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Charot FXMart · Guru

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Charot FXMart · Guru

China will maintain its leadership in car exports, despite EU duties

China will maintain its leading position among global car exporters in 2025. Despite this, the volume of supplies will significantly decrease due to the introduction of additional duties by the European Union on electric vehicles manufactured in China.

Europe, as the largest overseas market, remains an important source of revenue for Chinese automakers who seek to minimize the impact of trade barriers by introducing gasoline and hybrid models.

Large companies such as SAIC Motor are expanding their product lines with hybrid technologies. Hua Chuang Securities estimates that Chinese car exports could reach 5.58 million units in 2025, up 14% from a year earlier, but significantly lower than the 29% increase this year and 58% in 2023, when China surpassed Japan.

According to Canalys, Chinese car exports grew by 27% in the first three quarters, reaching 3.1 million units. However, EU duties ranging from 17% to 35.3% will weaken demand for electric vehicles. SAIC Motor already offers hybrid versions of the MG3 and MG ZS models to retain European customers.

In October, the EU imposed new five-year tariffs on Chinese EVs, supplementing the standard 10% tax. They also affect brands such as Volkswagen and BMW, which produce cars in China.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Russia has started using Bitcoin in foreign trade

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russian companies have started using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in international settlements. This was made possible by changes in legislation aimed at circumventing Western sanctions.

Economic restrictions have made it difficult to trade with key partners such as China and Turkey, as local banks avoid transactions with Russia for fear of sanctions. In response, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in international trade and took steps to legalize their mining, including bitcoin mining.

«As part of the experimental regime, bitcoins mined in Russia can be used for international trade operations,» Siluanov said on the Rossiya 24 TV channel. He stressed that such transactions are already taking place, and expressed confidence in their further expansion in 2025. The minister called international payments using digital currencies an important step into the future.

President Vladimir Putin noted earlier in December that the actions of the US administration undermine the dollar's role as a reserve currency, forcing countries to look for alternative assets. He singled out bitcoin as an example of a tool that cannot be controlled by any country in the world.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Tesla shares have a dangerous competitor – Nvidia

According to Vanda Research, Nvidia shares attracted record investments of almost $30 billion in 2024. This has made them the most popular among private investors.

As of the end of December, Nvidia shares are on track to overtake the popularity of Tesla shares, which were the leaders in 2023. «Nvidia kind of stole the show from Tesla because of the impressive price increase. The results speak for themselves,» said Marco Iacini, Senior Vice President of Vanda.

However, as previously reported, Nvidia shares fell by 2.55% on December 9 after the Chinese authorities announced the launch of an antitrust investigation into the company.

Experts believe that Nvidia is «caught in the crossfire» of the battle for technological supremacy between the United States and China, as Washington has banned the company from selling advanced semiconductors to Chinese companies.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The dollar's share in world reserves has updated its 30-year low

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter reached its lowest level in almost 30 years.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the indicator decreased by 0.85 percentage points, amounting to 57.4%. This is the lowest value since 1995, as there are no earlier statistics.

The decrease in the dollar's share is due to an increase in investments in euros: its share increased to 20.02% from 19.75% in the second quarter.

Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, reaching 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively. For the yen, this was the highest since the end of March 2021.

The Swiss franc, like the dollar, reduced its share of reserves to 0.17%, which was the lowest since the end of 2021.

On the contrary, interest in the yuan began to recover: after nine quarters of decline, its share in reserves increased to 2.17% in the third quarter of 2025.

Charot FXMart · Guru

What awaits the U.S. economy in 2025?

The U.S. economy enters 2025 with positive forecasts, despite the risks associated with high interest rates, a possible weakening of the labor market and political instability.

Consumption remains steady, corporate profits are growing, and businesses are investing in technology and preparing for the AI revolution.

According to forecasts, GDP growth in 2025 will be 2.5%, which is only slightly below the level of 2024. The S&P 500 index is also expected to grow by 12% due to successful corporate performance.

However, challenges remain: the labor market is showing a slowdown in hiring, and the number of long-term unemployed is increasing. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 2.5% for 2025 and is likely to limit further rate cuts, which will put pressure on corporate and government debt.

Investments in equipment and technology continue to grow, which supports economic dynamics. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's program, which includes tariffs and reforms, may pose risks to inflation and market stability in the long term.

In general, experts remain optimistic: consumption, business investment and technological innovation will be the drivers of growth.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil continues to rise in price after rising the day before

Oil prices continue to rise, reaching their highest levels since October. Brent futures for March delivery rose to $77.85 per barrel.

The day before, this grade rose by $0.75 (+1%), closing at $77.05. WTI futures for February delivery added $0.41 (+0.55%) and reached $74.66 per barrel, after rising by $0.69 (+0.9%) a day earlier. Both brands ended the previous session at their highest levels since October.

Growth factors:

-Seasonal demand. The good travel figures during the holiday period supported the optimism.
-Chinese incentives. Expectations of economic support in China are pushing the quotes up.

Inventory data:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in oil reserves in the United States by 4 million barrels per week, which was the fifth decline in a row. If the official data of the Ministry of Energy confirms this assessment, it will strengthen the market. Analysts predict a decrease in stocks by 250 thousand barrels.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The Fed expects further interest rate cuts in 2025

Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, expressed confidence that inflation in the United States will continue to decline in 2025, which will create conditions for further interest rate cuts.

Although inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target at the end of 2024, market estimates and short-term indicators point to a slowing trend.

At an OECD event in Paris, Waller stressed that further rate cuts would be possible with a steady decline in inflation and stability in the labor market. He noted that the Fed has already cut the key rate by 1 percentage point over the last three meetings, but at the next meeting in January, the rate is expected to remain in the range of 4.25-4.5%. According to him, opinions within the Fed are divided: from assumptions about the absence of a rate cut to expectations of a reduction of 1.25 percentage points in 2025.

Waller added that the U.S. economy remains strong, with rising hiring and wages supporting consumer spending. New data on the labor market, which will be published in the coming days, may confirm this stability.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The pound continues to fall

The British pound continues to lose ground, showing a noticeable lag behind the trajectory of UK government bond yields. Deutsche Bank analysts recommend selling the pound based on data from a broad trade-weighted index.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2213. Today, the currency has plummeted from 1.2318. Analysts note that since the beginning of the year, the pound sterling has shown the worst results among world currencies, comparable to the decline recorded after the announcement of the UK budget in November last year.

In its analysis, Deutsche Bank points to no signs of improvement in the country's current account deficit, as well as the risk of further deterioration in volatility-adjusted yields.

The bank's report pays special attention to the dependence of the pound on capital inflows through the carry trade, which is now under threat. After taking profits on long positions in December, Deutsche Bank analysts revised their strategy and switched to selling recommendations.

Since the beginning of the year, the pound has lost just over 1% in the trade-weighted index. Although this has not historically been a significant decline, the recent weakness of the pound is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of the strengthening US dollar, against which most world currencies have reached multi-month or even multi-year lows.

Charot FXMart · Guru

A strong US economy strengthens the dollar to a two-year high

On Monday, the US dollar strengthened, forcing other currencies to reach multi-year lows. Its growth was supported by strong employment data, confirming the resilience of the US economy and complicating the prospects for a Fed rate cut.

