017 grew by 1.6% compared with 2016.

As for the growth of the eurozone's GDP, the growth in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd quarter was 0.6%, and compared to the same period in 2016, GDP increased by 2.7%. These data also fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

The good economic indicators of the Eurozone at the end of 2017 have repeatedly led the European Central Bank to pay attention to the current situation in monetary policy, as well as the volume of the bond repurchase program, the reduction of which could lead to further euro growth in the medium term.

Data on the growth of inflation in the second half of Wednesday increased demand for the US dollar, which managed to regain even more positions lost at the beginning of the week against the euro and the British pound.

According to the report, the consumer price index in the US in January 2018 increased by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of economists, who expected an increase in inflation of only 0.3%. Compared to the same period in 2017, inflation increased by 2.1%.


The base index, which does not take into account volatile prices, increased by 0.3% in January, with a growth forecast of 0.2%. Compared to the same period in 2017, the index grew by 1.8%.

Given such good performance, the short-term growth of the US dollar against the euro and the pound may continue, as it is possible that a good inflation rate in the US could seriously affect the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which could again be hiked this spring.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 20, 2018

Wave summary:
A break above the minor resistance at 1.6865 will indicate that the wave ii has completed and the wave iii higher to 1.7470 and 1.7777 is developing.

As long as the minor resistance at 1.6865 is able to cap the upside as long must we allow for a final spike lower to 1.6740 before completing the wave ii.
R3: 169.78
R2: 1.6860
R1: 1.6825
Pivot: 1.6770
S1: 1.6740
S2: 1.6681
S3: 1.6630

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6790 with stop placed at 1.6690.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Weak data on the euro area is weighing on the euro

Weak data, including the preliminary, in the production and services sectors of the euro area put pressure on the European currency in the first half of the day. However, there was no significant sale of risky assets. This again indicates that most traders will focus on the Federal Reserve's protocols today.

The British pound collapsed against the US dollar after the release of a weak report on the UK labor market, where there was a significant surge in the number of unemployed.

In Germany, which is the flagship of the European economy, the growth rates of the manufacturing and services sectors have slowed. According to IHS Markit, the purchasing managers' index for the German services sector in February 2018 dropped to 55.3 points versus 57.3 points in January with economists expecting the February value to be at 57.0 points. The PMI for the manufacturing sector fell to 60.3 points from 61.1 points in January.

The preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in France also fell in February, reaching 56.1 points compared to 58.4 points in January. Economists had expected a less significant decline, to a level of 58.1 points.

The preliminary index of supply managers for the services sector in France dropped to 57.9 points in February against 59.2 points in January this year. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged at 59.2 points.

As a result business activity in general for the euro area slowed in February.

According to the report of IHS Markit, the composite index of supply managers of the eurozone in February fell to 57.5 points from 58.8 points in January. It is important to note that a value of above 50 in the index indicates an increase in activity. Economists also expected the decline but only to 58.5 points.

The technical picture in the EURUSD pair remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast. In the event of a decline in the euro after the publication of the Fed's protocols, opening long positions is best after the major support levels of 1.2240 and 1.2200 have been updated.

The British pound, as noted above, fell sharply against the US dollar after it became known that unemployment in the UK in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of unemployed in the UK increased by 46,000 from October to December 2017. The unemployment rate was at 4.4% while economists expected unemployment to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The ECB (European Central Bank) is disturbed

Eurozone
According to the macroeconomic studies published last week, the expansion period of the eurozone economy that lasted for at least two years is coming to an end.

The evaluation of the ZEW Institute that showed a slowdown in growth rates was confirmed by other studies. All three PMI Markit indices came in worse in January than in December, despite the continuous expansion, the rates are slowing down.

Business climate indices and economic expectations of IFO in February, significantly slowed down, while the expansion phase is completed. Companies are less satisfied with the current business situation, as euphoria is coming to an end, indices are falling across the entire spectrum of the economy specifically in production, wholesale, and construction.

The minutes of January meeting of the ECB was published on Thursday, which contained a number of disturbing statements. In particular, a number of ECB members expressed displeasure with the intention of the US authorities to help administrative measures to reduce the dollar, which, among other things, will be reflected in damage to the European economy and reduce import prices.

The ECB has no unity on the continuation of soft policy since strong economic performance and the growing euro prevents finding the balance.

On Wednesday, inflation data will be published in the euro area for February. While the outlook is negative which could possibly decline to 1.2%, and will help reduce the euro, update the February lows and attempt to reach the support zone at 1.2105 / 40.

