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Charot FXMart · Senior Member

ForexMart's Forex News

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

August 26. Macroeconomic events of the day | August 26

On Friday, all the attention of the markets is focused on the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. It is expected that the regulator will confirm its intention to curb inflation, but will not announce the details of its next steps. Many expect an interest rate increase of another 0.75 percentage points in September, while others expect a smaller increase, by half a point.

Powell's speech will take place after the publication of a block of economic data, including on the PCE index, as well as on the expenses and incomes of Americans.

PCE Index

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), the Fed's most preferred inflation indicator, will be published at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the underlying PCE to increase by 4.7% compared to last year and by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

Expenses and incomes of Americans

At the same time (12:30), statistics on personal expenses and incomes of Americans will be published. Personal expenses are projected to grow by 0.4% and personal income by 0.6%.

It is noted that middle- and low-income households feel disadvantaged due to rising prices for all basic goods, so they are forced to reduce their expenses. At the same time, retailers are lowering prices to get rid of inventory in preparation for the holiday season.

Powell's performance at Jackson Hole

Despite general expectations, the speech of the head of the Fed is unlikely to bring any specifics to the market. Moreover, before the regulator announces its next decision on the rate, several more important economic data will be published, including inflation and the employment report.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

August 29. Powell's speech provoked the growth of the dollar

On Monday, the US dollar reached a 20-year high against major currency competitors after the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. The dollar index peaked at 109.48 points today.

In particular, Asian currencies fell: the Chinese yuan reached a new 2-year low of $6,9321, and the Japanese yen fell to 138.88 against the dollar. The Australian dollar fell to $0.6858, and the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.6109. Paired with the European currency, the dollar rose to $0.9944.

The head of the US regulator said that the Fed does not plan to make «dovish» changes to its rhetoric and intends to further raise the base rate to combat rampant inflation. Powell also warned that the growth of the US economy could be undermined by a rate hike, as households and businesses will inevitably face a number of problems before consumer price growth can be contained.

After the politician's speech, an increasing number of analysts began to predict a rate hike at the September meeting by 75 basis points. The rate is expected to exceed 3% by the end of the year.

Now all the attention of the markets is focused on Friday's report on employment in the United States (Non-Farm Payrolls). A strong report on the labor market may give the Fed additional opportunities to maintain the current pace of monetary policy tightening.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

August 30. Oil prices are recovering moderately after yesterday's fall

World oil prices are recovering weakly on Tuesday after falling below the level of $100 per barrel. A day earlier, Brent was trading at $103.25 per barrel.

The possible prospects for a reduction in oil supply and a decrease in demand in the markets led to an increase in prices yesterday. Investors' fears intensified after the statement by the Saudi Energy Minister that OPEC may cut production.

At the same time, expectations of an increase in demand appeared after the statement of the famous entrepreneur Elon Musk that humanity may soon need more oil and gas, since without fossil energy carriers «civilization will collapse.»

In addition, the situation in Libya affects the dynamics of the oil market. Over the weekend, clashes between two armed groups took place in Tripoli, as a result of which more than 30 people were killed. This has raised fears that Libya is waiting for another full-scale conflict, as a result of which oil supplies to the world market will be reduced.

Meanwhile, the volume of production in the country remains at the same level of 1.2 million barrels per day, as reported by the state-owned Libyan oil company National Oil Corp.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

August 31. Inflation in the eurozone in August reached a record 9.1%

According to the Statistical Office of the European Union, consumer prices in the eurozone increased by 9.1% in annual terms in August. In July, the price increase was 8.9%, so inflation accelerated again and updated the maximum since the beginning of calculations.

The fresh indicator exceeded the forecasts of analysts who expected less significant growth – by 9%. Inflation exceeds the European Central Bank's target of 2% by more than four times.

The CPI index (consumer prices excluding food and energy) in August increased by 4.3% year-on-year compared with 4% in July.

Energy resources increased in price by 38.3% compared to August last year, but the growth rate slowed down slightly compared to the rise of 39.6% a month earlier. Food, alcohol and tobacco rose by 10.6% (by 9.8% in July), industrial goods – by 5% (by 4.5%), services – by 3.8% (by 3.7%).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.5% in August. In July, this indicator increased by 0.1%.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 5. The pound has collapsed to its lowest since 1985

On Monday, the British pound collapsed to its lowest since 1985. At the moment, the exchange rate of the GBP/USD currency pair fell to the level of $ 1.1444, losing 0.55%.

The main pressure on the pound sterling is exerted by the current strengthening of the US dollar, as well as the economic situation in the UK itself. Analysts fear that due to the energy crisis in the country, many households will not be able to pay bills in winter.

In addition, doubts about the ability of the Bank of England to cope with record inflation are another factor for the weakening of the British currency. Experts expect that inflation in the UK will reach 22% next year due to an increase in the cost of energy resources, which could lead to a fall in the economy by 3.4%.

Additional pressure on the pound is exerted by uncertainty about the economic policy of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss. Today it became known that Truss, the British Foreign Minister, was elected head of the Conservative Party and prime Minister of the country. Truss scored 81.3 thousand votes, thus overtaking ex-Finance Minister Rishi Sunak, for whom 60.4 thousand people voted.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 6. The pound is growing on the promises of the new British Prime Minister

The British pound is rising on Tuesday after the publication of more detailed information about how Liz Truss, who became the new prime minister of Britain, intends to deal with the energy crisis in the country.

It is reported that in October, electricity and heating tariffs for households were supposed to be increased by 80%, but Truss promised that she was going to freeze tariffs for this winter. And this may cost the country's budget more than the employment support program during the pandemic.

As a result, the British pound managed to move away from the lows of 1985, which the currency approached during yesterday's trading ($ 1.1444 per 1 pound). The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is $1,1609. At the same time, analysts note that the pound continues to remain near the lows for 2.5 years amid concerns about the price that the UK will have to pay for the support of the population.

It is worth noting that the country's public debt has already grown to almost 100% of GDP from 80% before the pandemic. In general, during the pandemic, sterling declined against the US dollar by 15%, the annual inflation rate exceeded 10%, and economic growth almost stopped.

During her election campaign, Truss hinted at lower taxes, which led to a decline in UK government bonds. In August, the drop in their prices was the deepest in several decades, because investors feared a balance of payments crisis.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 7. Macroeconomic events of the day | September 7

The US stock market is declining on Wednesday after the end of the Labor Day holiday weekend. Investors are waiting for new economic data and comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve System this week.

The next Fed meeting will take place only at the end of the month, but some Fed officials are expected to speak this week, including Jerome Powell. The Fed's Beige Book (economic summaries of regional banks) will be published today.

Market participants expect that the US regulator will continue to raise the rate by another 0.75 percentage points to combat high inflation.

What should I pay attention to today:

The Fed's beige book.

The periodic report of 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve will give an idea of what is happening in manufacturing, services and other business sectors, as well as consumer behavior. The beige book will be published at 18:00 GMT.

The decision of the Bank of Canada on the rate

Another interesting event of the day will be the meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada. The regulator is expected to raise the refinancing rate from 2.5% to 3.25%. Such a sharp increase could lead to a steady increase in the Canadian dollar.