The dollar index, reflecting its exchange rate against a basket of currencies, reached 110.17, the highest in more than two years. This happened against the background of Friday's statistics, which showed an acceleration in job creation in December and a decrease in unemployment to 4.1%. These data have dampened expectations for a rate cut, and markets are now ruling out the possibility of even one cut in 2025.

The publication of US inflation data on Wednesday could further strengthen the dollar if the CPI rises. Statements from the Fed's representatives are also expected this week, which may clarify their further actions.

The US economy is demonstrating resilience, which supports a high dollar exchange rate. According to analysts, the labor market has coped with any signs of weakness. Plans for import tariffs, tax cuts, and tougher immigration may also have an impact on inflation.

The euro fell to $1.0177, reaching its lowest level since November 2022, while the pound sterling fell 0.7%, dropping to a 14-month low of $1.21.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Japanese bond yields reached record levels

The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has reached a record high since they entered the market. This happened against the backdrop of a global sell-off of debt assets and expectations of higher interest rates from the Bank of Japan in the coming months.

The indicator increased by 3 basis points, reaching 2.755%, the highest level in the last 16 years. At the same time, Japan's 20-year bond yields have also reached a peak not seen since May 2011.

Rising yields are recorded around the world, which is associated with increasing concerns about inflation, increasing budget deficits and stable data on the US economy. Such factors force market participants to reconsider their expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts. In addition, investors are gradually putting into their forecasts the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, estimating this scenario at 60% in the coming week and at 83% by March.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, noted that the possibility of changing the current interest rate policy will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the central bank. Experts believe that a rate hike may take place in the coming days if market conditions turn out to be favorable for such a decision.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil tanker freight prices skyrocketed amid US sanctions

The cost of oil transportation is showing a noticeable increase, which is associated with forecasts of a decrease in the availability of tankers on the global market. The reason for this is the expansion of US sanctions measures against the Russian navy. The introduction of these restrictions affected freight rates, which increased between 15-35%, depending on the shipping route.

It is separately noted that yesterday the Shell oil Corporation leased three large tankers, each of which is capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil. The rental rate was Worldscale 70. The Chinese company Shenghong Petrochemical has also concluded deals for the charter of two vessels at a similar price. Deliveries are expected to be completed in early February.

According to ship brokers, the increased demand for oil tankers has caused a significant increase in tariffs on the Middle East–China route. In just a day, the indicator increased by WS10.75, reaching WS70.45 by January 15.

In addition, a similar trend has been recorded in other areas. For example, the fare on the Middle East-Singapore route increased by WS10.45, reaching WS71.80, and on the West Africa-China route, the increase was WS9.23, raising the rate to WS70.67.

Charot FXMart · Guru

China's GDP growth in 2024 reached the target 5%

China's GDP grew by 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding the projected 5% and figures from previous quarters (5.3%, 4.7% and 4.6%). This made it possible to achieve annual economic growth of 5%, which corresponds to the official target.

Increased economic activity was due to a policy change in September last year, but large-scale incentives are needed for further recovery. At the same time, the statistical bureau warned of weak domestic demand and the impact of external factors, calling for an active macroeconomic policy.

Positive data strengthened the CSI 300 index by 0.15%, the yuan exchange rate to 7.3398 per dollar, and the yield on 10-year bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.638. December growth in retail sales was 3.7%, industrial production – 6.2%, but investments in fixed assets increased by only 3.2% over the year. Investments in real estate decreased by 10.6%. The unemployment rate rose to 5.1%.

Incomes of urban residents increased by 4.4%, in rural areas – by 6.3%. The representative of the statistical bureau noted weak consumer activity and a possible increase in external pressure in 2025. Inflation in the country remains low, and wholesale prices continue to decline for the 27th month in a row.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Trump's Inauguration and the Crypto Market: the beginning of an era of change

Bitcoin exceeded $109,000 for the first time in history, reaching $109,112 during trading. The growth is explained by the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies and plans to make bitcoin a national priority.

Moreover, on the eve of his inauguration, Trump launched the TRUMP meme token on the Solana blockchain, which caused an unprecedented stir. The capitalization of the token has reached $5 billion, and leading exchanges are adding it through futures. The project is linked to CIC Digital, which previously produced Trump's NFT. 80% of TRUMP tokens are blocked for three years, which highlights the long-term plans. The launch of TRUMP coincided with the expectation of the crypto reforms that Trump is going to initiate.

Against the background of the launch of TRUMP, Solana has significantly increased in price. According to Coin Metrics, the value of SOL increased by 12%, reaching $247.76, although previously the growth was almost 23%. TRUMP, with a capitalization of more than $5 billion, became the largest meme coin on the Solana network, which provoked an increase in interest in the platform. Against this background, large companies are applying to create ETFs related to Solana. Decisions on the applications are expected before January 25. Analysts predict that the approved ETFs will attract significant investments.

Also, Donald Trump's wife, Melania, announced the launch of her own cryptocurrency, called $MELANIA. The price of the token has reached over $5, and its market capitalization has exceeded $5 billion. In her message, Melania strongly recommended subscribers to think about investing in her project, which immediately received approval from participants in the cryptocurrency market.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Bitcoin is losing ground amid expectations of Trump's actions

The collapse of bitcoin from record heights recorded on Monday is related to traders' expectations regarding President Donald Trump's actions in the field of cryptocurrencies. After signing key decrees on the first day of his presidency, the market was hoping for signals about his position on crypto policy.

Previously, digital assets showed steady growth against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration. The optimism of market participants was caused by hopes for possible initiatives that could support the crypto industry. However, the president focused on other campaign promises, including issues related to TikTok, trade, and energy, without mentioning cryptocurrencies.

Against the background of this uncertainty, bitcoin lost ground, falling from a historical high of over $109,000. The uncertainty of Trump's trade policy increased the risk in the market, which was reflected in a decrease in the value of the main cryptocurrency to $102,240.

Additionally, the market was destabilized by Trump's release of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins, which led to increased volatility. Solana, Cardano and Polygon fell by 3.8-7%, while Dogecoin lost 6.1% among meme tokens.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Central banks of Sweden and Norway prepare to lower rates

Experts from Nordea Bank Abp predict the completion of the current cycle of monetary policy easing by the central banks of Sweden and Norway over the next six months. This development is attributed to the expected revival of domestic demand in the Scandinavian countries.

Riksbank in Sweden and Norges Bank in Norway are projected to reach their target rates by mid-summer, setting them at 2% and 4%, respectively. These indicators suggest a decrease of 50 basis points relative to current values, which is reflected in the latest economic forecast of the key financial institution of Northern Europe, published on Wednesday.

The forecasts for Sweden proposed by Nordea completely coincide with the consensus opinion of economists. Previously, the bank assumed that the level of the Riksbank key rate would reach 2% by the end of the year.

At the same time, Nordea's assessment of Norway differs markedly from the median forecasts. According to the latest data, Norges Bank's key interest rate is expected to gradually decrease to 2.9% over the next year.

