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Gold fell under the crossfire

After the unsuccessful attempt to breakthrough the upper border of the medium-term trading range of $ 1300-1360 per ounce, the gold collapsed downwards on an unfavorable external background. The topic of the trade war in the context of rapid negotiations between Washington and Beijing no longer provides support for safe havens, while the shift in investors' interest in tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve extended a helping hand to the rates of the debt market and the US dollar. Precious metals reacts sensitively to the behavior of these assets: the strengthening of the US currency makes imports in the largest consumer countries of the physical asset more expensive. At the same time, non-yielding gold is not able to adequately compete with treasury bonds in the event of an increase in yield.

Dynamics of the yield of US and gold bonds

The growth of rates in the 10-year American debts above the psychologically important level of 3% to the maximum level since the beginning of 2014 has become a real catastrophe for the "bulls" of XAU/USD. Moreover, increasing the attractiveness of bonds leads to the diversification of investment portfolios in their favor, so the cost of servicing ETF products is even more expensive. But in April, according to Commerzbank, the reserves of specialized funds increased by 53 tons, which is equivalent to all inflows for the first quarter. Uncertainty about the US-China trade conflict, geopolitical problems in the Middle East and the reluctance of the US dollar to strengthen in response to the Fed's "hawkish" rhetoric have inflated the demand for these assets, but at the end of April the external background has radically changed. This can lead to loss of the ETF.

In general, it seems that 2015-2016 has returned, when rumors about the normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed pushed up the USD index. In April, the chances of four federal funds rate increases in 2018 increased from less than 30% to almost 50%, which is one of the main drivers of growth in Treasury yields. The second is the increase in inflation expectations under the influence of the Brent rally to $75 per barrel.

Not the least role in the correction of the USD index is the weakness of the euro on the eve of the meeting of the Governing Council. The ECB is concerned about the impact of the revaluation of the single European currency and trade conflicts on the eurozone economy. The latter lost steam in the first quarter, however, its gradual recovery during the rest of the year will return to the market rumors about the normalization of the ECB monetary policy and will help restore the EUR/USD position. Gold will be able to benefit from this fact due to its high correlation with the US dollar.

Technically there is a retest of the lower border of the upward trading channel. If the "bulls" manage to return gold quotes into it and consolidate above the resistance at $1336 per ounce, the risks of recovery of the upward trend will increase. On the contrary, if the buyers do not succeed, the peak of the precious metal in the direction of targeting by 88.6% in the pattern of the "Shark" is likely to continue. Gold, daily chart

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, May 02, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim GDP q/q, Prelim Flash GDP q/q, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Federal Funds Rate, Crude Oil Inventories, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2050.
Strong Resistance:1.2043.
Original Resistance: 1.2031.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2019.
Target Inner Area: 1.1991.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1963.
Original Support: 1.1951.
Strong Support: 1.1939.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1932.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Pound and the euro continue to fall

Despite good industrial production figures in Germany for March of this year, the European currency continued its decline against the US dollar and a number of other world currencies on Tuesday morning. The speech of the chairman of the Fed was taken by traders with a certain optimism. Although, Powell did not touch on the conditions of monetary policy but instead spoke more about its impact on other developed economies of the world.

According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, industrial production in March 2018 grew by 1.0% compared with February, while economists expected an increase of 0.8%. As stated in the report, the main reason for the growth was the increase in production of capital goods. Compared with March 2017, industrial production in Germany increased by 3.2%.

Good data from Germany, after the disastrous beginning of the year, instilled some optimism in investors, but, as we see on the EURUSD chart, this is not enough.

The morning speech by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, had a positive effect on the quotes of the US dollar. Powell said that despite the Fed's repeated increase in rates since December 2015, financial conditions in the US have become less stringent, while monetary stimulus has had only a relatively limited impact on the flow of capital in emerging economies in recent years. He also noted that the Fed, as much as possible, clearly intends to talk about the prospects of politics in order to avoid unrest in the markets.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the downtrend persists and so far there are no prerequisites for a reversal. The breakdown at the support level of 1.1890 opens up new prospects for updating the lows in the areas of 1.1830 and 1.1790. The main goal now will be the level of the minimum of December 12, 2017 which is the level of 1.1717.