Eurozone GDP

Gross domestic product in the eurozone increased by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2022, which exceeded the growth of 0.6% according to the second estimate and was the highest growth rate in three quarters. Despite the current growth, the energy crisis in Europe continues to cause alarm, as the region is cut off from a key natural gas pipeline just a few weeks before the onset of cold weather.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 8. Truss will freeze gas and electricity bills for two years

The new British Prime Minister Liz Truss has revealed the details of her energy plan: from October 1 and for two years, energy prices will be frozen. Now the average annual gas and electricity bill will not exceed 2,500 pounds.

The envisaged measures will cost the UK budget about 150 billion pounds ($172 billion). At the same time, Trass has not yet announced exactly how this assistance program will be funded.

Given that the new Prime Minister is actively in favor of reducing taxes on the population and has repeatedly spoken out against the introduction of a tax on excess profits of companies, it can be assumed that covering the difference between real energy prices and the amount that will be charged to citizens will be at the expense of government loans. In the future, they will be paid over the next 10-20 years by adding to consumers' energy bills.

According to Truss, the new measures will save each household a thousand pounds. The country already has support measures in the form of a discount on energy bills in the amount of 400 pounds this winter, which was announced under the previous British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 9. The London Stock Exchange stopped trading after the death of Elizabeth II

Last night, the London Stock Exchange stopped trading after the news of the death of Queen Elizabeth II appeared. Trading should recover on September 9. In addition, the country's parliament, the government, as well as the legislative bodies of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have also suspended their work.

Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain has died at the age of 96, according to Buckingham Palace. Elizabeth became Queen in 1952, and this year she celebrated the 70th anniversary of her reign, the longest in the history of the country.

The new king of the country was the son of Elizabeth II, 74-year-old Prince Charles. The new British monarch will rule under the name Charles III.

The Bank of England announced that banknotes with the image of Elizabeth II will remain legal tender.

The British pound reacted to the news of the Queen's death by rising to the level of 1.1609. A little earlier, on the news about the deterioration of the Queen's physical condition, the British FTSE 100 index also started to grow, to the level of 7,382.60.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 12. Economic events of the day | Great Britain

Monday started with a block of data from the UK – on the country's GDP and industrial production.

According to the country's national bureau of Statistics, the British economy grew by 0.2% in July, while analysts had forecast growth of 0.4%. It is noted that such a decrease was the result of a reduction in energy generation as a result of tariff increases in the country. In June, the UK economy shrank by 0.6%.

The volume of industrial production in July decreased by 0.3% compared to June. Analysts believed that the indicator would increase by 0.4%. In annual terms, industrial production increased by 1.1%, while experts expected an increase of 1.9%.

In June, industrial production decreased by 0.9% on a monthly basis, and increased by 2.4% on an annual basis.

In August, the Bank of England predicted that a recession would begin in the British economy at the end of this year, which would last until the beginning of 2024. Last week, the new Prime Minister of Great Britain, Liz Truss, announced a massive program of support for the population, promising to limit electricity and heating tariffs. It is reported that this program will cost the country's budget 100 billion pounds or more, which will further worsen its condition.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 13. Gold declines after the release of US inflation data

The price of gold fell sharply on Tuesday after the publication of inflation statistics in the United States. Annual inflation in the country decreased to 8.3% in August after 8.5% in July. Analysts predicted an even bigger decline – up to 8.1%. The fact that the current indicator fell short of forecasts caused expectations of an even tougher approach of the US Federal Reserve System to monetary policy.

The daily minimum price for December gold futures was $1,706.95; the asset collapsed from the level of $1,742.75 per ounce. December silver futures are down 1.05% to $19.652 per ounce.

Analysts note that additional tightening of monetary policy in the United States will be positive for the dollar and the yield of the US government debt and negative, respectively, for commodities and assets used as a «safe haven». According to experts, 82% of analysts already expect the Fed's discount rate to increase by 0.75 percentage points, to 3-3.25% per annum.

Analysts are also confident that a rate hike in September is already a settled issue. Moreover, in November, the rate cut will most likely not happen.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 14. Oil declines on U.S. inventory data

World oil prices are declining on Wednesday morning amid a significant increase in its reserves in the United States.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), commercial oil reserves in the country unexpectedly jumped by 6 million barrels. At the same time, analysts expected a decrease of 200 thousand.

The publication of the IEA report and statistics from the Ministry of Energy of the country is expected this evening. If the official report confirms the growth of reserves, oil quotes will continue their decline.

On Wednesday morning, Brent quotes are near the level of $92.50 per barrel, having declined from the area of $93.80. The cost of North American WTI oil hovers at $87 per barrel.

In addition to the data on reserves, the upcoming speech by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who is going to present a number of proposals to contain the oil crisis in her speech to the European Parliament, may have an impact on the dynamics of the market.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 15. Ethereum has completed a long-awaited upgrade to its system

Ethereum has completed an important long-awaited upgrade to its system – The Merge. It involves the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This means that now the security of the blockchain will be provided not by miners, but by validators – users who have deposited and blocked their share of coins (stacking).

The main purpose of the update is to reduce the problems associated with the growth of the users number. The hard fork is aimed at increasing the speed, efficiency and scalability of the cryptocurrency network so that it can process more transactions and provide a higher level of protection.

The Merge has been in preparation for six years, and many consider it an important milestone in the history of cryptocurrency due to the potential material and ideological consequences. The update should show that a decentralized and public network can work in the most energy efficient way.

In addition, the transition to a new environmentally friendly Proof-of-Stake model will lead to a reduction in the impact on the environment. The new protocol will consume 99.95% less energy than the current mining model. Moreover, the transition of Ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake concept does not involve the use of video cards for mining. And this will lead to a further reduction in prices for graphics accelerators.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 19. Bitcoin is aiming for 2020 lows

During Monday's trading, the bitcoin exchange rate dropped to $18,313 for the first time since the end of 2020. Pressure on the cryptocurrency is exerted by investors' withdrawal from risks before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System scheduled for Wednesday.

Most analysts expect that the US regulator will raise the base interest rate by 75 basis points for the third time in a row, or even by 100 bp at once.

The current quote of the BTC/USD pair is $18,756.90. Since the beginning of this year, bitcoin has fallen in price by 60% and is currently trading at the level of December 2020.

In the current conditions, risk appetite remains extremely weak, and the entire crypto market is showing a decline following the fall of stock markets. Additional pressure on the market is being exerted by signals that the administration of US President Joe Biden plans to tighten regulation of the cryptocurrency industry.

It's not just bitcoin that is falling today. The cost of the second most popular cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is also declining and is at its lowest level since July. The current price of ether is $1,280. Last week, an update of the cryptocurrency software, called The Merge, was carried out on the Ethereum network. This update has transferred the ether blockchain to a new algorithm, which will dramatically reduce electricity consumption during mining.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 22. The Bank of England raised the rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%

Following the results of the September meeting, the Bank of England decided to raise the base interest rate from 1.75% to 2.25% per annum. This decision completely coincided with analysts' expectations.

Thus, the rate in the UK has reached its maximum since 2008. Experts note that the rate was raised following the results of the seventh meeting in a row, and the second meeting in a row the increase was 50 basis points.

All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously for the rate increase. Moreover, five were in favor of a 50 bps rise, three were in favor of a 75 bps increase, and one voted for a 25 bps increase.