For comparison, in the September forecast, Nordea experts assumed three consecutive rate cuts of 0.25 points, which could lead to a decrease in the level to 3.75% by the end of next year.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Saudi Arabia invests $600 billion in the U.S. economy

Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to increase investment and trade with the United States to the tune of $600 billion over the next four years. At the same time, the possibility of additional investments exceeding the declared volume is allowed.

This was announced by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud during a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, which took place on January 22.

During the conversation, prospects for cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States aimed at strengthening peace, security and stability in the Middle East region were discussed. In addition, special attention was paid to strengthening cooperation between the two countries in the framework of joint efforts to combat international terrorism.

The increased investment is expected to have a significant impact on the economic development of both countries, as well as be an important step in strengthening their strategic partnership.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The Bank of Japan raised rates to the highest since 2008

On Friday, the Bank of Japan increased interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 0.5%. This was the highest discount rate level since 2008. This decision is due to the regulator's desire to normalize monetary policy against the background of persistent signs of inflation and rising wages.

Against the background of this decision, the Japanese yen strengthened its position, adding 0.6% and reaching 155.12 against the dollar. At the same time, the country's main stock index, Nikkei 225, showed a slight increase.

The yield on ten-year Japanese government bonds also rose, adding 2.5 basis points and reaching 1.23%.

Previously, the regulator has repeatedly stressed that in order to raise interest rates, it is necessary to have a so-called «beneficial cycle» in which rising wages contribute to higher prices.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Bitcoin sank below $100 thousand: the market reacts to the initiatives of the White House

On Monday, the cost of bitcoin dropped below the $100,000 mark for the first time in a week, despite the beginning of the presidential term of Donald Trump, known for his support of cryptocurrencies.

The adjustment of the bitcoin exchange rate occurred against the background of an order by the American president to create a special working group designed to advise the White House on issues related to the regulation of digital assets.

According to the instruction, a team of experts should develop recommendations for creating a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market in the United States within six months, as well as analyze the possibility of introducing a national crypto reserve. However, the document did not mention any intentions to create a reserve in bitcoins.

After a number of favorable events, including regulatory support for cryptocurrencies, the launch of new ETF products, and government initiatives, experts note the beginning of market stabilization.

At Monday morning's trading, the cost of bitcoin reached a low of $99,694.7 per token, but by noon it had risen to $99,291.

Charot FXMart · Guru

$108 billion per day: how DeepSeek's success brought down the fortunes of billionaires

The fortune of the 500 richest people in the world decreased by $108 billion in one day due to the sale of shares in the technology sector caused by the success of the Chinese company DeepSeek. The NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 indexes fell by 3.1% and 1.5%, respectively.

The biggest losses were incurred by Jensen Huang, the founder of Nvidia, whose fortune decreased by 20%, or $20.1 billion, after the company's shares fell by 17%. Oracle's Larry Ellison lost $22.6 billion, Michael Dell lost $13 billion, and Changpeng Zhao of Binance lost $12.1 billion. In general, representatives of the technology sector recorded losses of $94 billion, which accounted for 85% of the overall decline in the index.

Hangzhou-based DeepSeek has released the DeepSeek R1 chatbot, which topped the global download charts. The company was able to create a free AI model, comparable in quality to ChatGPT and Claude, but at a lower cost. This has called into question Silicon Valley's approach based on large investments.

Chinese companies, including DeepSeek, are doing without advanced GPUs due to limited access to them caused by US export sanctions. Nevertheless, they probably have more such resources than expected, as noted by Scale AI CEO Alexander Wang.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The economic downturn in Germany may drag on into 2025

Germany's industrial community is expressing concern, predicting that Europe's largest economy could contract for the third year in a row in 2025. According to their forecasts, the expected decrease will be 0.1%.

President Peter Leibinger, who heads the BDI organization, stressed in a statement that the current situation is of serious concern. He paid special attention to the structural changes that have significantly affected the industrial development of the country.

In contrast to this pessimistic forecast, the opinions of most analysts look somewhat more encouraging. On average, they assume that the German economy may show growth of 0.4% in 2025. But after a two-year decline in GDP, including the expected results in 2024, the development prospects remain very vague.

For its part, the Bundesbank estimates possible growth in 2025 at 0.2%, but warns of the risks of a new recession. A key uncertainty factor remains the potential trade barriers that could be imposed by the United States if Donald Trump fulfills his promises to China and other countries.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil prices fell to January lows

Oil prices fell to January lows on Thursday due to concerns about the possible imposition of U.S. tariffs on oil imports from Mexico and Canada, the largest suppliers of raw materials to the United States. By mid-afternoon, April Brent futures fell by 0.62% to $75.00 per barrel, and WTI - by 0.55% to $72.22.

According to analysts, the imposition of tariffs proposed by Trump is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on oil markets, as traders have already incorporated these risks into current prices. They also point out that this explains the current level of oil prices.

Oil reserves in the United States increased by 3.46 million barrels last week, which coincided with forecasts suggesting an increase of 3.19 million. The reason was a decrease in demand due to winter storms.

Investors are now waiting for the OPEC+ meeting on February 3, where participants will discuss the impact of US measures to increase production. Experts believe that a price war between the United States and OPEC+ is unlikely, as it will cause damage to both sides. Analysts predict that the active use of OPEC+ reserves could reduce Brent prices below $50 per barrel and reduce shale production in the United States.

Charot FXMart · Guru

China prepares to respond to Trump's tariffs

China plans to respond to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration by focusing on restoring the «Phase One» trade agreement signed in 2020. This step includes a commitment not to devalue the yuan, increased investment in the United States, and reduced exports of fentanyl precursors.

Last week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and a number of Canadian goods, as well as 10% duties on products from China, which caused a resonance in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Beijing condemned these measures, rejected the accusations on fentanyl, but expressed its willingness to negotiate to prevent an escalation of the conflict.

The «Phase One» agreement ended a nearly two-year trade war by committing China to increase purchases of U.S. goods by $200 billion over two years. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing has been unable to achieve these goals. In January, the Trump administration commissioned an assessment of the implementation of the agreement.

Meanwhile, Canada retaliated by imposing 25% tariffs on U.S. goods worth $155 billion ($105.17 billion), increasing trade tensions.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The new government of Belgium: a course for reform and economic stability

Belgium has launched a new government led by Flemish nationalists from the N-VA party, which won the elections eight months ago. For the first time in the country's history, the post of Prime Minister of the federal government was occupied by N-VA leader Bart De Wever.

The formation of the cabinet was completed after an agreement was reached between the five parties. The coalition's program was the result of lengthy negotiations focused on budget cuts, tax policy changes, and pension system reforms to strengthen public finances.

Among the priorities of the new government are reducing the period of payment of unemployment benefits and adjusting pensions. Pension payments are planned to be reduced for those who retire early, and increased for those who continue to work after the established age. It is also planned to introduce a capital gains tax and cancel a number of tax benefits.

The coalition brought together Christian Democrats and Socialists from the Dutch-speaking north of the country, as well as liberal and centrist parties from the French-speaking south.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Federal Reserve Bank: rates will remain unchanged in the near future

The heads of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Atlanta, Susan Collins and Rafael Bostic, believe that given the uncertainty in the US economy and politics, there should be no rush to lower the base interest rate.

Collins noted the importance of a cautious approach in monetary policy, pointing out the prematurity of sudden changes. Bostic also said that it is necessary to wait for the effects of last year's Fed rate cut by 100 basis points to 4.25-4.5%.

Experts predict that the rate will remain at the current level until the end of 2025, although Collins and Bostic expect that the Fed may resume its reduction. According to Bostic, the US labor market will remain stable, and inflation will continue to decline towards the target 2%. The official also assumes that the rate will eventually reach 3-3.5%.

Collins also stressed that Donald Trump's trade policy may cause a short-term increase in inflation, but the consequences of the duties and the Fed's retaliatory measures are still difficult to assess. In 2025, Collins has the right to vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), while Bostic does not participate in the voting.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Currency markets: the dollar is losing ground, the yen and the pound are rising

The dollar hit an 8-week low against the yen and a 1-month low against the pound amid declining investor concerns about inflationary risks related to Trump's trade policy. The Japanese yen strengthened due to expectations of an interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan. Representatives of the regulator supported a further increase in the cost of lending, and positive data on wage growth strengthened its position.

The USD/JPY pair fell by 0.13% to 152.38, having previously reached its lowest level since December 12 at 151.82. The US currency lost 1.1% a day earlier. The British pound was trading at $1.2485, having previously reached its highest level since January 7 at $1.2550. The euro declined slightly, remaining below $1,0400, after three days of gains.

The dollar index rose to 107.75 after yesterday's fall to the lowest since January 27 at 107.30. At the beginning of the week, it reached a three-week high of 109.88 amid expectations of trade tariffs. However, Mexico and Canada received a reprieve, while 10% tariffs were imposed on China.

The easing of tariff threats has reduced pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, the probability of two Fed rate cuts this year is decreasing, despite the continuing impact of US inflation policy.

Charot FXMart · Guru

EU to tighten control over cheap goods on marketplaces

The European Commission has proposed to strengthen control over cheap goods sold through online marketplaces in the EU. The new measures are aimed at protecting consumers, combating counterfeiting and reducing environmental damage from parcel transportation. However, they can lead to higher prices and a reduction in the range.

In 2024, the EU received about 4.6 billion parcels with goods worth up to 22 euros, which is equivalent to 12 million shipments per day. This is twice as much as in 2023 and three times as much as in 2022. The European Commission notes that a significant part of these products do not meet European standards.

The proposed measures include the abolition of exemption from import duties for goods cheaper than 150 euros, increased customs control, the introduction of fees for processing orders and fines for marketplaces for violations.

Earlier, the EC initiated investigations against the Chinese Temu marketplace, which is visited by 75 million users in the EU every month. The company is accused of selling products that violate the law, and it faces significant fines.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The crypto market is on the rise: bitcoin is moving towards $100 000

The capitalization of the crypto market has reached $3.355 trillion (+$67 billion). The share of bitcoin is 58.0%, ether – 9.7%. The fear and greed index rose from 43 to 47, reflecting neutral investor sentiment.

Trading on February 10 for BTC/USDT ended with an increase of 1%, to $97,430. Bitcoin's movement continues to correlate with stock indexes amid a lack of significant news about BTC reserves and regulatory measures.

One of the pressure factors was the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China. Beijing has imposed tariffs of 15% on liquefied natural gas and coal, and 10% on oil. In response, the United States increased duties on aluminum and steel to 25%. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market remains stable.

In the Asian session, bitcoin is trading at $98,240. The growth of futures on the S&P 500 index creates a favorable background, which can support the upward movement of cryptocurrencies. The target correction level is currently estimated at $102,500, with resistance at $100,000. A steady consolidation above $102,500 can change the current picture, which is dominated by sellers. Some altcoin/BTC pairs are growing in the altcoin market, which puts pressure on the bitcoin exchange rate against the dollar and may affect its further dynamics.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Deposit rates in yuan dropped to the lowest in six months

In February, the average rates on yuan deposits in the largest Russian banks fell below 4%. For three-month deposits, they amounted to 3.38% per annum, for semi–annual deposits - 3.66%, and for annual deposits - 3.85%. These are the lowest values since September 2024, when rates began to decline after peaking at 5.32% per annum in November.

The reason was the restoration of liquidity: the currency deficit recorded in August-September triggered an increase in interest rates, but later the situation stabilized.

Most depositors choose short terms of placement. On average, money is placed for 5.5 months, while in January 2025 87% of deposits in yuan were opened for three months. However, this instrument remains a niche one: over 94% of Russian deposits are still placed in rubles, as ruble deposits offer higher returns.

Experts predict a further reduction in deposit rates in yuan if the volume of this currency on the market continues to grow. The key rate of the People's Bank of China, which is 3.1%, may also affect the dynamics of rates.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Influx of capital sets stage for BTC growth

Experts believe that Bitcoin is heading for a period of prosperity. The first cryptocurrency is paving its way upward thanks to an influx of capital. This source of growth for BTC remains strong, although the situation could change at any moment.

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $97,000, which is an expansion of the range it traded in from $98,600 to $95,000 last week. According to current data and technical indicators, Bitcoin remains in a strong position, although key levels of resistance and support will determine its next move. On Monday, February 17, BTC is trading at $96,230, trying to rise higher.

The price fluctuation range for BTC suggests potential profit-taking by market participants. The price distribution has shown strong support near $90,000, while resistance around $100,000 may determine the next step for BTC.

To date, the extreme price deviation ranges of MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) have shown strong volatility in the crypto, which has then decreased.

Although BTC briefly touched the upper deviation bands, overcoming this area would push it to new highs. On this path, Bitcoin is expected to face a short-term correction. Additionally, the current strong support level for BTC is near $93,000.

The UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized price distribution chart (URPD) has shown that a significant volume of BTC transactions took place in the range of $90,000 to $101,000. The concentration of transactions in these price zones suggests strong support and reduces the likelihood of the asset falling below $90,000 without substantial selling pressure. However, Bitcoin will need a strong bullish impulse to break higher.

From a technical standpoint, BTC's dynamics remain stable, trading slightly below its 50-day moving average of $98,801. The 200-day moving average for Bitcoin is at $80,021, providing long-term support. BTC's technical indicators signal cautious optimism regarding its near-term dynamics.

Analysts believe the first cryptocurrency may make another attempt to rise if buyers regain control of the situation. Experts are noting the potential for further BTC growth, given its current key support and resistance levels. A breakthrough above $101,000 would open the path to new highs, while an inability to stay above the $90,000 mark could trigger short-term bearish sentiment.

If Bitcoin breaks the resistance level of $99,470, it will trigger a new buying impulse, pushing its price back above the round $100,000 level. However, in the case of a prolonged correction and increasing selling pressure, BTC could fall below the support level of $94,660.

According to analysts, Bitcoin is entering a crucial phase. Its further dynamics will be determined by current support and resistance levels, as well as financial inflows from market participants.

According to the online analytical platform IntoTheBlock, the net inflow of BTC to crypto exchanges over the past week amounted to $1.4 billion. However, this flow of funds could dry up if the global economic and political situation worsens. Currently, among Bitcoin holders, there is a sense of indecision and tension, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

The main factor behind the recent sharp inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchanges was the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Previously, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became a powerful driver for BTC growth at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. However, last week brought disappointments for crypto funds.

According to data from SosoValue, the net outflow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week amounted to $651.83 million. This is the largest weekly outflow recorded from spot Bitcoin ETFs since the first week of September 2024. Experts believe this trend is due to some institutional investors selling Bitcoin either to take profits or in response to ongoing uncertainty following the sharp drop in BTC prices in early February.

Nevertheless, the first cryptocurrency remains focused on further growth. Among Bitcoin holders, there is an optimistic sentiment. The current situation supports the flagship asset, which, under any circumstances, is trying to stay afloat.

Charot FXMart · Guru

OPEC+ postpones plans to increase oil production again

OPEC+ is considering postponing the planned increase in oil production in April due to global market instability, despite US calls to lower prices. No final decision has been made yet, discussions are ongoing and may conclude in the coming weeks.

If production is not increased by 120,000 barrels per day, this will be the fourth postponement of plans to restore volumes that have been reduced since 2022. The alliance aims to achieve production growth of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026.

At a price of about $74 per barrel, many OPEC member countries are having difficulty covering budget expenditures. The Secretary General of the organization said that all decisions will be made taking into account the long-term consequences. The OPEC report also noted that the introduction of US trade duties could create an imbalance in the market and increase its volatility.

Initial plans to increase production, announced in June last year, have been postponed three times due to weak demand in China and rising supplies in America. According to the International Energy Agency, supply already exceeds demand by 450,000 barrels per day. Analysts' forecasts suggest a decline in oil prices to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Will Ethereum Rally? Next Target – $3000

According to analysts, the recent price action of Ethereum (ETH) indicates a shift toward a positive trend. Experts anticipate a potential rally in the second-largest cryptocurrency, with $3000 remaining a key target.

Over the past month, Ethereum has declined by 15.5%. Currently, the asset is attempting to break above critical resistance levels. If successful, ETH could surpass $3000 and recover recent losses.

On the evening of February 18, Ethereum was trading at $2698, marking a 2.3% decline over the past 24 hours. The following morning, ETH opened higher, reaching $2674 but remaining below key resistance. At present, Ethereum is holding above the $2654 support level, with the next significant resistance at $2793. A break above this level would pave the way for a rally toward $3000 and beyond.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
In an optimistic scenario, Ethereum could turn $2793 into new support, allowing for further growth toward the next resistance level at $3303. Such a sharp increase would boost investor confidence and accelerate the altcoin rally, according to analysts.

However, if Ethereum fails to break through $2793, consolidation will likely continue. Under worsening market conditions, ETH could face a sharp decline, potentially dropping to $2546 or lower, putting the bullish outlook in jeopardy and delaying the uptrend indefinitely.

Currently, assets like Bitcoin are under downward pressure, yet Ethereum has managed to hold its ground. The second-largest cryptocurrency has shown slight positive momentum, briefly surpassing $2700. Given this price movement, many analysts believe Ethereum is gaining momentum for a potential breakout.

Key Support Levels and Institutional Interest
Crypto analyst Ali identifies $2425 as a critical support level, highlighting it as a key accumulation zone for 10.33 million wallets holding 62.43 million ETH.

Market intelligence firm Santiment has also observed a strong performance from Ethereum. Analysts note that ETH has outperformed many altcoins this week, attributing this to increased transfers from exchanges to cold wallets, which often signals long-term accumulation. The firm believes Ethereum's growth is largely driven by renewed interest from the crypto community.

Despite lagging behind other leading assets, Ethereum continues to attract investors' attention. As market conditions improve, analysts expect ETH to recover, potentially surpassing last week's low and climbing back to $3000 and beyond.

Long-Term Outlook: Could Ethereum Rebound by 72%?
Many crypto strategists remain optimistic about Ethereum's trajectory. Crypto analyst Javon Marks suggests that ETH is emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase, with the potential to recover by 72% or more, returning to its all-time highs. Such a move could trigger a broader bullish wave across the altcoin market, reinforcing Ethereum's position as the leading altcoin.

In February 2025, spot Ethereum ETFs attracted significant institutional investments, totaling 145,000 ETH worth over $387 million. Compared to January 2025, capital inflows increased sevenfold, signaling growing institutional interest in Ethereum. If this trend continues, ETH is likely to challenge key resistance levels, paving the way for new all-time highs in the near future.

Charot FXMart · Guru

UK inflation changes interest rate expectations

Traders have revised down their expectations for the Bank of England's key interest rate after an unexpected rise in inflation in the country, reducing their confidence in two possible cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.

Now market participants expect to reduce the rate by only 49 bps by the end of the year. Last week, the probability that three more cuts of 25 bps would be made was estimated at 50%.

According to the latest data, consumer prices in the UK increased by 3% YoY in January, indicating an increase in inflation compared with the December level of 2.5% and was the highest since March.

During trading, the yield on ten-year UK government bonds increased by 5.1 bps, reaching 4.612%, the highest level since January 29. The pound sterling weakened against the dollar by 0.25%, reaching around $1.2582.

In early February, the Bank of England lowered its base interest rate by 25 bps, reducing it from 4.75% to 4.5%. At the same time, two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee favored a more significant reduction of 50 bps.

Charot FXMart · Guru

German elections led to a decline on European stock exchanges

European stock indexes are showing mostly negative dynamics against the background of the early elections to the German Bundestag. The exception was the German DAX index, which shows growth.

The British FTSE 100 recorded a slight decrease of 0.01%, reaching 8,658.25 points. The French CAC 40 dropped 0.31% to 8,129.46 points. At the same time, the German DAX rose by 0.54%, reaching the level of 22,385.15 points.

The Bundestag elections on Sunday attracted considerable attention. According to the results of the full vote count in 299 districts, the CDU/CSU bloc received 26.8% of the vote, taking first place. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party took the second position with 20.8%. The Social Democrats (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, came in third place with a score of 16.4%.

The Green party received the support of 11.6% of voters, while the Leftists collected 8.8% of the vote. The new Sarah Wagenknecht Union for Reason and Justice party failed to overcome the necessary barrier, gaining 4.972%. The FDP, which was previously part of the government coalition, also remained outside the Bundestag. Its result was only 4.3%.

Overall, the election results were received quite positively by the markets, despite lingering concerns about possible economic decisions by the new government in the current fiscal situation.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Global debt reached a record $318 trillion

Global debt increased by $7 trillion in 2024, reaching a record $318 trillion, according to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF). This was the first increase in the debt-to-global GDP ratio in four years, due to a slowdown in economic growth. The highest borrowing levels will remain in the USA, France, China, India and Brazil.

The IIF focuses on the risks associated with the actions of «bond activists» – investors seeking to reduce budget deficits and debt burden through higher interest rates. The report highlights that fiscal issues are particularly relevant for countries with polarized political systems.

In the US, markets have been reacting calmly so far, thanks to economic activity and the status of Treasury bonds as a reliable asset. However, other countries may face serious difficulties.

The growth rate of debt has slowed compared to 2023, when the increase was $16 trillion. The IIF predicts a further decline in borrowing due to global economic instability and high credit costs, which will curb demand for them in the private sector.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Bloomberg: the ruble has become the best currency on the world market

Since the beginning of the year, the Russian ruble has strengthened by 15% against the dollar, making it the most successful currency in the world. This is due to the growing interest in Russian assets, according to Bloomberg analysts. According to experts, the excitement around these assets arose against the background of the negotiations between Moscow and Washington.

On February 18, representatives of Russia and the United States met in Riyadh, following which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced an agreement to speed up the appointment of ambassadors and eliminate existing barriers in the work of Russian diplomatic missions.

Yesterday, closed-door negotiations between Russia and the United States ended in Istanbul, where issues related to the establishment of embassies were discussed. The parties agreed to hold a new meeting in the near future, and the State Department noted that the talks with the Russian delegation had been productive.

On Friday, the USD/RUB exchange rate increased by about 0.5%, approaching the level of 88 rubles. This week, quotes reached a low on August 4 at 85.37 rubles, after which they began to recover for the third day in a row against the background of the general strengthening of the dollar.

The US dollar index has continued to rise since Wednesday, returning above the 107.00 mark in anticipation of important data on PCE inflation in the United States, which may affect the Fed's interest rate forecasts. Additional support for the US currency is provided by Trump's new tariff threats against Canada, Mexico and China.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The ECB is on the verge of completing the rate cut cycle: disagreements are growing

The ECB is nearing the end of its interest rate reduction cycle, which is causing increased disagreement among its members. The borrowing rate is close to a neutral level, and the threat of tariffs from US President Donald Trump and rising defense spending are adding to the uncertainty.

The planned reduction of the deposit rate to 2.5% on Thursday, March 6, is likely to be the last decision reached unanimously. There is already a debate within the ECB about further steps, their pace and scale. The reason for the dispute is the risk that additional rate cuts may lose their effectiveness in supporting the weak eurozone economy. Some members warn of the consequences of excessive weakening.

Additionally, the economic prospects of the region may worsen due to US trade tariffs. However, a potential peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, despite its current improbability, could be a key factor in improving the situation in the eurozone.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Donald Trump may appear on a new $100 banknote

Brandon Gill, a Republican from Texas, intends to submit to Congress a bill envisaging the issuance of a new $100 banknote. Instead of the usual image of one of the founding fathers of the United States, Benjamin Franklin, a portrait of the current US President, Donald Trump, should appear on this bill.

In an interview with an American TV channel, Gill explained that the placement of Trump's portrait on the banknote would be a symbolic act of recognition of his achievements in the coming four years. The document accompanying the initiative states that starting from January 1, 2029, $100 banknotes should be issued exclusively with the image of Donald John Trump. Moreover, by the end of 2026, the Ministry of Finance is required to submit to the public a preliminary design of the new banknote.

The bill was named the «Golden Age Act of 2025», reflecting the initiator's desire to emphasize the importance of the period associated with the Trump presidency.

Earlier, a number of other Republicans also took initiatives to create new banknotes with the image of Donald Trump. So, in February, Congressman Joe Wilson from South Carolina proposed the development of a $250 bill. And in June 2024, Arizona representative Paul Gosar came up with the idea of issuing a $500 banknote, which should also feature a portrait of the former president.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil is recovering after the collapse to the lows of 2021

Oil quotes showed cautious growth on Thursday after a 4-day collapse that sent prices to multi-year lows.

Brent futures for May delivery rose to $69.80 per barrel, while April WTI contracts reached $66.81. The previous trades were the worst for Brent since December 2021 – the asset lost 6.5%, while WTI dropped 5.8% to its lowest levels since May 2023.

The decline in prices intensified after the introduction of US duties on Canadian and Mexican energy resources, which coincided with OPEC+'s decision to raise production quotas for the first time since 2022. The partial softening of Washington's position, which exempted automakers from 25% tariffs, temporarily stabilized the situation. According to insiders, the administration is also considering the abolition of 10% tariffs on Canadian energy.

Market risks are intensifying against the backdrop of rising commercial stocks in the United States. According to the latest data, their volume increased by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million, which was ten times higher than analysts' forecasts. The decrease in gasoline and distillate stocks is solely due to the growth of export supplies.

Experts emphasize the double pressure on the market: trade restrictions threaten to reduce global demand, and OPEC+'s decision to increase production creates risks of oversupply. Thus, these factors form a stable bearish sentiment among investors.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The US Treasury is considering the purchase of bitcoin

The US Treasury Department is exploring the possibility of buying cryptocurrencies for a strategic reserve, starting with bitcoin. This was announced by the head of the department Scott Bassett. The preparation of a discussion on these innovations coincides with a planned meeting of industry representatives with President Donald Trump at the White House.

Bessent clarified that at first, the reserve will be formed at the expense of confiscated digital assets. Subsequently, it is planned to explore additional mechanisms for further replenishment of such stocks.

The minister noted that the initial focus will be on Bitcoin, but the long-term goal is to create a universal cryptocurrency reserve. This suggests that other digital assets may be added to it in the future, underscoring the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. economy and finance.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Coffee market crisis: Arabica rose in price by 70%

The global coffee trade is experiencing a severe crisis caused by a sharp jump in the price of coffee beans. This provoked a decrease in the volume of purchases from retailers.

At the annual convention of the American National Coffee Association, participants expressed growing concern about the rising cost of Arabica coffee, which has recently increased by 70%. The main reasons for this trend were a reduction in production and limited demand.

Some companies operating in the industry were on the verge of bankruptcy, while others reported forced production cuts. Despite this difficult situation, analysts suggest that by the end of the year, the cost of arabica beans may decrease by 30%.

This is due to the increase in coffee production in Brazil, despite the continued high cost. However, for a number of sellers, the current situation remains extremely uncertain due to market instability and unpredictable factors.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The U.S. Dollar Is Preparing for Growth

After a recent surge in the euro, pound, and several other risk assets, the U.S. dollar has recovered some of its losses. The likelihood of further strengthening of the dollar has increased significantly after President Donald Trump downplayed the recent sharp decline in the U.S. stock market. This market turmoil was caused by concerns that his tariff policy might push the world's largest economy into a recession. However, Trump stated that he does not anticipate a recession in the U.S. Additionally, today's U.S. inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve's position on potential interest rate cuts.

Yesterday, during a meeting with representatives from several major American companies, Trump expressed his commitment to reviving the U.S. economy. "I see no issues with the economy. I believe this country will thrive," he stated on Tuesday at the White House. He acknowledged that markets experience fluctuations but emphasized that the key focus should be on guiding the country onto a new path.

Trump's comments came amid three weeks of volatility in the U.S. stock market and the dollar's weakness against several risk-sensitive currencies.

On Tuesday, stocks fell due to new tariff threats against Canada, the U.S.'s largest trading partner. This action led to a 10% decline in the S&P 500 index from its February high before buyers stopped the drop. Later, Trump signaled that he would ease the previously announced 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum for Canada, which helped further limit losses.

The sharp declines in recent weeks followed the president's and administration officials' warnings that the U.S. economy could face difficulties as they use tariffs to rebalance trade flows while implementing deep spending cuts and federal workforce reductions. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump even refused to rule out the possibility of a recession.

It is worth noting that Trump previously viewed the stock market as validation of his economic policies, but in recent weeks, he has significantly downplayed its importance. He reiterated this stance in yesterday's speech. "No, it doesn't concern me," Trump said when asked about market volatility. "I think some people will make great deals by buying stocks and bonds. I think we are going to have an economy that is a real economy, not a fake one."

Trump's words appear to have positively impacted both the stock market and the U.S. dollar. Notably, today's U.S. inflation data will be released. If another wave of price pressure emerges, the Fed will likely abandon its near-term plans to cut interest rates, which would support the dollar against several risk-sensitive assets.

However, markets are pricing in different scenarios. If inflation exceeds expectations, we will likely see dollar strength and a decline in stock indices, as investors will reassess monetary policy expectations and anticipate more aggressive action from the Fed. On the other hand, moderate inflation data could trigger a rally in equities, as market participants would see it as a signal for the Fed to ease policy soon. However, excessively weak figures could raise concerns about slowing economic growth.

In any case, today's data will be crucial in shaping market trends in the coming weeks. Traders should follow the news closely and be prepared for volatility.

In the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, it is essential for buyers to reclaim the 1.0950 level. Only after achieving this can they aim for a test of 1.0980. If successful, a further push toward 1.1010 is possible; however, this may be challenging without strong support from major market players. The ultimate target remains the 1.1050 high. If the pair declines, I anticipate significant buying interest around the 1.0890 level. Should there be insufficient support at that point, it would be prudent to wait for a test of the 1.0840 low or to consider opening long positions near 1.0800.

As for the current technical outlook of GBP/USD, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.2960. Only after surpassing this level can they target 1.3010, but moving beyond this point will become increasingly difficult. The ultimate aim is the 1.3040 area. On the other hand, if the pair declines, sellers will try to take control at 1.2915. A successful drop below this level would significantly undermine bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.2875, with the potential to reach as low as 1.2840.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Copper jumped to 5-month highs after news from China

Copper is trading near its highest levels in the last five months following China's announcement of measures to boost consumption.

Over the weekend, the Chinese authorities presented a special plan aimed at increasing demand. The country's copper consumption started growing faster at the beginning of the year, which helped offset the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese exporters. Retail sales increased by 4% in the first two months, exceeding analysts' forecasts.

The price of industrial metal has increased by about 12% this year due to market volatility caused by tariffs and a shortage of supplies from mines. However, the real estate sector in China, which is an important consumer of metals, has not yet reached the bottom: prices for new buildings continued to fall last month, despite the efforts of the authorities to support the market.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper rose 0.22%, reaching $9,817 per ton, after futures rose 0.7%. On Friday, prices reached $9,850, which was the highest value since October.

Aluminum also increased in price by 0.3%, amounting to $2,690 per ton, due to record performance of shares of China Hongqiao Group Ltd, one of the largest aluminum producers in the world. Aluminum production in China increased by 2.6% to 7.32 million tons in the first two months, which corresponds to a record high of 124,068 tons per day, indicating the stability of smelters, which are receiving high margins amid rising prices.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Gold has broken its historical record

For the first time in history, gold quotes overcame the psychological level of $3,000, reaching $3,004.95. During today's trading, the quotes dropped slightly to $2,994.3. This price jump is part of a long-term trend: gold has risen in price by 14% since the beginning of the year, and by 82% over the past five years.

Analysts single out the trade war between the United States and the EU as one of the main factors behind the record rise in prices for precious metals. The introduction of mutual duties, as well as threats from President Trump about 200% tariffs on European alcohol, contributed to the fact that investors began to look for a «safe haven» in gold.

In addition, the weakening of the dollar also played a role: the DXY index fell by 4% in a month amid concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, which made gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.

In addition, central banks, especially in developing countries, are increasing their gold reserves: according to a survey by the World Gold Council, 81% of respondents plan to increase their gold reserves next year.

Finally, the decline in interest in cryptocurrencies after the introduction of regulatory restrictions also contributed to the influx of investments in gold. Between February 18 and February 21, 2025, gold ETFs recorded significant inflows of $5.2 billion amid geopolitical instability and economic risks.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Investors are refocusing: Indian market loses $1 trillion

International investors are actively leaving the Indian stock market, turning their attention to Chinese assets. Over the past six months, Indian stocks have lost 13% of their value, reducing their market capitalization by $1 trillion.

The main reasons were high inflation and rising interest rates. At the same time, China is attracting capital thanks to promises of stimulus measures: the Hang Seng index has grown by 36% since September, boosted by expectations in the field of AI and the success of the startup DeepSeek.

Foreign investors have withdrawn about $29 billion from the Indian market, a record for six months. These funds have flowed into China, which attracts confident prospects for economic recovery. As a result, China's share in the portfolio of the British Aubrey Capital Management exceeded India's share for the first time in two years.

Major players such as Morgan Stanley and Fidelity International are still interested in India, but are gradually reducing their investments. According to Nitin Mathura from Fidelity, the company has become more cautious and slightly reduced the share of Indian assets. The Chinese stock market, due to its cheapness and expected growth, has become an attractive alternative against the backdrop of the US-China trade war.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The Fed kept the rate at 4.25-4.5%

Following the meeting on March 19, the US Federal Reserve maintained its base rate at 4.25-4.5% per annum. According to the regulator, the economy is showing stable growth, the unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market remains stable. Inflation is still exceeding the target, although it has slowed down.

Starting in April, the Fed will begin reducing the amount of government bonds on its balance sheet from $25 billion to $5 billion, aiming to bring inflation to 2%. At the December meeting last year, the rate was reduced by 25 bps. In January, US President Donald Trump announced the need for an immediate reduction in interest rates.

In February, the consumer price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year and by 0.2% compared to January, when the annual rate was 3%. Experts predict an acceleration of inflation due to the current import duties, which may have an impact on the country's economy.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Fed's actions to keep BTC from falling? BTC seeks stability

Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy—particularly its decision to hold interest rates steady and slow down quantitative tightening (QT)—could provide meaningful support for Bitcoin. According to this view, the world's largest cryptocurrency no longer needs to fear hitting rock bottom. But not everyone agrees with that assessment.

On Wednesday, March 19, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, citing ongoing economic uncertainty. The news sparked a slight uptick across major crypto markets.

However, following the decision, Bitcoin slipped 1.8% to $84,400. By Friday, March 21, BTC was trading at $84,150, remaining within a tight range.

Fed holds rates, hints at cuts – what does it mean for markets?

While many market participants anticipated the Fed's decision, hopes were high for a more dovish tone and rate cuts beginning in 2025. In its statement, the Fed suggested it expects to lower rates twice by the end of the year.

The Fed emphasized in its statement:

-The US economy continues to grow.
-Unemployment remains low and stable.
-Inflation is still moderately high.
-The monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion.
-The cap on mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion.

However, the Fed also noted that uncertainty in the economic outlook had increased, prompting it to monitor risks closely. Starting in April, the Fed will ease the pace of balance sheet reduction.

The monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion.
The cap on mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion.
This effectively softens QT and signals a possible shift toward more accommodative policy. Analysts now widely expect two rate cuts by year-end.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argues that a slowdown in QT will support Bitcoin. With the Fed scaling back Treasury runoff starting in April, Hayes believes that QT is essentially over, a move that could ease liquidity pressures and benefit risky assets, including crypto.

However, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of ITC Crypto, disagrees. He contends that QT isn't over in principle and that the Fed is merely slowing the pace of liquidity withdrawal—from $60 billion to $40 billion per month.

How are markets reacting?

Even though rates remained unchanged, expectations for cuts have risen. Analysts now see a 16% chance of a rate cut in May and more than 50% in June.

The S&P 500, however, continues to face headwinds amid ongoing trade tensions. Nick Pakrin, an analyst at The Coin Bureau, noted that investors were hoping for a more accommodative policy, although the Federal Reserve did not appear to be in a hurry to restart its monetary stimulus measures.

Experts point out that the Fed typically refrains from aggressive stimulus until rates approach zero. For now, any increase in global liquidity may come more from China and Europe than the US.

Trump pressures the Fed; Powell stays the course

President Donald Trump has spent months pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, but Powell has held firm.

Nathan Cox, CIO at Two Prime Digital Assets, said that while Trump's trade wars were contributing to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve remained focused on macroeconomic data rather than political noise coming from the White House.

Should the Fed commit to easing, crypto markets could respond swiftly. "Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025," research firm Bernstein predicts. "But if economic instability worsens, that rally could be delayed until 2026."

According to data from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, sentiment in the Bitcoin market has dropped to levels not seen since January 2023. The company's Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Index fell to just 20 points—the lowest reading in two years and well below the threshold needed to sustain upward momentum.

CryptoQuant warned that the deteriorating macroeconomic and cryptocurrency environment was lowering the chances of a sustained Bitcoin rally in the near future.

Historically, Bitcoin has needed a sentiment score above 60 to support major price increases. Prolonged periods below 40 have typically aligned with bear markets. If the index remains under 40 for an extended time, it could signal a deeper downturn.

Survey data from forecasting network MYRIAD suggests that 68% of respondents expect Bitcoin to stay above $83,000 through next week—but anticipate a pullback afterward.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Financial wars: oil, gas, and sanctions in great power game

In the world of finance, every day is a battle for market dominance. Just as traders celebrate rising prices, the tides can turn in an instant. On Friday, natural gas futures surged, giving bulls something to cheer about, while crude oil failed to deliver a similar performance.

Once again, the New York Mercantile Exchange became the stage for sharp market moves. April futures on natural gas reminded traders of their potential, rising 0.48% to reach $3.99 per million BTUs. Although the session's high fell short of expectations, solid support at $3.866 and resistance at $4.259 reinforced confidence that the market had not made its final move yet.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index—measuring the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—also emerged as a winner. At the time of writing, the index was up 0.28%, reaching 103.79. For many traders, moves in the dollar index serve as a reliable signal: when the dollar strengthens, commodities like oil and gas tend to face pressure. But such conditions often create strategic entry points for savvy market participants.

WTI crude oil did not share the same momentum. On the NYMEX, May WTI futures slipped 0.40% to $68.34 per barrel. The European session added to the gloom, dragging the price down a further 0.07% to $68.02. Key support and resistance were holding at $66.09 and $68.61, respectively.

Brent futures traded on ICE were also under pressure, down 0.19% to $71.86 per barrel.

On Thursday, Washington added fuel to the fire by announcing fresh sanctions against China-bound Iranian oil shipments. The latest measures targeted independent refinery Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical and several vessels supplying Iranian crude to China. It marked the fourth wave of sanctions since February, when the US renewed its maximum pressure campaign against Tehran.

Due to increased shipping restrictions, Iranian oil is now reaching China via more complex and expensive routes. But Chinese traders appear largely unfazed. According to local sources, companies are simply reorganizing logistics and continuing to import.

February was a particularly strong month for Iran: Chinese imports of Iranian oil hit 1.43 million barrels per day, up sharply from 898,000 in January. Much of this oil, notably, is officially labeled as Malaysian crude, a testament to the creativity of global trade networks.

Throughout February and March, the US ramped up sanctions on Iran and Russia, with a clear focus on energy exports. While the sanctions aim to curb supply, they may also create trading opportunities for market participants willing to navigate the risks.

On February 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order reinstating the maximum pressure policy on Iran. Just three weeks later, on February 24, another round of sanctions was announced blacklisting 30 individuals and tankers linked to Iran's oil sector. Then, on March 13, the list grew again with 13 more tankers and 18 additional companies and individuals added.

Yet Iran's oil production has proven resilient. Output in February remained steady at 4.8 million barrels per day, the same as January. This is a notable jump from 3.7 million barrels in January 2023, suggesting Iran has found ways to sidestep US restrictions.

The situation with Russian energy exports is also intensifying. Until March 12, foreign companies were allowed to purchase Russian oil and gas via sanctioned banks like Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, and Sovcombank. These transactions were enabled by a renewable general license that had been extended every two months. However, this time, the US chose not to renew the license.

Analysts, including those at CBS, do not expect the new measures to significantly impact Iranian or Russian oil exports in the short term. However, the political tension from Washington may lend support to oil prices. According to CBS estimates, ending the license could boost oil prices by $5 per barrel. Still, Brent saw only a modest increase between March 12 and 20, inching up from $70.9 to $71.1.

Should the US eventually ease restrictions on Russia's financial sector, payment issues related to Russian energy could become a thing of the past. But for now, that scenario remains a distant possibility.

Despite seemingly stable output figures, the oil market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Even modest price moves could open doors for long-term trading strategies.

Charot FXMart · Guru

«Bull Trap»: Bitcoin market remains under pressure

Bitcoin's recent surge, which has allowed it to reach a two-week high, may be short-lived due to the ongoing market uncertainty that is holding back investors. The lack of confident momentum, low trading volumes and macroeconomic tensions create the risk of a «bull trap» – a situation where the market remains without a clear direction.

Analysts identify factors that continue to negatively affect bitcoin: increased tariff tensions, inflationary threats, and geopolitical instability. They also warn that the market is particularly fragile right now: volumes are low, retail investor activity is minimal, and major players are refraining from action, which indicates hidden risks.

In March, bitcoin fluctuates in the range of $76-$95 thousand. The BTC financing ratio, reflecting the difference between spot and futures prices, has turned negative, indicating traders' unwillingness to overpay for long positions. In addition, the rates for borrowing stablecoins such as USDT and USDC on the Aave platform dropped to 4%, demonstrating a decrease in risk tolerance.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Historical record: the price of gold exceeded $3100

Gold has set a new historical record amid the introduction of new US tariffs, which have exacerbated fears of a global trade war. These circumstances have increased the demand for the metal, which is a protective asset in the face of economic uncertainty.

Since the start of trading, the spot price of gold has increased by 0.36%, reaching $3067 per ounce, and during the session it updated the record to $3111. During the week, the metal rose by 2%, continuing to rise for the fourth week in a row.

Experts attribute the increase to uncertainty around tariffs, a likely reduction in interest rates, geopolitical conflicts and the purchase of gold by central banks. Analysts emphasize that the US trade policy and the slowdown in the global economy are playing into the hands of the yellow metal.

An additional factor was the tariffs, which are due to take effect on April 2 and may increase inflation, slow down economic growth and exacerbate trade disputes. Experts continue to predict a bullish trend for gold, which retains a strong position against the backdrop of macroeconomic instability.