The British pound grew reluctantly but returned to the lower boundary of the side channel, which also indicates the continued downward trend in the trading instrument. Pressure on the pound in the first half of the day could be formed by statements of British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. During the interview, Johnson expressed his dissatisfaction with the plan of the customs agreement, which was proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May and which should enter into force after Brexit.

According to the minister, the variant of the customs agreement contradicts everything that the UK aspired to by agreeing to Brexit and leaving the EU, since the preservation of import duties in favor of the EU will retain control over trade policy and laws.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Weak indicators of GDP growth in the Eurozone put pressure on the euro

The Eurozone's weak economic growth, along with the slowdown in its flagship German economy, has affected the sentiment of traders who are rushing to lock in long positions in the European currency after the recent corrective growth.

According to the Federal Bureau of statistics, German economic growth slowed in the 1st quarter of 2018. As noted in the report, one of the reasons for the slowdown was a series of strikes that swept through Germany. Thus, GDP growth in annual terms was at 1.2% against 2.5% in the 4th quarter of 2017. Economists also predicted a slowdown in the German economy in the 1st quarter.

According to the Bureau of statistics, France's GDP growth for 2017 was revised to 2.2%, from 2%, as previously reported. Good GDP growth was recorded in the 1st quarter in Spain, which partly offset the fall in the overall indicator for the Eurozone.

According to the report of the statistical Agency Eurostat, the growth rate of economic activity slowed. Thus, the Eurozone economy in the 1st quarter of 2018 grew by only 0.4% compared to the previous quarter after an increase of 0.7% in the 4th quarter of last year. These data fully coincided with the preliminary forecast, as well as with the expectations of economists.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bearish scenario continues to work out. The breakthrough of support at 1.1890, from which the euro continued to grow on Friday, could lead to a number of new short positions and a further decline of the euro towards the low of 1.1850 and 1.1820

The British pound did not receive much support after the publication of the report on the labor market, which indicated that from January to March this year, unemployment in the UK remained at its minimum level.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment remained at 4.2 percent, while the number of unemployed in the UK decreased by 46,000 during the reporting period.

Despite this, the pound continues to decline, moving towards the lower border of the side channel, which was formed after the decision of the Bank of England on interest rates last week in the level of 1.3460.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also came out in the first half of the day, which indicated that industrial production in China in April of this year increased by 7.0% compared to the same period last year after an increase of 6.0% in March. Economists had expected production to grow by 6.4 percent.

aRetail sales in China rose only 9.4% in April, following a 10.1% increase in March compared to the same period last year. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in April.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2018

EUR/JPY
There are still mixed signals in the market. The EMA 11 is slightly below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is slightly above the level 50. It may be prudent to stay away from this market until there would be a directional movement in it.

At least, in the short-term, nothing has really changed in this market. The price plummeted on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday, to test the demand zone at 129.50. After that, a rally effort was made, which made price rose by 110 pips, thereby frustrating the bears. Investors may want to wait until there is a directional movement in the market.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Pound returns to politics

Quotes of the GBP/USD slumped to a five-month low as it came under fire on three sides. The lack of a unified position within the conservative party on the basic principles of Brexit has revived political risks, negative statistics on the U.K. continues to reduce the likelihood of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of England in 2018, and, finally, the unrestrained growth of the yield of Treasury bonds pushes up the US dollar. Such an unfavorable background makes the position of the sterling extremely vulnerable, but Forex is good because the situation can be turned upside down in a matter of moments.

Unexpected comments by Theresa May that Britain will still come out of the Customs Union, became a verdict for the pound. A week ago, the market was walking directly opposite rumors, which at that time had some support for the "bulls" on the GBP/USD. Even for a little while. The Prime Minister said that there is no reason for a second referendum on Scotland's independence, although in the North of the United Kingdom there are quite different sentiments. In general, the divide is felt in all politics, not only in the conservative party, which plays against sterling.