In addition, the leadership of the British regulator voted to begin reducing the volume of government bonds on the balance sheet of the central bank. Now the volume of government bonds at the disposal of the Bank of England will be reduced by 80 billion pounds over the next 12 months and will reach 758 billion pounds.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 26. The yield of 10-year British government securities rose to the highest since 2008

Yields of British government securities are rising at the beginning of a new trading week: on Monday, the yield of ten-year bonds rose to 4.246% compared with 3.827% at the close of the market on September 23, which was the highest since 2008. The yield on two-year government securities rose to 4.418% from 3.911%.

The growth is supported by expectations that the Bank of England will have to sharply raise the rate, as the large tax incentives announced by the government last week will inevitably lead to a further increase in inflation.

On September 23, British Finance Minister Quasi Kwarteng announced a large-scale tax cut that will affect individuals and legal entities. It is expected that these measures will increase the budget deficit in the current financial year by more than 70 billion pounds. At the same time, the minister clarified that he does not exclude further tax breaks.

The stimulus measures of the new UK government will require an increase in the issuance of government bonds, which is one of the factors pushing down their value.

Market participants expect the Bank of England to raise the base rate by 100 basis points at the November meeting. However, there is an opinion that the Central Bank may raise the rate until November, in an attempt to contain the fall in the national currency. An increase in interest rates may exacerbate difficulties in the economy, since the tightening of monetary policy reduces the disposable incomes of the population and leads to an increase in the cost of mortgages.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

September 27. Iraq: oil may rise to $150 per barrel

The price of oil on the world market may reach $150 per barrel in the coming months. This was stated by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

And there are significant risks here: if oil prices rise in winter, it will hit the economies of countries that do not produce oil. In addition to the seasonal factor of rising prices for hydrocarbons, the Iranian politician noted the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the cost of oil.

On Tuesday, the commodity asset is steadily growing after yesterday's fall to the level of $82.46: the current Brent quote is $85.54 per barrel. The driver of growth is concerns due to a reduction in supply on the market.

Also, traders continue to monitor the gathering strength of Hurricane Jan in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron Corp has already announced the suspension of the operation of two production platforms, the total production volume of which is about 120 thousand barrels per day. British BP also intends to close two platforms in the region, the production volumes at each of which exceed 100 thousand barrels per day.

In addition, the decision of the OPEC+ countries to reduce the volume of oil production, as previously repeatedly stated by representatives of the alliance, can support oil prices. In particular, in order to maintain prices at $90 per barrel, OPEC will need to reduce production by 1 million b/d. In the meantime, the organization can reduce production by at least 500 thousand b/s.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 3. The pound rose sharply after the British authorities rejected the budget plan

The pound jumped sharply on Monday after the British government announced the cancellation of a plan to reduce taxes for the rich, which was a shock to the market and scared investors.

British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said today that the government is ready to abandon the plan to abolish the 45% maximum income tax rate. Against this background, the pound reached $ 1.1263 in a pair with the US dollar.

Last Monday, the British currency fell to a record low of 1.0356. Investors were scared by the fact that tax cuts would spur inflation and lead to an even faster increase in the interest rate. And this will undermine the already struggling UK economy.

Several members of the ruling Conservative Party also opposed the tax reduction program. Citizens themselves also spoke out against it, judging by the results of public opinion polls.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund also sharply criticized the new fiscal package, which includes the rejection of the planned increase in the social security tax rate and a reduction in the tax on the purchase of real estate below 250 thousand pounds. Representatives of the IMF said that this would contradict the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 4. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the base rate by only 25 bps

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly reduced the pace of tightening its monetary policy, noting a deterioration in the global economic outlook. This time, the regulator raised the interest rate by only 25 basis points, to 2.6%. Most analysts expected an increase of 50 bps.

Recall that the RBA raised the rate by 50 bps in June, July, August and September in an attempt to slow down inflation, which may peak by the end of 2022 at about 8%.

«One of the sources of uncertainty is the prospects for the global economy, which have worsened recently,» said the head of the Australian Central Bank, Philip Lowe.

In addition, the RBA fears that the tightening of financial conditions will have negative consequences for consumer budgets and spending.

Earlier, the Australian central bank has already stated that it intends to slow down the pace of rate hikes at some point, as it expects a rapid weakening of inflation in 2023 along with falling commodity prices.

The Australian dollar reacted with a decline to the news about the rate: the AUD/USD pair fell to $0.6470 during trading on Tuesday, compared with $0.6514 at the close of the previous session.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 6. Oil rose above the level of $94 per barrel

Oil quotes on Thursday remain in the area of local highs reached after the announcement of the results of yesterday's meeting of OPEC+ ministers.

The organization decided to reduce quotas for oil production in November by 2 million b/s. Analysts note that this decision signals that Saudi Arabia and the alliance as a whole are striving to stabilize and support oil markets.

At the same time, it is noted that the actual decline in production will be less, since at the moment OPEC+ lags behind the maximum permitted production levels by about 3.6 million b/s. About 1.2 million b/d of the total under–production is accounted for by OPEC countries, and 2.4 million – by OPEC+ countries.

Yesterday, after the end of the ministerial meeting, Brent jumped to the level of $93.90 per barrel. Today, the asset continued to grow and reached $94.44 per barrel. The last time such price values were observed was in mid-September.

Additional support for the oil market was provided by data on fuel reserves in the United States. According to the Ministry of Energy of the country, commercial oil reserves decreased by 1.36 million barrels last week, while analysts predicted an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks decreased by 4.73 million barrels, distillate stocks – by 3.44 million barrels. Analysts expected a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and a drop in distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.

October 5. The New Zealand central bank raised its key rate to a seven-year high

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 3.5%. The regulator also announced its readiness to further raise the rate in an attempt to contain stubbornly high inflation.

The central bank's decision coincided with analysts' forecasts. The current increase was the eighth since the beginning of the monetary policy tightening cycle, which started a year ago. RBNZ accelerated the step from 25 to 50 points in April and has now brought the rate level to the cyclical highs of 2014-2015.

It also became known that the monetary policy committee discussed an increase even by 75 bps, but eventually stopped at half a point.

«It remains appropriate to continue tightening monetary policy at the same pace to maintain price stability and ensure maximum employment,» said the representative of the regulator.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 10. Gold is trading below $1700 amid a strengthening dollar

At the beginning of the new trading week, the price of gold shows a steady decline: on Monday, the precious metal quotes fell below the psychological level of $ 1,700. The current price of gold is $1,673 per troy ounce.

Gold prices have been declining for the fourth consecutive session on the back of the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by strong data on the labor market. Friday's Non-Farm payrolls report showed that unemployment in September fell to 3.5% from August's level of 3.7%, although markets did not expect a change in the indicator. The number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by 263 thousand, while analysts predicted an indicator of 250 thousand.

Such macro statistics reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy, which traditionally supports the dollar and restrains the price of gold.

The dollar index reached a more than 7-day peak (113.225), making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Silver for December delivery lost 3.4% in price and fell to $19,538. Palladium prices fell to $2,216 per ounce, platinum fell to $899.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 17. The EM government bond market faces a crisis

Analysts suggest that the authorities of countries with developing economies that have been actively borrowing on debt markets during a period of low rates are now facing an increase in debt refinancing costs. Experts fear that some Emerging markets may face a debt crisis similar to the situation in Asia in the 1990-s.

