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Charot FXMart · Guru

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Charot FXMart · Guru

China will maintain its leadership in car exports, despite EU duties

China will maintain its leading position among global car exporters in 2025. Despite this, the volume of supplies will significantly decrease due to the introduction of additional duties by the European Union on electric vehicles manufactured in China.

Europe, as the largest overseas market, remains an important source of revenue for Chinese automakers who seek to minimize the impact of trade barriers by introducing gasoline and hybrid models.

Large companies such as SAIC Motor are expanding their product lines with hybrid technologies. Hua Chuang Securities estimates that Chinese car exports could reach 5.58 million units in 2025, up 14% from a year earlier, but significantly lower than the 29% increase this year and 58% in 2023, when China surpassed Japan.

According to Canalys, Chinese car exports grew by 27% in the first three quarters, reaching 3.1 million units. However, EU duties ranging from 17% to 35.3% will weaken demand for electric vehicles. SAIC Motor already offers hybrid versions of the MG3 and MG ZS models to retain European customers.

In October, the EU imposed new five-year tariffs on Chinese EVs, supplementing the standard 10% tax. They also affect brands such as Volkswagen and BMW, which produce cars in China.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Russia has started using Bitcoin in foreign trade

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russian companies have started using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in international settlements. This was made possible by changes in legislation aimed at circumventing Western sanctions.

Economic restrictions have made it difficult to trade with key partners such as China and Turkey, as local banks avoid transactions with Russia for fear of sanctions. In response, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in international trade and took steps to legalize their mining, including bitcoin mining.

«As part of the experimental regime, bitcoins mined in Russia can be used for international trade operations,» Siluanov said on the Rossiya 24 TV channel. He stressed that such transactions are already taking place, and expressed confidence in their further expansion in 2025. The minister called international payments using digital currencies an important step into the future.

President Vladimir Putin noted earlier in December that the actions of the US administration undermine the dollar's role as a reserve currency, forcing countries to look for alternative assets. He singled out bitcoin as an example of a tool that cannot be controlled by any country in the world.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Tesla shares have a dangerous competitor – Nvidia

According to Vanda Research, Nvidia shares attracted record investments of almost $30 billion in 2024. This has made them the most popular among private investors.

As of the end of December, Nvidia shares are on track to overtake the popularity of Tesla shares, which were the leaders in 2023. «Nvidia kind of stole the show from Tesla because of the impressive price increase. The results speak for themselves,» said Marco Iacini, Senior Vice President of Vanda.

However, as previously reported, Nvidia shares fell by 2.55% on December 9 after the Chinese authorities announced the launch of an antitrust investigation into the company.

Experts believe that Nvidia is «caught in the crossfire» of the battle for technological supremacy between the United States and China, as Washington has banned the company from selling advanced semiconductors to Chinese companies.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The dollar's share in world reserves has updated its 30-year low

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter reached its lowest level in almost 30 years.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the indicator decreased by 0.85 percentage points, amounting to 57.4%. This is the lowest value since 1995, as there are no earlier statistics.

The decrease in the dollar's share is due to an increase in investments in euros: its share increased to 20.02% from 19.75% in the second quarter.

Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, reaching 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively. For the yen, this was the highest since the end of March 2021.

The Swiss franc, like the dollar, reduced its share of reserves to 0.17%, which was the lowest since the end of 2021.

On the contrary, interest in the yuan began to recover: after nine quarters of decline, its share in reserves increased to 2.17% in the third quarter of 2025.

Charot FXMart · Guru

What awaits the U.S. economy in 2025?

The U.S. economy enters 2025 with positive forecasts, despite the risks associated with high interest rates, a possible weakening of the labor market and political instability.

Consumption remains steady, corporate profits are growing, and businesses are investing in technology and preparing for the AI revolution.

According to forecasts, GDP growth in 2025 will be 2.5%, which is only slightly below the level of 2024. The S&P 500 index is also expected to grow by 12% due to successful corporate performance.

However, challenges remain: the labor market is showing a slowdown in hiring, and the number of long-term unemployed is increasing. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 2.5% for 2025 and is likely to limit further rate cuts, which will put pressure on corporate and government debt.

Investments in equipment and technology continue to grow, which supports economic dynamics. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's program, which includes tariffs and reforms, may pose risks to inflation and market stability in the long term.

In general, experts remain optimistic: consumption, business investment and technological innovation will be the drivers of growth.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil continues to rise in price after rising the day before

Oil prices continue to rise, reaching their highest levels since October. Brent futures for March delivery rose to $77.85 per barrel.

The day before, this grade rose by $0.75 (+1%), closing at $77.05. WTI futures for February delivery added $0.41 (+0.55%) and reached $74.66 per barrel, after rising by $0.69 (+0.9%) a day earlier. Both brands ended the previous session at their highest levels since October.

Growth factors:

-Seasonal demand. The good travel figures during the holiday period supported the optimism.
-Chinese incentives. Expectations of economic support in China are pushing the quotes up.