The futures market is on the verge of abandoning the idea of raising the REPO rate by 25 bp in 2018. Previously, there was confidence in two acts of monetary tightening, and after the May meeting of the Bank of England, the likelihood of a hike in August were regarded as a fifty-fifty. However, the busy economic calendar for the week to May 25 a priori nominates the pound for the title of the most interesting currency of the five-day period. Bloomberg analysts expect to see April inflation and GDP for the first quarter at the same levels of +2.5% yoy and +0.1% q/q, and also forecast a slowdown in retail sales to a six-month low. At the same time, the BoE in its most recent accompanying documents noted that the second assessment of January-March, in fact, is likely to be the best. If inflation also begins to move away from the target in the direction of 3%, the idea of two acts of monetary tightening in 2018 will rise from the ashes. And if so, then the "bulls" on the GBP/USD after long ordeals will still feel the ground beneath their feet.

Dynamics of the British inflation

The reason for their optimism can be slowed down and finally, the US dollar. Despite the fact that the news of a truce in the trade war between Beijing and Washington in the form of a temporary cancellation of tariffs for $150 billion imports has benefited the yield of Treasury bonds, however, Bloomberg's median forecast of 3.19% at the end of the year is already close, and the stabilization of the indicator will somewhat curb the enthusiasm of bulls in the USD index. In addition, after a continuous 4-week rally, some of them will probably want to lock in the profit.

Technically, a clear implementation of the "Broadening Wedge" pattern brought the pair's quotes beyond the upward trading channel, and the "bears" - to the operational space, and brought them closer to the target by 88.6% in the "Double Top" pattern at arm's length. It corresponds to the level of 1.32.

GBP/USD daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Euro and pound fall due to weak data

Data released in the first half of the day on the economy of the euro area and the UK exerted serious pressure on the euro and the British pound, allowing US dollar buyers to further increase their long positions before the publication of the Federal Reserve's protocols, from which many are waiting for signals in the direction of further interest rates .

In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate in France rose, indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the euro-zone economy in 2018. According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the unemployment rate in France in the first quarter of this year rose to 9.2% from 9.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. This happened because of a sharp slowdown in the economy earlier this year.

The euro collapsed after a report came out indicating that the growth of business activity in the euro area in May this year, contrary to all forecasts of economists and ECB representatives, slowed for the fourth consecutive month.

According to a report by research company IHS Markit, the preliminary composite index of supply managers for the euro area in May 2018 was 54.1 points, while economists expected the index to be at 54.8 points.It is important to note that a value above 50 points still indicates an increase in activity.

This slowdown is not surprising. For example, in Germany, the preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in May fell to 56.8 points against 58.1 points in May, while it was projected at 57.5 points. The index for the service sector fell to 52.1 points in May against 53.0 points in April.

In general, the composite PMI of Germany dropped to 53.1 points in May, while in April of this year, it was at the level of 54.6 points.

France too, failed to please with good results.

The preliminary composite index of supply managers of the PMI of France fell to 54.5 points in May against 56.9 points in April this year.

As noted above, the British pound went to update the monthly lows paired with the US dollar after it became clear that the annual inflation in the UK in April this year dropped to the lowest level in more than a year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose only by 2.4% in April this year compared with the same period last year. In March, growth was at 2.5%.

The main reason for the decline in prices, as noted in the ONS report, is the drop in prices for air tickets.

All the data fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

The reaction of the Bank of England, most likely, will not take long. In the near future, representatives of the Central Bank will make a number of statements, based on today's data, and most likely, they will not like the buyers of the British pound slightly.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for May 28, 2018

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair finally looks to stage a counter trend rally towards the 1.1950/1.2050 levels from here. In the immediate short term outlook, the pair should be looking to take out the 1.1750 levels, which is short term resistance. Then expect a dip towards the 1.1670/80 levels, before the counter trend rally gains further momentum higher. Please note that the 0.382 fibonacci resistance is seen at the 1.1940/50 levels as projected here. Immediate price support is seen at the 1.1500 levels, which should be the next potential target for bears. Now looking into the wave counts, the EUR/USD pair is still progressing into its 3rd wave of a lesser degree and is expected to carve the wave 4, before dropping lower into the wave 5 within the wave (3) as depicted here. Selling on rallies remains a preferred trading strategy for now.

Trading plan:
Aggressive traders may initiate longs around the 1.1675/1.1700 levels going forward; while conservative traders may remain flat for now and look forward to sell again between the 1.1930 and 1.2050 levels respectively.

Fundamental outlook:
There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 30, 2018

The break below the important support at 1.6670 was unexpected and has forced us to shift our long-term count. This new count still favors a bullish outlook, but sees a very complex corrective structure in the wave ii. From the peak of the wave i at 1.7099 in early February, a double corrective combination has been seen. First, a flat correction as the wave W and then a expanded flat as the wave Y to complete the wave ii. Either the wave ii is complete or very close to completing near after a final spike to just below 1.6653.

In the short-term, a break above the minor resistance at 1.6786 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6903 will confirm that the wave ii has completed and a new impulsive rally in the wave iii is developing above 1.7300.

R3: 1.6903
R2: 1.6828
R1: 1.6786
Pivot: 1.6710
S1: 1.6653
S2: 1.6642
S3: 1.6607

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6665 was triggered for a loss of 150 pips. We will be looking for a new buying opportunity, but waiting for a break above 1.6786.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The trade war holds the

The Australian dollar was marked by an impressive spurt due to an increase in global appetite for risk after the release of data on the US labor market, the release of strong statistics on retail sales and optimistic forecasts of the OECD. The authoritative organization believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin to raise the main interest rate at the end of 2018 against the background of acceleration of average wages and inflation. GDP will grow by 2.9% this year and by 3% next year, unemployment will decrease to 5.4% in 2018 and to 5.3% in 2019. OECD believes that the main reasons for strong economic growth in Australia will be favorable the conjuncture of the commodity market and strong external demand.

The optimism of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development is not shared by the futures market, which, on the contrary, has shifted the expectations of the first increase in the cash rate since 2016 from the current 1.5% to the second half of 2019. Along with unfavorable internal factors in the form of sluggish labor and inflation, leaving much to be desired (unlike the main developed countries, unemployment in Australia is far from full employment (5%), investors are apprehensive about the trade wars, the rise in the cost of borrowing in the United States and the Italian political crisis. The shift in the timing of the start of the normalization of the monetary policy of RBA, along with the worsening global appetite for risk, put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Dynamics of MSCI EM and the probability of increasing the cash rate

One of the main problems of the "Aussie" is connected with the growth of the yield of US treasury bonds against the background of expectations of raising the Federal Reserve rate on federal funds to 2.5% within 12 months. This circumstance, coupled with the unwillingness of the RBA to change anything in the field of monetary policy, allows Morgan Stanley to recommend its clients to sell the AUD/USD. The yield differential between the 10-year Australian and American bonds is -15 bp, with an average value of the indicator for the last five years at +68 bpts. Such a situation on the debt market deprives the "Aussie" of support from carry traders who prefer to invest in assets of developing countries.

Additional pressure on the "Aussie" poses the risks of a trade war. The US is going to pause it, then revive the idea of import duties on steel and aluminum due to the intractability of its trading partners from Canada, Mexico and the EU, they openly shout about military actions. Donald Trump on his Twitter account said if you one $800 billion annually, there is no point in fearing a trade war. Under US pressure, China could reduce purchases of goods and services from Australia, which will negatively affect its economy. However, short-term strong statistics on retail sales, GDP and moderate optimism of the RBA may contribute to the correction of AUD/USD.

Technically, the return of the pair's quotations to the boundaries of the long-term upward trading channel will increase the risks of implementing the Bat pattern with a target of 88.6%.

AUD/USD, daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Gold monitors the Fed

Having closed in the red zone for two months in a row, gold begins to rise from the ashes amid increasing rumors that the 6-week US dollar rally has come to an end. The escalation of trade tensions with China, Mexico, and Canada on the part of Washington testifies to the interest of the US administration in the weakness of its own currency. It was such speculation in the market during the height of the trade wars in the 1990s and 2000s that lowered the USD index by 20% and 12%. According to TD Securities, already in the fourth quarter of the precious metal will exceed the mark of $ 1400 per ounce, which was last seen in 2013. The company forecasts an average price of $ 1375 in October-December.

Dynamics of gold and dollar

The gradual decline in political risks in Italy after the announcement of the new Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte that the issue of the republic's exit from the eurozone is not on the agenda, as well as rumors about China's readiness to increase US imports of agricultural and energy goods by $ 70 billion in response to the abolition of tariffs The US reduced the demand for safe haven assets. Does not find gold support and in the physical asset market. According to authoritative sources Bloomberg, who wished to remain anonymous, purchases of precious metals by India in May fell to 77.6 tons (-39% m / m). According to the results of the third month of the spring of 2017, imports amounted to 126.2 tons. In January-May of this year, the figure fell to 289.3 tons (-42% y / y). One of the reasons is the weakness of the rupee, which has depreciated by 5% against the US dollar since early 2018. Dynamics of gold in rupees and dollars

However, if during the rest of the year the world economy synchronizes its growth, including thanks to the restoration of GDP in the eurozone, then the forces of dollar "bulls" will begin to melt before our eyes, which will support both rupee and Indian imports. An indicative example is the second half of 2017, when talks about the normalization of monetary policy by central banks-competitors of the Federal Reserve made from the American currency an outsider G10.

It is possible that the gold could rush up after the euro got rid of political chains already now, however, the offensive movement of the bulls on XAU / USD is holding back the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 13. The futures market gives a 94% probability of raising the federal funds rate to 2%, and precious metals traditionally fall before the historic meetings of the Fed, so that after them, take off thanks to the implementation of the "sell on the rumor, buy on facts" principle. Judging by the actual for 2016-2017 templates, it makes sense to form long positions on gold immediately after the announcement of the verdict of the Federal Reserve.

Technically, the "bulls" leave no attempts to withdraw quotes from the descending channel, take the resistance by $ 1302 per ounce and activate the "Crab" pattern. If they succeed, the chances of achieving a target of 161.8% will increase. It corresponds to $ 1,350. On the contrary, a successful support test at $ 1,288 will open the way for the "bears" to the south as part of the "Expanding Wedge" pattern. Gold, daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trump and the Big Seven: Did not reach an agreement

Trump and the Big Seven: They did not reach an agreement.

On Friday and Saturday, June 8-9, Canada hosted the G-7 summit. Despite the large number of issues on the agenda, the issue is really only one, it's the main one: the new fees that Trump introduces against the US trade partners - against China and Mexico - and against the US allies - Canada and European countries.

The outcome of the first day of the summit is short: they did not agree. There are no joyful media reports about a "breakthrough" in the main issue. All the efforts of the participating countries turned out to somehow sign the final text - it must be signed before the middle of the Saturday, June 9, as Trump announced in advance that he would fly early to Hong Kong for a meeting with the head of North Korea.

All media write that everything could have ended even worse-the refusal of countries to sign the final text - and this is actually a complete collapse of the group of seven.

Let's note an interesting turn of the plot around Russia. Trump, even before the summit, to all the other leaders of the Seven, unexpectedly said that it was necessary to return Russia to the Seven (that is, to the G8, respectively). Trump's proposals were quickly rejected by the leaders of Germany and Britain, but Italy supported it. Very quickly, literally within one or two hours, Putin's spokesman Peskov said that the Kremlin (read - Putin) is not interested in returning to the G8 - "we are more interested in developing other formats." (On this day, Putin met with the leader of China, Xi Jinping).

At the very meeting of the Group of Seven, Trump did not raise the topic of Russia's accession to the Group of Eight. At the same time, it was stated that "all European countries in the Group of Seven are against the return of Russia - until the conflict is settled in Ukraine" (that is, Italy was promptly "persuaded"). Still, we note that Germany and Sweden and Finland agreed to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline - which was opposed by Trump ... (this is not about the Group of Seven, but important for the overall picture).

The result is this: the General Statement of the Group of Seven will most likely be signed - but there is no main text in the text - a decision on the trade dispute over the new Trump duties. At the same time, the EU is preparing an introduction in July of reciprocal duties on goods from the United States. The last attempt to agree - Merkel's proposal to convene a "forum" specifically on the issue of trade conflicts.

How will this affect the markets? I do not think that we will have a noticeable gap at the opening on Monday. But I do not see any reason for rapid growth.

EURUSD - closing day and week.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 19, 2018

Our short-term expectations for EUR/NZD was spot on. First, we saw a minor corrective set-back to 1.6671 (we were looking for 1.6676) before moving higher to 1.6795 (we were looking for a rally into the 1.6768 - 1.6793 area to complete the first impulsive rally of the 1.6567 low. With this five wave rally complete with the test of 1.6795 we will be looking for a correction in wave ii/ into the 1.6652 - 1.6679 area before moving higher in wave iii/ towards at least 1.7047.

R3: 1.6842
R2: 1.6817
R1: 1.6794
Pivot: 1.6758
S1: 1.6728
S2: 1.6695
S3: 1.6671

Trading recommendation:
We will sell EUR here at 1.6772 and place our stop at 1.6845. We will take profit and buy EUR at 1.6680

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis of Gold June 21, 2018

If We look at the Daily Charts from Gold, We can see clearly they moving in Weekly Up Slope Channel, and now they have a retracement to the down side as long as they not breakout and close above the 1304.93 Gold will going down 1236.09 as their Support level.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Trading Plan for Crude Oil for June 26, 2018

Technical outlook:
A medium-term time frame has been presented (4 hours) here, and the most probable wave counts have been labelled here. It looks to be like a bearish resumption trade setup is getting ready in Crude Oil now. Let us understand the wave counts from sub 73.00 levels. The drop from 73.00 to almost 63.50 has been an impulse (unfolding into 5 waves) as labeled here. The entire drop can be labeled as wave (1). The subsequent rally then unfolded into a probable Zigzag (5-3-5) corrective wave structure, labeled as a-b-c here. Also note that the termination of the wave (2) is just at Fibonacci 0.618 resistance, around 69.50 levels, which triggered a sharp reversal yesterday. if this ave structure holds to be good, we should witness a continued drop lower towards 58.00 and 48.00 respectively. Ideally, prices should now stay below 73.00 levels going forward.

Trading plan:
Remain short now, stop above 73.00, target 58.00 at least.

Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for US Consumer confidence numbers to be out today at 10:00 AM EST.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 05, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1718.
Strong Resistance:1.1711.
Original Resistance: 1.1700.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1689.
Target Inner Area: 1.1661.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1633.
Original Support: 1.1622.
Strong Support: 1.1611.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1604.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 09, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence, and German Trade Balance. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Consumer Credit m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1808.
Strong Resistance:1.1801.
Original Resistance: 1.1790.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1779.
Target Inner Area: 1.1751.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1723.
Original Support: 1.1712.
Strong Support: 1.1701.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1694.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Brent disobeyed the president

Interruptions in supplies in Libya, Venezuela, Canada and Norway, Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, and some weakness of the US dollar after the release of the US labor market report for June allowed the bulls for Brent and WTI to continue the rally. If oil can update the May highs, the road in the direction of $ 83-85 per barrel will be opened. According to Tehran, the aim of restraining the price of black gold tweets of Donald Trump, in fact, can bring the North Sea grade to the psychologically important mark of $ 100 per barrel. Who is bigger? Sanford C. Bernstein & Co draws attention to the reduction in oil companies' stocks by an average of 30% since the beginning of 2000 and the increase in urban population in Asia by 1 billion over the next two decades. As a result, the demand for cars and gasoline will rise sharply, which will launch a new super cycle on black gold and allow it to grow to $ 150 per barrel.

The US president demands from his military allies (primarily from Saudi Arabia) to increase production to 2 million bpd, knowing full well that the OPEC decisions on the curtailment of the production of "bulls" for Brent and WTI at the end of June cannot be stopped. The states are exerting pressure on buyers of Iranian oil, and if their plan to reduce exports from this Middle Eastern country translates into life, then the market will take 2.5 million bpd. Tehran is the fifth oil producer in the world with a production volume of 3.8 million bpd. The country's leadership claims that it is ready to sell as much black gold as it can.

The support of Brent and WTI is provided by the factor of production reduction in Libya from 1.28 million bpd in February to the current 527 thousand bpd. According to Capital Economics estimates, the market may lose about 2 million bpd from Iran and 1 million bpd from Venezuela, which will widen the deficit and help develop the "bullish" conjuncture of the black gold market.

At first glance, instead of putting pressure on OPEC, Donald Trump could spur the activity of American producers. For a long time, the oil market was living in tug-of-war conditions between those working on reducing the cartel's output and companies from the States that used price increases to hike their own production and simultaneously hedge the risks. They let the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes grow (+5 to 863 in the week of July 6), and the Energy Information Administration forecasts an increase in production to a record 11.8 million bpd, no problems with the infrastructure have been canceled. For example, in the Perm basin in 2019 will produce 1 million bpd more than its pipes can afford to pump.

Extraction and power of pipelines

The hand to help the "bulls" for Brent and WTI is fixing profit to the US dollar after the publication of disappointing statistics on US unemployment and the average wage. The first indicator increased from 3.8% to 4%, the second did not reach the forecasts of experts from Bloomberg (+ 0.2% vs. + 0.3% m / m)

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $ 79.5 and $ 80.5 per barrel will open the "bulls" along Brent road to the north in the direction of the target for 127.2% and 161.8% for the AB = CD pattern.

Brent, daily chart

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2018

Overview: The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6840 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement). This week (from 9 to 13 July 2018), the pair has dropped from the level of 0.6840 to trade around the 0.6775 level. This level of 0.6840 coincides with the major resistance today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6840/0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6843, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 17, 2018

 

When the European market opens, there's no Economic Data will be released from the Euro Zone, but The US will release the Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 

 

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1767. 

Strong Resistance:1.1760. 

Original Resistance: 1.1749. 

Inner Sell Area: 1.1738. 

Target Inner Area: 1.1710. 

Inner Buy Area: 1.1682. 

Original Support: 1.1671. 

Strong Support: 1.1660. 

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1653.

 

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 19, 2018

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1701.
Strong Resistance:1.1694.
Original Resistance: 1.1683.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1672.
Target Inner Area: 1.1644.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1616.
Original Support: 1.1605.
Strong Support: 1.1594.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1587.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

Mr. Trump Against All

Mr. Trump is against everyone.
In recent weeks:

Trump with a scandal held a meeting with the "Big Seven", refusing to sign under a general statement. His statements to the head of Canada were in fact insults. The meeting of the "Seven" was a series of attacks by Trump on the Allies - Europe (especially Germany), Canada.

Trump took part in the NATO meeting, where he struck everyone with the demand to immediately increase defense spending of the participating countries to 4% - despite the fact that the goal of 2% is quite difficult to achieve. Trump again attacked Germany and Merkel - for low defense spending.

Trump visited Britain and criticized Prime Minister May's plan for a "soft Brexit" plan, on which the May government's survival depends.

Trump makes it clear that he considers the EU to be a harmful, unnecessary structure. He offers France to leave the EU.

Trump is attacking China, raising the stakes in the trade war - on Friday he promised to extend new duties on almost all the goods coming to the US from China - to an amount of $500 billion. This will undoubtedly have a noticeable impact on inflation in the US, businesses related to the United States - not to mention the retaliatory measures on the part of China. A very likely consequence will be a sharp cooling down of China-US political relations - these relations have been very friendly since 1978 (!)

In general, it is the US-China trade war that Trump is unleashing right before our eyes - that is the biggest risk for the world economy, and more than the economy.

Trump is attacking the EU on trade issues - demanding to introduce duties on cars from the EU is a blow to Germany. Paradoxically,
Trump is counting on Europe's support in the trade war against China.

Earlier, Trump withdrew from the "nuclear deal" with Iran - while Europe for the continuation of relations with Iran.

Trump attacked his own special services, saying that he did not trust their investigations into Russia's interference in US elections. Then he refuted his words. And then he said he didn't trust them again.

Finally, Trump attacked the Fed, condemning the decision to raise rates. He accused the US central bank that raising the Fed's rate hinders economic growth in the US and strengthens the dollar, which makes US debt (more than $20 trillion) more expensive and helps US competitors - China and Europe - in trade, increasing the US trade deficit.

Trump made this statement on Thursday, and despite criticism that Trump attacks the independence of the US Central Bank, and his statement that he respects the Fed's independence and personally Powell, the head of the Fed, - on Friday Trump reiterated his criticism.

Perhaps the only person Trump talked about sympathetically in recent weeks is Russian President Putin. Trump, after a meeting in Helsinki with Putin, soon invited the Russian president to the United States for a visit. This, of course, only added fuel to the fire of Trump's criticism.

Trump announced that China and the ECB specifically pursue a policy of undervaluing their currencies against the dollar, thereby damaging the US in trade. The market started talking about "currency wars".

This is it. The only thing that can be said: "The more fronts on which the commander is at war, the less chance he has to win."

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

The euro is stable ahead of the ECB meeting

Eurozone
The key event in the eurozone this week is the ECB meeting on Thursday, July 26. This meeting is considered to be a passing one, the likelihood of any changes is minimal, but surprises are still possible, and they will primarily concern the wording regarding the timing of maintaining current rates.

The ECB directly links the first increase to achieving a consistently high inflation rate, and at the moment this parameter is rather negative – growth is primarily due to rising prices for petroleum products, the root value is about 1%, which is too low to begin the cycle of tightening. At the same time, maintaining a dovish rhetoric is increasingly difficult, as with each new meeting, the spread of returns between dollar and euro assets is increasing, the spread of yields between assets in dollars and euros is growing, and delaying the process can accelerate the migration of capitals from the eurozone.

There is another factor that may push Draghi to take a more hawkish position. The inversion of the yield curve in the United States is approaching, the dynamics are obvious. Three times in recent decades, the inversion preceded a new recession, and if the current trend continues, the new inversion will come in half a year, and there before the recession at hand.

Accordingly, the ECB is in an ambiguous position – it can begin a cycle of tightening just as a new recession is indicated. This paradoxical conclusion from the current situation does not allow the ECB to publicly announce the expected steps, because they can be canceled at any time.

Thus, there are two scenarios for the euro, and both of them are bad, and there is a badly hidden split in the bank's management regarding the future actions of the regulator. Accordingly, the focus is shifted to the press conference of Draghi following the meeting, which may lead to the growth of the euro, since Draghi is unlikely to avoid adding hawkish notes to his position.

Since the ECB meeting is not expected to publish important macroeconomic data (the release of the PMI Markit report is unlikely to be able to take markets out of balance on Wednesday), EUR/USD trading will most likely take place in a range close to current levels. After the meeting, it is possible to consolidate the euro above 1.1790 and try to test 1.1853, but it is unlikely that it will be successful, the dollar in the main currency pair remains favorable.

Britain
The pound is under pressure due to another political crisis that threatens to lead to the resignation of the May government, as well as due to weak economic data. At the same time, the Bank of England meeting is holding it back from falling, with a 70% probability that the key rate will be raised. The GBPUSD will continue to trade in a wide range of 1.3050 / 3190, the probability of an exit for which until the end of the week is low.

Oil
Oil prices again attempt to grow after Saudi Arabia has lowered its tone regarding output growth under pressure from a number of OPEC countries and the lack of real growth in demand. The threat of "excess" oil entering the market has decreased, which led to the stabilization of prices. Brent traded on Tuesday above $73 per barrel, by the end of the week can rise above 74. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 27, 2018

EUR/NZD is a break above the descending channel resistance-line near 1.7173 indicating that red wave ii completed with the test of 1.7130 and red wave iii towards 1.7510 now is developing.

Short-term, we would like to see a break above resistance at 1.7207 too, as confirmation that red wave iii is in motion for the next impulsive rally.

Support is now seen at 1.7162 and again at 1.7130. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7207.

R3: 1.7305
R2: 1.7268
R1: 1.7207
Pivot: 1.7184
S1: 1.7162 S2: 1.7130
S3: 1.7116

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, you should buy here at 1.7180 or upon a break above 1.7207 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

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