United Kingdom
The British pound reacted by reducing the number of negative macroeconomic data. The GDP growth in 4 square meters is composed of 1.4% only, which is lower than expected. The weak data is because of the decline in the consumer demand amid high inflation, which is the minimum result for 5 years.

The increase of commercial investment in 2017 was 2.1% with a forecast of 2.4%, the growth was unexpected to be completely zero in the fourth quarter.

According to CBI, the growth of retail sales continues to slow down, the overall balance has decreased to + 8p against + 12p in January, which indicates a decrease in household incomes.

The pound is under pressure despite the favorable external background. Briefly, the dollar looks stronger but the positive expectations from the Brexit talks on March 22-23 will soon start to have a stronger impact. The formed wedge is threatened with a breakthrough, but its horizontal pattern does not provide an opportunity to indicate the direction. The Support can be found at 1.3855, and the resistance is at 1.4008.

Oil
Oil received a number of positive signals last week, which allowed the quotations to come back to the level of $ 70/ barrel. The first factor was the publication of the report from the US Department of Energy, which states that hydrocarbon reserves were reduced by 1.6 million barrels against a backdrop of sustained production growth. While the markets expect an increase in inventories of 1.9 million barrels.

OPEC was inspired by the success of collaboration intended to change the setup of relations into a long-term direction, for which experts from both OPEC and independent producers are working on. The structure of a new partnership will begin to operate after the expiration of the current agreement in late 2018.

Oil has the potential for further growth, which is supported by the sustained recovery of the world economy against the backdrop of controlling production volumes. If Brent quotes will be able to hold above 64.20 until next week, it is likely to establish a next high close to January's 70.82.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Data on the US economy supported the US dollar

Data on inflation in Germany did not affect the quotations of the European currency, as attention was solely focused on the speech of the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

According to the statistics agency, Germany's preliminary consumer price index rose 0.5% in February from January, while the index grew 1.4% compared to the same period in 2017. These data almost completely coincided with the expectations of experts who projected an increase of 0.5% and 1.5% respectively.

The base index, which does not take into account the volatile categories of goods, also increased by 0.5% in February and by 1.2% compared to February 2017. Given the fact that the data was in line with economists' forecasts, recent statements by ECB representatives that the stance of monetary policy will remain unchanged, along with the confirmation of such intent by the president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, it speaks of the weak prospects for the growth of the euro in the early spring of this year .

The data pointing to a drop in demand for goods with a long service life, passed for investors without a trace. According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods in January this year decreased by 3.7% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected the decline to be 1.6%. As noted in the report, the main drop was mainly due to a 10% decrease in orders for transportation equipment. New orders for capital goods fell by 0.2%. The fall of this indicator is the first "call" that consumers are starting to save more.

Housing prices in the US in December of last year continued to grow. This report was presented by CoreLogic/Case-Shiller. Thus, the national housing price index in December grew by 6.3% compared to the same period last year. As experts say, the current sharp rise in prices already exceeds the growth of salaries in the US, which can affect inflation this year and slow it down a little.

Good data on consumer confidence in the US only supported the US dollar, which began its rapid growth after the speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.

According to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in February this year reached 130.8 points against 124.3 points in January. Economists had expected the index in February to be 127.0 points. The report also indicates that the volatility of the stock market did not affect consumers who showed higher optimism about short-term prospects.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 2, 2018


Wave summary:
There is not really anything new to say here. We continue to look for a continuation higher through the resistance at 1.6960 and 1.6999 for a continuation towards 1.7094 and 1.7470 as the next upside targets.

Short-term support is seen at 1.6867 and again at 1.6809.
R3: 1.7094
R2: 1.6999
R1: 1.6960
Pivot: 1.6900
S1: 1.6867
S2: 1.6809
S3: 1.6778

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.6790 with stop placed at break-even.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 7, 2018

EUR/JPY
There is recently an upwards bounce in the market – in the context of a downtrend. The upwards bounce is yet to nullify the downtrend, but it would do so as soon as the price goes above the supply zone at 132.50, which would require a strong buying pressure. Right now, the EMA 11 is almost crossing the EMA 56 to the upside, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Once the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, the bias on the market would turn bullish.