In the current period, the yield of government bonds of a third of the countries included in the EM Sovereign Dollar Debt Index exceeds the yield of US Treasuries by more than 10 percentage points. And this is already a generally accepted indicator of stress in the debt market. For example, the yield of government bonds of Kenya and Egypt exceeds the yield of U.S. government bonds by more than 10 pp, Argentina and Ghana – by more than 20 pp.

Earlier this week, the Finance Minister of Nigeria announced the attempts of the authorities to agree on the extension of the maturity of a number of bonds, stressing that we are not talking about Eurobonds. Some other EM countries intend to default and restructure their debt, as the growing debt burden leads to an outflow of investments and slows down the growth of economies.

A few years ago, many developing countries began to place bonds in local currencies en masse in an attempt to protect themselves from the risks associated with an increase in the cost of debt servicing in the event of a fall in the national currency.

However, over time, they have again increased activity in foreign capital markets against the background of extremely low interest rates in the United States and the eurozone. And in 2020, the volume of placements by developing countries of government bonds in dollars and euros reached a historic high and amounted to $747 billion.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 18. Oil quotes are stuck in the range of $91-93 per barrel

For several days now, the oil market has been showing increased volatility in the range of $91-93 per barrel. The current price of Brent crude oil is $92.10 (yesterday's low of $91.40). North American WTI oil is trading near the level of $85.30 per barrel (yesterday's low is $84.30).

Today, the oil market is on the rise against the background of a local weakening of the US dollar, which is getting cheaper due to increased investor appetite for risk. At the same time, concerns about a potential recession in the global economy limit the growth of oil prices.

In addition, the downward pressure on oil prices continues to be exerted by concerns about the tightening of monetary policy of many major central banks of the world, aimed at curbing inflation. At the same time, China is expected to maintain a soft monetary policy to support the economy in the face of restrictions related to the coronavirus.

The market dynamics is also affected by the decision of OPEC+ to reduce oil production. As you know, in early October, the organization agreed to reduce production quotas by 2 million barrels per day, starting in November.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 19. Oil started to rise after falling the day before

On Wednesday afternoon, oil prices accelerated their growth after falling to lows for more than 2 weeks the day before. This drop was caused by the news that the US presidential administration intends to sell some of the oil from the country's strategic reserves (15 million barrels) in response to OPEC+ decision to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November.

The current price of Brent oil is $91.27 per barrel. WTI oil rose to $84.19 per barrel. The day before, Brent fell by 1.7%, and the price of WTI fell by 3.1%.

However, analysts believe that the current local gowth is a temporary phenomenon. The oil market will continue to be under pressure while the US sells off its reserves. It is expected that the American president may make a similar decision repeatedly this winter.

The release of resources is aimed at curbing the rise in fuel prices at gas stations in the United States and for oil in the world as a whole. In total, it is planned to release 180 million barrels of «black gold». At the moment, the US strategic oil reserve is at the lowest level since 1984, which is about 400 million barrels of oil.

At the same time, the potential for growth remains in the oil market amid traders' concern about the supply. The fact is that the EU embargo on energy supplies from Russia comes into force in December, and the G7 countries continue to work on the ceiling of prices for Russian oil. These factors will eventually be able to support oil prices at sufficiently high levels.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 20. France, Spain and Portugal will create Green Energy Corridor

French President Emmanuel Macron said at the EU summit in Brussels that France, Spain and Portugal intend to create a «green corridor» that will replace the MidCat gas pipeline and open access to the energy market of the European Union to the countries of the Iberian Peninsula.

The three countries intend to abandon the MidCat project and start working together to create a new gas pipeline that will be able to bring the Iberian peninsula out of isolation and create a green energy corridor between Portugal and Spain. It is also planned that the new gas pipeline will run through France to the rest of Europe.

Macron stressed that the aim of the project is to unite the energy networks of the EU countries and the soonest transition to green energy.

The new «green hydrogen pipeline» will also be able to transport gas needed by the European energy market due to the ongoing energy crisis.

The next meeting of the heads of state will take place on December 8 and 9 in Alicante at the Euromed summit, which will unite 9 Mediterranean EU states. There, France, Spain and Portugal will discuss the timing, investments, cost allocation and the amount of economic resources that will have to be used when creating a new project.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

October 24. The yuan fell to the minimum of the global financial crisis of 2008

On Friday, the Chinese yuan paired with the US dollar collapsed to its lowest level since the global financial crisis of 2008 – the level of 7.2515, despite attempts by state-owned banks to stabilize the market. As you know, the country's state banks sold the dollar on the continental foreign exchange market to prevent a further fall in the yuan.

At the end of the week, the USD/CNY pair strengthened by 0.78%, as the growing dollar continues to push down the currencies of developing countries. In total, the currency pair has grown by 12.3% since the beginning of the year.

Analysts note that the decline of the yuan may continue against the background of the general strengthening of the US currency. Pressure on the yuan is also exerted by a significant difference between the monetary policies of the central banks of both countries: the United States shows no signs of abandoning tough rhetoric regarding rates, while the Chinese authorities are trying to support their economy with the help of soft monetary policy.

It is also worth noting that in an attempt to maintain the stability of its currency during the Communist Party Congress, the Chinese authorities continue to set a higher than expected average yuan exchange rate. Since the opening of the market, the People's Bank of China has set the average dollar-yuan exchange rate at 7.1186 against 7.1188 on Thursday.

Analysts clarify that the high fixing, relative to which the yuan can deviate by no more than 2% up or down, limits the potential for a decline in the Chinese currency. At the average rate on Friday, the range of fluctuations of the USD/CNY pair is 6.9762–7.2610, and today it has already come close to the upper limit of this range.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

Crypto market scores gains. Experts foresee bullish rally

Early on Wednesday, digital gold edged higher. At the moment of writing, BTC is seen hovering at $20,627.

Early on Wednesday, digital gold edged higher. At the moment of writing, BTC is seen hovering at $20,627.

According to CoinMarketCap, a website tracking the price of digital assets, bitcoin hovered between $20,348 and $19,261 yesterday. Overall, the coin added 5% on Tuesday.

This month, the flagship cryptocurrency used to consolidate in the $18,500–$20,300 range. However, in recent days experts noticed the potential formation of double support in the crypto market. Should bitcoin break through the mark of $20,300 and extend growth, along with noticeable trading volumes, this would be a clear bullish signal for BTC, analysts suggest.

Altcoin market

Ethereum, bitcoin's main rival, went up earlier today as well. At the moment of writing, ETH is seen trading at $1,485.

As for the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, all coins, except for XPR, traded in the green zone yesterday, with ether leading the way (+10.66%).

Last week, ETH was also the best performer among the 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, gaining 13.65%. Meanwhile, XRP, which lost 0.42%, was the list's worst performer.

This week, all the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are scoring gains. At the same time, the former bearish resistance turned into important support for them. In light of those facts, many analysts forecast a bullish rally for popular coins in the crypto market in the next four months.

According to the world's largest virtual asset data aggregator, CoinGecko, over the past 24 hours, Aptos showed the worst performance, losing 4.98%, while the Toncoin coin showed the best results, gaining 23.10%, among the top 100 digital assets by market capitalization.

Last week, Axie Infinity (-16.19%) was the worst performer among the top 100 strongest digital assets, while Toncoin (+43.98%) showed the best performance.

Based on the CoinGecko data, the total crypto market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion on Wednesday morning. Yesterday, it grew by about 5%.

Since last November, when the daily crypto market capitalization was above $3 trillion a day ($3.08 trillion), it has more than tripled.

At the same time, the total trading volume of virtual coins over the past 24 hours reached $77.3 billion, with BTC (38.1%) and ETH (17.6%) seen as the main contributors.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

De-dollarization or de-eurozation? Analysts consider both scenarios possible

Analysts have been discussing the possible ditch of the US dollar in foreign settlements for a long time. However, now, they do not exclude a similar scenario for the euro. Analysts are mulling over what could lead to such outcomes. They fear that in the near future the European currency will face the same challenges as the Us dollar. Currently, many countries are trying to replace the US dollar in mutual settlements.

Analysts pinpoint that the euro has more disadvantages than advantages. Settlements in the euro and its support are getting more expensive. According to the Eurobarometer, the euro is popular with 60% of the population. However, now many EU citizens are skeptical about the future of the euro. Some economists reckon that some EU states may leave the eurozone and ditch the euro.

Earlier, economists suggested a possible replacement of the US currency by many countries. However, the euro is now facing such a risk as well. De-eurozation looks quite feasible. However, the situation in the global financial market is unlikely to change in the near future, economists believe.

Currently, the authorities of many countries are trying to diversify their foreign exchange reserves to reduce dependence on the greenback. However, a sharp decline in the dollar share of international reserves looks unlikely as roughly 40% of the world's transactions are done in dollars.

The use of national currencies in international settlements spurs their demand and reduces dependence on the Fed's monetary policy. At the same time, the current geopolitical turmoil is fueling a rally of the US dollar as many countries prefer to keep the US currency in their reserves.

At the start of the week, the euro was trading almost at the same levels. On October 31, the EUR/USD pair was fluctuating near 0.9952, slightly below the previous pivot level of 0.9963.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the euro area's important macroeconomic report, namely GDP for the third quarter of 2022. According to preliminary estimates, from July to September, the economy declined slightly to 2.1%. In the second quarter of 2022, this figure totaled 4.1%.

The greenback has been rising for some time thanks to the Fed's hawkish stance. On November 2, the Bank of England and the Fed will hold their meetings. The Fed is widely expected to raise the key rate by 75 basis points to the range of 3.75-4%.

The Fed's key rate decision may significantly impact market sentiment. Some analysts believe that the regulator could switch to less aggressive tightening despite a 75 basis point rate hike. However, other analysts are certain that the regulator will hike the rate by 75 basis points at the next meeting scheduled for December 14.

At the February meeting in 2023, the watchdog is expected to increase the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. Analysts suppose that three will be more 25 basis point rate increases next year. Such a scenario is bearish for the US dollar. The euro is also unable to regain long-term rise. Thus, it is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair with a long-term target level above 1.0500.

Many economists are afraid that sentiment will become more bearish on the US currency. Last week, large traders initiated a sell-off of the greenback. As a result, the number of short positions during the week increased by 21%. If there are no positive fundamental favors, the greenback may drop lower.

Nevertheless, the US dollar remains the most popular currency, with close to 90% of all currency trades having the dollar as one leg of the transaction. It has been rallying for some time amid the Fed's aggressive tightening. In the last few months, the US dollar has reached multi-year highs against the euro, the pound sterling, the yen, and the yuan. It also took advantage of a recession in the eurozone as investors got rid of the euro in favor of the US dollar.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November FOMC meeting: what to expect and how to act

Today, what many are expecting will not happen: it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will announce a change in the future course of its policy, so it is possible that we may repeat the summer scenario, when everyone was about to expect one thing from the FOMC, but everything turned out completely otherwise. Let's figure out what to expect and how best to act today.

Most likely, the US central bank will hold a fourth super-scale interest rate hike, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will repeat his pledges to fight inflation. But whether it will open the door for a possible rate cut in the future is a big question. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, the highest level since 2008. By doing so, the central bank will continue its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s.

During his press conference, Powell may emphasize that the Fed remains steadfast in the idea of fighting inflation, leaving open options for further aggressive rate hikes at a meeting in mid-December this year. However, the markets are already divided into two camps: some expect another rate hike of 0.75%, while others believe that the Fed will slow down and raise them by only 50 basis points.

As I noted above, Powell's July speech was misinterpreted by investors as a short-term policy reversal, in response to which the markets rallied, which softened financial conditions and reflected on bond yields. This made it more difficult for the Fed to contain prices, which forced Powell to return to a tough tone of statements again. With the latest CPI data coming out, the Fed needs to continue to maintain tight financial conditions to keep the economy cool, only to help stop price increases in the near future.

Another important point is that the expected move from the Fed today will take place less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, where the main accusations from Republicans are based precisely on high inflation, which was allowed by the Democratic Party and US President Joe Biden. Last week, two Democratic senators urged Powell not to cause unnecessary pain to the economy by raising rates too high.

As for the statements made today after the meeting, the dollar's succeeding direction will depend on them. If promises of a "further increase" in interest rates persist, the US dollar will strengthen its position against the euro and the British pound, as well as other risky assets. If the promises are "slightly changed", for example, in order to show that the Fed is getting closer to the economy, then this may have a positive impact on stock markets and risky assets, which will pull up the euro and the British pound.

Most likely, the Fed will recall its plans to reduce its huge balance sheet. Economists predict that the balance will reach $8.5 trillion by the end of the year before dropping to $6.7 trillion in December 2024.

As for the technical picture of EURUSD, the bears actively counterattacked, which led to a new wave of decline. For growth, it is necessary to return the pair above 0.9900 and 0.9950, which will spur the trading instrument to growth towards 1.0000 and 1.0040. However, the upward prospects will depend entirely on the further reaction of buyers of risky assets to the Fed meeting. The breakthrough of parity has taken place, which, for now, allows us to keep the market at the mercy of the bears. An exit below 0.9850 will increase the pressure on the trading instrument and push the euro to a low of 0.9820, which will only aggravate the position of buyers of risky assets in the market. Having missed 0.9820, it will be possible to wait for new lows around 0.9780 and 0.9750.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD, although the pound is being corrected, it has already reached quite important levels. Now the bulls are focused on defending the support at 1.1500 and breaking through the resistance at 1.1550, limiting the pair's growth potential. Only a break of 1.1550 will return prospects for recovery to the area of 1.1610 and 1.1690, after which it will be possible to speak of a sharper upward spurt of the pound, to the area of 1.1730 and 1.1780. We can talk about the trading instrument being under pressure after the bears take control of 1.1500. This will deal a blow to the bulls' positions and completely cancel out the short-term prospects of the bull market. A break of 1.1500 will push the GBPUSD back towards 1.1440 and 1.1345.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

Bullish sentiment in gold is growing

Gold's bounce off a two-year low, followed by a nearly 3% gain on Friday, is creating solid bullish momentum among Wall Street analysts; however, some also point out that the precious metal still has some work to do to reverse the months-long downward trend.

The latest survey shows that market sentiment continues to improve and most market analysts expect prices to rise in the near future. Retail investors are also looking positively.

Bullish sentiment has been on the rise all week after gold prices ended October with their seventh straight monthly drop, the longest losing streak in 50 years.

Rising bond yields and the US dollar, which is at its highest level in 20 years, remain critical headwinds for gold; however, some analysts note that growing fears of a recession are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said the US recession would force the Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle before it reaches its 2% inflation target. He added that a stagflationary environment of low economic growth and high inflation would be bullish for gold.

However, in anticipation that gold prices will have enough momentum to rise, a return to $1,680 will simply return the market to neutral territory.

Christopher Vecchio, senior market analyst at DailyFX.com, said he is neutral on gold as he would also like to see an initial push above $1,680 leading to $1,730.

Last week, 20 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Ten analysts, or 50%, said they are optimistic this week. Two analysts, or 10%, said they were bearish. Eight analysts, or 40%, said they were neutral about the precious metal.

As for retail, 520 respondents took part in online surveys. A total of 240 voters, or 46%, called for an increase in the price of gold. Another 169, or 33%, predicted a fall in prices. While the remaining 111 voters, or 21%, were in favor of a side market.

Friday's rally helped gold prices end the week positively.

Problems in the labor market adds to the recession fears. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said 261,000 jobs were created in October, exceeding all expectations. However, some analysts believe that if you delve into the essence, you can see a growing weakness.

Along with rising bullish fundamentals for gold, many analysts note that the technical outlook has turned positive as well.

"Gold had been building a technical base above $1,620 support and appears to be starting to launch up off of there," said Colin Cheshinsky, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.

He added that bond yields remain well above 4%, which would be a deterrent for gold. And the Fed continues to raise interest rates, and in these conditions, gold's rally may turn towards sales.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November 10. Amazon's market value has fallen below $1 trillion

Amazon became the first public company to lose $1 trillion in market value. On Wednesday, the company's shares fell 4.3% to $86.14, bringing its market value now to $879 billion. For comparison, back in July 2021, it was almost $1.9 trillion.

Analysts note that such a decline is almost equivalent to the loss of the market value of Google's parent company Alphabet, which now stands at about $1.13 trillion.

In 2022, Amazon shares lost about 48% of their value. The company's market value fell below the $1 trillion mark on November 1, a few days after the publication of the third quarter report and the forecast of the slowest growth in the fourth quarter in history.

Experts note that not only Amazon has suffered losses: due to rising inflation and other macroeconomic shocks, 5 other leading American technology companies have lost almost $4 trillion of their market value this year. The reason for this, analysts call the impoverishment of people's budgets, still high inflation and rising energy costs.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November 14. The oil market is growing at the beginning of a new trading week

Oil prices have been showing growth for the third consecutive session amid expectations of demand growth in China as a result of changes in the policy of the country's authorities to combat coronavirus, as well as the introduction of new measures to support the economy.

As it became known, Beijing announced the reduction of mass testing of people for Covid-19, as well as the dissolution of «quarantine camps». The Chinese authorities have announced that they are planning further changes, thanks to which covid restrictions will become more focused, but not soft. Thus, China's adjustment of the «zero tolerance» for coronavirus has given a powerful incentive for the growth of the oil market.

The current price of Brent oil is $96.70 per barrel. North American WTI oil is trading near the level of $89.60 per barrel.

Analysts note that the increase in oil consumption by China may coincide with a reduction in supply on the market (due to the upcoming entry into force of the European embargo on the import of Russian oil and a reduction in OPEC+ production).

Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the entry into force of the European embargo on the purchase of oil in Russia on December 5 is likely to force Moscow to sell some oil at a price not exceeding the ceiling set by the US and its allies if Russia wants to avoid a significant reduction in oil exports.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November 16. Inflation in the UK accelerated to the highest since 1981

According to the British Office for National Statistics, inflation in Great Britain accelerated to 11.1% in annual terms in October, which was the highest since 1981.

The rate of acceleration of inflation turned out to be higher than the expectations of experts, who predicted a price increase of 10.7%. In August, inflation was 9.9%, and in September – 10.1%.

Analysts call the increase in electricity tariffs the main driver of price growth. In addition, the rise in food prices had a strong impact on the dynamics of inflation. In particular, products in October rose in price by 16.4%, which was the highest in 45 years. The prices of milk, cheese and eggs have soared the most.

Thus, if we consider the poorest British families with a low level of expenses, who spend most of their earnings on paying bills and buying groceries, then for them the increase in inflation was more than 16% in October. The ONS also estimated that middle-income Britons spend about a third of the family budget for these purposes.

In the autumn, the British economy entered a recession, and the head of the Ministry of Finance of the kingdom said that Russia was responsible for this. According to him, it was Moscow that created a situation in the world that led to inflation and an increase in interest rates.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November 17. Wall Street: 3 oil companies whose stocks are worth paying attention to

Experts say that the tense situation on the world oil market does not bode well for many countries of the world that are still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

However, despite this, Wall Street recommends that investors pay attention to the shares of 3 oil companies, which can bring substantial profits next year.

Shell is a multinational energy giant operating in more than 70 countries and producing about 3.2 million barrels of oil per day.

Shell has a stake in 10 refineries, and last year the company sold 64.2 million tons of LNG. The company's shares are listed on the London Stock Exchange, the Euronext exchange in Amsterdam and the New York Stock Exchange. It is worth noting that the shares registered on the NYSE have increased by 26% since the beginning of the year. Shell is trading at about $56 per share today.

Chevron is another major oil company benefiting from the commodity boom.

For the third quarter, Chevron made a profit of $11.2 billion, which is 84% more than in the same period last year, and the company's sales and other operating income for the quarter amounted to $64 billion, which exceeded last year's figures by 49%. Chevron approved a 6% increase in quarterly dividends to $1.42 per share, meaning its dividend yield was 3.0%. Over the year, the company's shares have grown by 57%.

Exxon Mobil has the largest market capitalization — more than $460 billion, which is more than Shell and Chevron.

In addition, the oil company boasts the strongest share price dynamics among all 3 companies in 2022: its shares have increased by 79% since the beginning of the year. In the first 9 months of 2022, Exxon earned $43.0 billion in profit, which is significantly more than $14.2 billion last year. Exxon Mobil's free cash flow for the first 9 months of 2022 was $49.8 billion compared to $22.9 billion for the same period last year. The company pays a quarterly dividend of 91 cents per share, which corresponds to an annual yield of 3.2%.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November 18. Inflation in Japan has reached its highest since January 1991

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, consumer prices in October increased by 3.7% compared to the same month last year. This was the highest value since January 1991, while the rise in prices was marked for the 14th month in a row.

In September, the inflation rate was fixed at 3%. Analysts had expected a 3.5% price increase.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6% (the fastest pace since April 2014). In September, the indicator increased by 0.3%.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food (a key indicator tracked by the Bank of Japan) in October increased by 3.6% year-on-year after rising by 3% in September. This growth was the highest since February 1982.

In particular, food prices in Japan rose by 6.2%, fuel, electricity and water supply - by 14.6%, electricity – by 10.9%. The cost of transport and telecommunication services increased by 2%.

It is worth noting that the central bank's target is at the level of 2%, and the current inflation rate exceeds it for the seventh month in a row.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

November 29. Oil prices rise in anticipation of OPEC+ meeting

World oil prices started to rise on Tuesday, reaching $86.68 per barrel. Investors are waiting for the weakening of quarantine measures in China and are assessing the prospects for the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday.

The current quotation of Brent crude oil is $86.00 per barrel, North American WTI oil is trading at $79.35 per barrel.

Yesterday, the quotes showed a noticeable decline: the Brent price fell below the level of $81 per barrel for the first time since January 11, 2022.

As you know, a record increase in Covid-19 infections was recorded in China for several days in a row, as a result of which some quarantine restrictions were tightened, and riots and protest actions took place in a number of cities. Now the markets expect that the Chinese authorities may move to ease restrictive measures. And since China is one of the largest consumers and importers of oil, expectations about the country's economy affect the prospects for demand for this type of raw material.

In addition, market participants are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. Traders evaluate what measures the alliance can take against the background of supply and demand risks. Also, the market dynamics are influenced by the results of meetings of EU countries, at which European diplomats are trying to agree on the introduction of a specific price limit for Russian oil. At the moment, the countries have again failed to come to an agreement.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

December 6. Analysts: US bear market is two-thirds of the way

According to analysts, the US stock market has already experienced most of the current bear market, but not all of it. Therefore, the current fall in stocks will last for some time before a new rally begins.

Many have regarded the recent surge in the market as a potential start of a new bull market, but history shows that this rally may be a retreat. Traditionally, the average bear market since the Second World War lasted 14 months and led to a decline of 35.7% from previous highs. The current bear market has been going on for about 11 months and has fallen by 15%, which suggests that it has gone two-thirds of the way.

At the same time, the S&P 500 index rose by 16% from its low in mid-October of 3491.58 points – on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the pace of rate hikes, and inflation will slow down.

And now the market has moved away from the October lows and returned to levels that require significant premiums to fair value. And even with the downturn this year, stock valuations still do not reflect the growing difficulties in the economy and still have not declined to the level seen during past recessions.

The federal funds rate has risen from 0.0% to a range of 3.75% to 4%, and a sixth increase is expected to take place before the end of 2022. But at the same time, the Fed will slow down the rate of increase to 50 basis points.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

December 27. Analysts predict a strengthening of the US dollar in 2023

Analysts at Danske Bank believe that the state of the global economy will be crucial for the dynamics of exchange rates in 2023. The bank's review says that all forecasts for the next year are based on the strengthening of the US dollar and the tightening of financial conditions in the world.

However, if inflation concerns quickly fade away, the prospects for the foreign exchange market will be different. Because the US Federal Reserve System may make a U-turn in its policy of aggressive rate hikes.

To date, market participants believe that the US currency will decline in 2023, but Danske Bank is still skeptical about the justification of such optimism. Analysts believe that a fair assessment of the EUR/USD pair is closer to $0.9. Experts also expect that inflationary pressure will weaken in the US faster than in the eurozone, which may put strong pressure on the single European currency.

Therefore, in the absence of any positive developments, the euro may go down. In general, analysts adhere to the «bearish» forecast for the EUR/USD pair, as many negative economic factors will continue in 2023. On the other hand, the lifting of anti-bullying restrictions in China may have a positive impact on the eurozone economy and its currency.

According to forecasts, the euro exchange rate will be around $1.05 in the next month, $1.02 – in three months. At the same time, experts raised the estimate in twelve months to $ 0.98 from the previously expected $0.93.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 9. Oil exceeded the level of $81 per barrel

On Monday, oil quotes are steadily rising after a significant decline in the results of last week.

The current Brent quote is $81.28 per barrel. The minimum of last week was marked at $78. North American WTI crude is trading near $76.50 per barrel after falling to $73.20 last week.

Support for prices today was provided by concerns about the prospects for oil demand in China, where the number of COVID-19 diseases has sharply increased after the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Experts note that the increase in economic activity in China is the main factor that can push oil demand to growth. At the same time, serious uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the return of the PRC economy to normal activity.

In addition, there are also concerns about a downturn in the global economy in the context of the ongoing tightening of monetary policy by the world's largest central banks, which also supports the oil market.

The decline in oil prices last week was caused by the strengthening of the US dollar, falling natural gas prices, as well as the risks of recession in the world. In Europe, there is a fairly warm winter, which leads to cheaper gas. And this, in turn, weakens expectations that consumers will switch from gas to oil this winter.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 11. The Egyptian pound has fallen to a historic low

The Egyptian currency has fallen to a historic low. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Egyptian pound rose today to the level of 32.195, adding 16.3%. Over the past 12 months, Egypt's national currency has depreciated by more than 76%.

The weakening of the pound began after the International Monetary Fund yesterday outlined the details of a $3 billion aid package to the country. Egypt has committed itself to introduce a flexible exchange rate, strengthen the role of the private sector in the country's economy, and carry out a number of monetary and fiscal reforms.

In addition, among its obligations is to reduce investments in state and national projects in order to reduce inflation and reduce foreign currency spending.

Recall that Egypt faced a shortage of foreign currency, despite the sharp depreciation of the Egyptian pound last year. A year ago, the currency was trading in a narrow range below 16 Egyptian pounds per dollar. However, in March and October 2022, the Central Bank of Egypt allowed the pound to depreciate sharply. On October 27, the Egyptian pound fell by 15% after the announcement of a new financing package from the International Monetary Fund. Then the regulator announced that it was moving to a more flexible currency regime.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 12. Gold exceeded $1900 amid the inflation data in the United States

The price of the February gold futures soared by 1.28% today and reached $1905 per troy ounce. Above the $1,900 mark, gold is trading for the first time since May 2022.

The driver of growth to an eight-month high was the weakening of the dollar on the eve of the release of US inflation data for December. The dollar index lost 0.79% and reached 102.09 points, which was the lowest since June 2022. And as you know, the weakening of the dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.

According to the US Department of Labor, by the end of December, the year-on-year growth in consumer prices slowed to 6.5% against 7.1% in November, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) at the end of December amounted to 5.7% year-on-year, which also meets the expectations of experts. In November, this figure was 6%.

Analysts note that the pressure on the US currency is also exerted by a decrease in the yields of US government bonds. This suggests that fears that inflation will remain at a high level, forcing the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy for longer, are gradually weakening.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 13. Germany's GDP grew by 1.9% in 2022

According to the Federal Statistical Agency of Germany, the German economy grew by 1.9% in 2022. For comparison, in 2021, the country's GDP increased by 2.6%. The average growth rate for the period from 2011 to 2021 was 1%.

As noted in the agency's report, Europe's largest economy suffered last year from the energy crisis, high inflation, rising interest rates and disruptions in supply chains. The Covid-19 pandemic, though fading, is also having its negative impact on the economy.

The volume of GDP last year was 0.7% higher than the indicator of the pre-pandemic 2019. The main engine of growth of the German economy was consumer spending, which increased by 4.6% in 2022 (by 0.4% in 2021), while the rate of increase in investment in fixed assets slowed to 0.2% from 1.2%, the growth rate of government spending decreased to 1.1% from 3.8%.

Exports of goods from Germany increased by 3.2% last year, and imports increased by 6.7%. Which, by the way, had a negative impact on the country's GDP.

The total deficit of public budgets in Germany in 2022 amounted to 101.631 billion euros (compared to 134.252 billion euros in 2021). Thus, the decrease was 24%.

The negative balance of the federal budget decreased to 117.633 billion euros from 145.925 billion euros.

Throughout 2022, an average of 45.6 million people worked in Germany, which is 589 thousand (1.3%) higher than in the previous year.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 17. The price of gas in the EU has dropped to $600/thousand cubic meters

The cost of gas in Europe fell below the level of $600 per thousand cubic meters for the first time since the end of August 2021, against the background of a warm winter and the temperature norm approaching optimal values.

The contract with the delivery «a day ahead» at the TTF hub in the Netherlands dropped to $590 per thousand cubic meters. February futures – up to $615.

Analysts note that the warm weather in October, November and January, as well as cost-saving measures, have led to the fact that at the moment the level of gas reserves in underground gas storage facilities (UGS) is the highest in the history of observations. And this strengthens the confidence of the authorities in the safe passage of winter.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data from January 15, Europe's UGS are 81.49% full. In addition, gas quotes are affected by high wind power generation rates.

At the same time, Asian quotes remain significantly higher than European ones. In particular, the February futures on the JKM Platts index (Japan Korea Marker, reflecting the spot market value of goods shipped to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan) is located at $957.

Recall that on December 19, 2022, the EU countries agreed on a ceiling of gas prices in the amount of 180 euros per 1 MWh, (or $ 1975 per 1000 cubic meters). This price limit will take effect from February 15. The ceiling will be activated if the price of gas for TTF exceeds the agreed mark, and the spread to the price of liquefied natural gas in the EU will be more than 35 euros per 1 MWh. It is worth noting that the price ceiling will not apply to over-the-counter transactions.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 19. The share of the pound in international settlements fell to a June low

According to the SWIFT international system, the share of the pound sterling in international settlements by the end of December fell to 6.08%, which was the lowest value since June.

During the month, the British currency lost 1.01 percentage points, while retaining third place in the list of the most popular settlement currencies. The last time when the value was much less than the current one, it was noted in June: then the pound accounted for 5.96% of international settlements.

Analysts note that the dollar and the euro have strengthened their positions in the rating of currencies – they took first and second places with a share of 41.89% and 36.34%, respectively. The «American» for the month grew by 0.51 percentage points, and the «European» — by 0.22 points.

The Japanese yen is still in fourth place at the end of December, the share of which increased by 0.34 percentage points to 2.88% over the month.

The Chinese yuan closes the top five with a share of 2.15% and a decrease of 0.22 percentage points over the month.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 23. Retail sales in Britain showed a record drop since 1997

According to the UK Bureau of National Statistics, retail sales in December 2022 decreased by 5.8% compared to the same period in 2021. This was a record drop in the entire history of observations since 1997.

According to the ONS, retail sales in Britain have declined for the second month in a row. In December, they unexpectedly fell by 1%, which is twice as much as the 0.5% predicted by analysts. In November, the drop was also 0.5%.

The State Bureau also reported that the sales volumes recorded in December were 1.7% less than in February 2020 before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Total retail sales fell by 3% between 2021 and 2022.

Analysts note that after the start of the special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the West increased sanctions pressure on Russia. As a result, the disruption of logistics chains has led to an increase in fuel and food prices in Europe and the United States. In the UK itself, the rising cost of living has hit millions of households.

Recall that the Bank of England raised the base interest rate by 50 basis points – from 3% to 3.5%. The regulator also announced the beginning of a recession in the country, which will last the whole of 2023 and the first half of 2024. Annual inflation in the UK at the end of December was 10.5%.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 25. Microsoft shares fell amid the release of a weak report

Microsoft shares jumped 5.26% to $254.79 in postmarket trading. However, then the dynamics changed, and according to the results of the postmarket, the IT giant's securities fell by 1.02%, to $234.64.

On Tuesday, Microsoft released its financial report for the second fiscal quarter, which ended in December 2022. The company reported a 7% decrease in adjusted net profit to $17.4 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell 6% to $2.32. At the same time, analysts predicted EPS at $2.29.

Microsoft's total revenue grew by 2% and reached $52.75 billion, while Wall Street forecast $52.94 billion. This was the lowest increase in quarterly revenue since 2016.

Experts also note that Microsoft is increasingly becoming cloud-based. The share of various kinds of cloud services already accounts for 40% of revenue and more than 40% of operating profit. At the same time, the corporation began to earn less in other segments. Thus, revenues from PC products, including the Microsoft Windows operating system and Office software, decreased by 19% to $14.2 billion.

The corporation also gave a forecast that disappointed investors: it is expected that in the third fiscal quarter revenue will be from $50.5 billion to $51.5 billion, which is about 3% more than a year earlier. Analysts predicted that revenue in the current quarter would be $52.43 billion.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 26. Brent crude oil exceeded the level of $87 per barrel

On Thursday, the oil market shows steady growth: Brent quotes rose to the level of $87.50 per barrel. The North American grade of WTI oil is trading today near the level of $81.50 per barrel.

Traders continue to evaluate data on fuel stocks in the United States. According to the report of the Ministry of Energy, commercial oil reserves increased by 533 thousand barrels last week. The growth of reserves was recorded for the fifth week in a row.

Gasoline inventories increased by 1.76 million barrels, while distillate inventories decreased by 507 thousand barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in oil reserves by 1.5 million barrels, an increase in gasoline reserves by 1.5 million barrels and a drop in distillate reserves by 1.6 million barrels.

Experts note that the data of the Ministry of Energy reflected what the market has been putting into quotes in recent weeks: the growing premium of Brent compared to WTI since the end of December leads to an increase in exports, which limits the growth of stocks, despite the weak workload of American refineries.

Investors are also assessing the risks of a recession in the global economy and the prospects for fuel demand in China. Fears of a recession and the weakening of hopes for a «soft landing» for the economy remain negative factors for the market. At the same time, analysts expect that optimism about a sharp recovery in demand in China will support oil quotes in the near future.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 27. Central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in half a century

According to a report by economists of the International Monetary Fund and the University of California at Berkeley, gold not only did not leave the international reserve currency, but also significantly increased its performance, as the gold reserves of the world's central banks increased after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Experts note that in the third quarter of 2022, leading central banks bought more gold than in any other quarter for 55 years. The main buyers at the same time were banks of developing countries, such as Russia, China, India, Turkey, Argentina, Hungary and Belarus.

Among the main reasons for the increase in purchases, analysts note the popularity of gold as a traditional and safe means of saving at a time when a number of countries are subject to financial sanctions.

An interesting fact is that Russia, Iran and other countries that are subject to US sanctions can now combine blockchain technologies with gold to launch a digital currency that can compete with the dollar. Blockchain will allow these countries to make transactions with gold without actually redirecting coins or bullion.

Moreover, gold today is the only significant asset that is not controlled by any country and that cannot be forged. It is also the only asset that largely guarantees financial confidentiality.

Charot FXMart · Senior Member

January 30. The main economic events of the day: January 30, 2023

At the end of last week, the dollar managed to finish trading in positive territory, and its DXY index showed a modest increase of about 20 points. Last week, which was the last full trading week of the month, turned out to be extremely volatile and saturated with the publication of important macro statistics.

The current week promises to be no less interesting: meetings of the three largest world central banks (Fed, Bank of England, ECB) are expected at once, at which decisions on rates will be made. Market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.50% from the ECB and the Bank of England, but only 0.25% from the Fed.

The week will end with the publication of key data from the US labor market: the US Department of Labor will present a monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report with data for January.

The main and only event of Monday, January 30, will be the publication of preliminary data on German GDP for the 4th quarter. Since the German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, a high value of the GDP indicator is considered a positive factor for EUR, and a low one is considered a negative factor.

Analysts predict that German GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2022 amounted to 0%, and in annual terms – 0.8%. The previous values were marked at the levels of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively. The data is better than the forecast may strengthen the euro in the short term.