Inventory data:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in oil reserves in the United States by 4 million barrels per week, which was the fifth decline in a row. If the official data of the Ministry of Energy confirms this assessment, it will strengthen the market. Analysts predict a decrease in stocks by 250 thousand barrels.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The Fed expects further interest rate cuts in 2025

Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, expressed confidence that inflation in the United States will continue to decline in 2025, which will create conditions for further interest rate cuts.

Although inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target at the end of 2024, market estimates and short-term indicators point to a slowing trend.

At an OECD event in Paris, Waller stressed that further rate cuts would be possible with a steady decline in inflation and stability in the labor market. He noted that the Fed has already cut the key rate by 1 percentage point over the last three meetings, but at the next meeting in January, the rate is expected to remain in the range of 4.25-4.5%. According to him, opinions within the Fed are divided: from assumptions about the absence of a rate cut to expectations of a reduction of 1.25 percentage points in 2025.

Waller added that the U.S. economy remains strong, with rising hiring and wages supporting consumer spending. New data on the labor market, which will be published in the coming days, may confirm this stability.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The pound continues to fall

The British pound continues to lose ground, showing a noticeable lag behind the trajectory of UK government bond yields. Deutsche Bank analysts recommend selling the pound based on data from a broad trade-weighted index.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2213. Today, the currency has plummeted from 1.2318. Analysts note that since the beginning of the year, the pound sterling has shown the worst results among world currencies, comparable to the decline recorded after the announcement of the UK budget in November last year.

In its analysis, Deutsche Bank points to no signs of improvement in the country's current account deficit, as well as the risk of further deterioration in volatility-adjusted yields.

The bank's report pays special attention to the dependence of the pound on capital inflows through the carry trade, which is now under threat. After taking profits on long positions in December, Deutsche Bank analysts revised their strategy and switched to selling recommendations.

Since the beginning of the year, the pound has lost just over 1% in the trade-weighted index. Although this has not historically been a significant decline, the recent weakness of the pound is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of the strengthening US dollar, against which most world currencies have reached multi-month or even multi-year lows.

Charot FXMart · Guru

A strong US economy strengthens the dollar to a two-year high

On Monday, the US dollar strengthened, forcing other currencies to reach multi-year lows. Its growth was supported by strong employment data, confirming the resilience of the US economy and complicating the prospects for a Fed rate cut.

The dollar index, reflecting its exchange rate against a basket of currencies, reached 110.17, the highest in more than two years. This happened against the background of Friday's statistics, which showed an acceleration in job creation in December and a decrease in unemployment to 4.1%. These data have dampened expectations for a rate cut, and markets are now ruling out the possibility of even one cut in 2025.

The publication of US inflation data on Wednesday could further strengthen the dollar if the CPI rises. Statements from the Fed's representatives are also expected this week, which may clarify their further actions.

The US economy is demonstrating resilience, which supports a high dollar exchange rate. According to analysts, the labor market has coped with any signs of weakness. Plans for import tariffs, tax cuts, and tougher immigration may also have an impact on inflation.

The euro fell to $1.0177, reaching its lowest level since November 2022, while the pound sterling fell 0.7%, dropping to a 14-month low of $1.21.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Japanese bond yields reached record levels

The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has reached a record high since they entered the market. This happened against the backdrop of a global sell-off of debt assets and expectations of higher interest rates from the Bank of Japan in the coming months.

The indicator increased by 3 basis points, reaching 2.755%, the highest level in the last 16 years. At the same time, Japan's 20-year bond yields have also reached a peak not seen since May 2011.

Rising yields are recorded around the world, which is associated with increasing concerns about inflation, increasing budget deficits and stable data on the US economy. Such factors force market participants to reconsider their expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts. In addition, investors are gradually putting into their forecasts the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, estimating this scenario at 60% in the coming week and at 83% by March.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, noted that the possibility of changing the current interest rate policy will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the central bank. Experts believe that a rate hike may take place in the coming days if market conditions turn out to be favorable for such a decision.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil tanker freight prices skyrocketed amid US sanctions

The cost of oil transportation is showing a noticeable increase, which is associated with forecasts of a decrease in the availability of tankers on the global market. The reason for this is the expansion of US sanctions measures against the Russian navy. The introduction of these restrictions affected freight rates, which increased between 15-35%, depending on the shipping route.

It is separately noted that yesterday the Shell oil Corporation leased three large tankers, each of which is capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil. The rental rate was Worldscale 70. The Chinese company Shenghong Petrochemical has also concluded deals for the charter of two vessels at a similar price. Deliveries are expected to be completed in early February.

According to ship brokers, the increased demand for oil tankers has caused a significant increase in tariffs on the Middle East–China route. In just a day, the indicator increased by WS10.75, reaching WS70.45 by January 15.

In addition, a similar trend has been recorded in other areas. For example, the fare on the Middle East-Singapore route increased by WS10.45, reaching WS71.80, and on the West Africa-China route, the increase was WS9.23, raising the rate to WS70.67.