There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but the recent rally has become a threat to the extant bearish outlook. Nonetheless, a strong rally is in the offing, as the outlook on EUR pairs remains bullish for this week.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 09, 2018

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as the French Industrial Production m/m, the French Gov Budget Balance, the German Trade Balance, and the German Industrial Production m/m. Meanwhile, the US will also deliver some reports such as the Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, the Unemployment Rate, the Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2369.
Strong Resistance:1.2362.
Original Resistance: 1.2350.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2338.
Target Inner Area: 1.2309.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2280.
Original Support: 1.2268.
Strong Support: 1.2256.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2249.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 22, 2018

NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair is still showing upward momentum after a break-out from a resistance level at 0.7185 (now a key support). Currently, it is trading at levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages while targeting the first upside target at 0.7260 (around the high of March 19). The relative strength index is well directed in the 70s, indicating strong upward momentum for the pair. Upon crossing 0.7260, the next upside target at 0.7280 would come into sight.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7260, 0.7305, and 0.7350.
Support levels: 0.7150, 0.7125, and 0.7100.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 26, 2018

EUR/JPY
The conditions in the market is quite choppy. Although the market is choppy, the bearish trend has been maintained.Price has been going southward since February 5, having lost almost 800 pips since then. Last week, there was a rally attempt in the context of an uptrend, which was halted once the supply zone at 131.50 had been tested.

Further upward movement was effectively prevented. The market shed 250 pips following that, to test the demand zone at 129.00, and closed below the supply zone at 129.50. The expected weakness in EUR, as well as the bearish outlook on the market, may enable the demand zones at 129.00, 128.50, and 128.00 to be tested this week.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, April 02, 2018

When the European market opens, the US will release the Economic Data such as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2372.
Strong Resistance:1.2365.
Original Resistance: 1.2353.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2341.
Target Inner Area: 1.2312.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2283.
Original Support: 1.2271.
Strong Support: 1.2259.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2252.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

RBA leaves rates unchanged, and China is in charge of the US

The Australian dollar managed to strengthen its positions against the US dollar after the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the key interest rate unchanged. However, there are a number of points that indicate a tightening of conditions in the short-term financing markets in US dollars.

According to yesterday's decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, while stating that the rates correspond to the target level of inflation and economic growth. Despite this, a number of commercial banks have resorted to raising the cost of short-term financing, which also led to an increase in mortgage rates.

The RBA also expects further progress in reducing unemployment, as leading indicators show a strong increase in employment. Despite this, the regulator expects that the growth of salaries, most likely, will remain low for some time.

As for economic forecasts, experts in the RBA continue to project faster growth of GDP this year, which in the future will lead to a gradual return of inflation to the target level.

As for the technical picture of the AUD/USD pair, there are still no major changes. The small short-term growth of the Australian dollar is likely to be temporary, as the US-China trade war, which is only gaining momentum, could negatively affect the Australian economy.

Considering short positions in the AUD/USD pair would be best done after a correction to the areas of resistance at 0.7750 and 0.7780, and the breakthrough of current support levels in the area of 0.7640 will lead to another wave of selling in the trading instrument with the output towards new lows of 0.7560 and 0.7500.

On Sunday, it became known that the US and China could not negotiate on trade tariffs, although last week there were clear "glimpses" in the negotiations. The Chinese authorities imposed duties on the import of a number of goods from the United States, claiming retaliatory measures, after the administration of Donald Trump had imposed levies on the supply of steel and aluminum from China. As noted in the report of the Ministry of Finance of China, duties are raised by 25% of the tariff for American pork and a number of other commodity items, as well as 15% of the tariff for fruits and 120 commodities from the US.

As a result of such protectionist measures, investors once again turned their attention to gold, which yesterday rose strongly in price. Many traders are afraid of a more protracted trade war between the US and China, as well as the fact that a number of retaliatory measures with all the ensuing consequences of the European Union. This will necessarily lead to an increase in the costs of manufacturing companies and adversely affect the growth rate of the economy.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Sensation from North Korea

AUD / USD
On Friday, the Australian dollar did not give rise to the speculative sentiment of the European and American traders and was fundamentally declined by 10 points on the general unfavorable background of foreign markets. Oil lost in price slightly more than 2%, iron ore -0.08%, copper -0.7%.

This morning, investors were satisfied with the growth in the construction sector activity from AIG in the March assessment, the growth came in from 56.0 to 57.2 points. The NAB business confidence index will be release tomorrow, as the March forecast showed results of 12 against 9 in February. Also, the stock markets of the APR failed to grow badly today despite the Friday drop in the US market, with the Nikkei 225 + 0.68%, S & P / ASX 200 + 0.37%, and China A50 + 0.26%. The possible optimism is related to Kim Jong-un's statement about the readiness to test the nuclear weapons and to conduct a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The "Australian" currency could possibly grow in the range of 0.7760 / 75.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Gold goes ahead

When investors do not know what to do, they buy gold. Mutual threats of the US and China on the introduction of import duties caused only a temporary decline of stock indices on fears of a slowdown in the world economy due to the trade war. The US administration managed to calm investors, who can not understand how the US dollar will react. According to Morgan Stanley, negotiations between Washington and Beijing, a strong economy, tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed and improvement of the state of foreign trade allow us to rely on the growth of the USD index. Deutsche Bank, on the contrary, is confident of its decline due to a double deficit.

While the foreign exchange market is looking for an answer to the question of how to respond to a trade war, investors are buying up precious metals. ETF stocks continue to increase, and Xetra-Gold, one of the three largest specialized exchange funds, has increased to peak levels since its inception in 2007. This indicates a high demand for the analyzed asset, primarily in Europe.

"Bulls" of XAU/USD particularly do not panic about the potential decline in Indian imports. Bloomberg, referring to its reliable sources in Delhi, who wished to remain anonymous, reported a reduction in shipments to 64.2 tons to that country in March. A year ago, it was about a figure of 121 tons. History shows that if gold flows from East to West ( in ETF), then the chances of getting an uptrend are much higher than the downtrend.

Especially against the background of increasing volatility of precious metals. The 60-day indicator rose to 12.4, the highest for more than a year. In such conditions, one can expect increased activity from central banks in the area of purchases of the analyzed asset for increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Dynamics of gold volatility

If we add to the above, the recent escalation of the conflict around Syria and Iran, the growing likelihood of Russia's response to US economic sanctions and the associated deterioration of global appetite for risk, it becomes clear that the fundamental background contributes to the continuation of the XAU/USD rally.

The return of investors' interest in the single European currency also played a role in the process. Its share in the USD index is 57%. Therefore, the "hawkish" comments made by Ewald Novotny about the completion of QE in 2018 and the increase in the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.2%, as well as the optimism of other ECB representatives regarding the prospects of a slow down in the first quarter of the economy for the currency bloc, returned hopes of a recovery of an upward long-term trend to bulls of the EUR/USD.

The release of data on US inflation for March and the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC can hinder the plans of the fans of the precious metal. Overclocking the CPI and the "hawkish" rhetoric of the Fed will increase the chances of four rate hikes on federal funds in 2018 and will provide short-term support to the dollar.

Technically, breaking through the resistance at $1357 and $1362 per ounce will increase the risks of activating of AB = CD patterns and the realization of their targets by 127.2% and 161.8%.

Gold, daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 16, 2018

EUR/NZD is following the expected path and is correcting. The minimum corrective target at 1.6793 has already been tested, but we expected a little more correction closer to the 1.6835 - 1.6860 area will be seen before lower again towards the ideal target near 1.6620. The test of 1.6620 will ideally complete the corrective decline from 1.7162. That said it's possible that a larger correction is developing and if this is the case, a decline to 1.6220 should be expected before a more firm bottom is in place.

R3: 1.6860
R2: 1.6820
R1: 1.6793
Pivot: 1.6736
S1: 1.6676
S2: 1.6620
S3: 1.6580

Trading recommendation:
We are looking for an EUR-selling opportunity at 1.6845.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 17, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which engulfed the recent bearish pressure with a daily candle yesterday. The volatility in the EURUSD is still quite high and expected to have no definite trend momentum until 1.25 is broken above or 1.21 is broken below. Despite having worse economic reports EUR gained good momentum over USD recently which is expected to push higher in the coming days. Today EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.8 from the previous positive figure of 5.1, Italian Trade Balance report is expected to show an increase to 2.23B which previously was at -0.09B and ZEW Economic Sentiment report is expected to decrease to 7.3 from the previous figure of 13.4. On the other hand, today USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.33M from the previous figure of 1.30M, Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.24M, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have slight decrease to 77.9% from the previous value of 78.1% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.1%. Moreover, today FOMC Member Williams and Quarles is going to speak about the nation's interest rate and monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. As of the current scenario, both currencies in the pair is expected to have mixed economic results today and this week there is no further high impact economic reports or events to push the price into a definite trend but as the EUR is quite stronger in comparison to USD with the market sentiment, further bullish momentum is expected after certain retracement along the way in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2350 which was recently broken below with a daily close showing good evidence of price proceeding lower. As of yesterday, after having a daily close above 1.2350 does signify previous bearish move as a false break which is currently expected to push the price much higher in the coming days with the target towards 1.2450-1.25 price area. As the price remains above 1.2350 area, the further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, April 19, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction and Current Account. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2438.
Strong Resistance:1.2431.
Original Resistance: 1.2419.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2407.
Target Inner Area: 1.2378.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2349.
Original Support: 1.2337.
Strong Support: 1.2325.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2318.

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex