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Charot FXMart · Guru

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Charot FXMart · Guru

February 6. Oil has stabilized after a sharp drop last week

At the end of last week, oil prices showed a sharp drop from the level of $84 per barrel to $79.70. On Monday, Brent managed to stabilize, settling within the narrow sideways range of $80.00-$80.30 per barrel.

North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: the current quote of the asset is $73.60 per barrel. Last Friday, WTI was trading at $77.75. At the end of last week, Brent fell by 7.5%, WTI – by 7.9%.

Pressure on the market was exerted by the weakening of investor optimism about the growth rate of demand in China after the lifting of anti-bullying restrictions, as well as strong data on the labor market of the United States. According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by 517 thousand, which is significantly higher than the forecast of 187 thousand and December growth of 260 thousand.

At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1969 (3.4%). Data from the US Ministry of Labor showed that the Federal Reserve System still has room for maneuver in terms of tightening monetary policy.

Additional pressure on oil quotes was exerted by the statement of the head of the International Energy Agency that the economic recovery in China after the rejection of strict quarantine measures may be more powerful than expected. According to the IEA forecast, the Chinese economy will account for about half of the growth in oil demand this year.

It is also worth recalling that on February 5, the decision of the European Union and the G7 to impose an embargo on the import of petroleum products from Russia came into force. Market participants are closely monitoring the consequences of these measures.

Charot FXMart · Guru

February 8. The oil market is on the rise in the middle of the week

Oil quotes accelerated growth on Wednesday amid hopes for a recovery in demand in China and fears of supply disruptions due to earthquakes in Turkey.

In addition, risky assets, including oil, were supported by statements made yesterday by the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, which turned out to be not as «hawkish» as the market expected.

The current price of Brent crude oil is $84.80 per barrel. Yesterday, the asset quotes were located at $81.60 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $78.30 after yesterday's decline to $74.80 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market is provided by the words of the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, that the recovery of China's economy may proceed at a more active pace than expected. And this, in turn, will lead to a global increase in demand for oil and natural gas.

Today, data from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country will have an impact on the market. Analysts predict an increase in oil reserves by about 2.5 million barrels. Yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a reduction in reserves in the United States by 2.18 million barrels per week.

Charot FXMart · Guru

February 15. The Floki token rate jumped by 46% after Elon Musk's tweet

The Floki token (FLOKI) exchange rate increased by 46% after the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, published photos of his Shiba Inu dog named Floki.

On February 15, the billionaire posted a photo of his pet on the social network and called him the new CEO of Twitter, noting that Floki is well versed in numbers. «The new CEO of Twitter is amazing,» the billionaire wrote.

As a result, Floki – the management token in the ecosystem of the same name, which includes the gaming metaverse, the NFT marketplace, the FlokiFi DeFi project and the educational crypto platform – has sharply jumped in price.

Other meme «dog» cryptocurrencies also reacted with a slight increase. Dogecoin has risen in price by 6% over the past day, Shiba Inu – by 4.5%.

Elon Musk announced that he will name his puppy Shiba inu Floki on June 25, 2021. Then the billionaire's tweet caused the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency quotes to rise by 9%. In December of the same year, after the billionaire published a photo of Floki, the value of the Santa Floki token increased by 4000%, but since then it has fallen to zero values.

Charot FXMart · Guru

March 1. Oil began to decline on signals of rising stocks in the US

On the first day of March, oil quotes began to decline after the release of data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on another increase in fuel reserves in the United States.

The price of Brent crude oil fell from the level of $84.10 to $82.70 per barrel. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: a decline to $76.20 after yesterday's growth to $77.65 per barrel.

According to API statistics, crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 6.2 million barrels last week. Today, we should pay attention to similar data from the US Department of Energy. Analysts assume that the official report will indicate an increase in reserves by about 500 thousand barrels.

Yesterday, oil showed strengthening amid optimism about the recovery of the Chinese economy. In particular, the Purchasing managers' Index (PMI) in the processing industry of China rose in February to 52.6 points (from 50.1 points a month earlier), reaching a record high since 2012. Analysts on average expected a more moderate increase, up to 50.5 points.

The PMI of the service sector in February rose to 56.3 points from 54.4 points in January. The indicator has updated the maximum since March 2021.

February 28. The IMF refused to ban cryptocurrencies

The International Monetary Fund intends to abandon the idea of a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. This was stated by the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva during her speech at the meeting of G20 finance ministers in Bangalore, India.

Instead of a ban, the fund plans to differentiate and regulate crypto assets. «We are in favor of regulating the world of digital money, and this is a top priority, despite the fact that there is still a lot of confusion in the classification of digital money,» Georgieva said.

To date, the IMF's first goal is to distinguish between government-backed digital currencies of central banks and publicly issued crypto assets and stablecoins.

The head of the fund also stated that fully secured stablecoins create a fairly good space for the economy, and unsecured crypto assets are speculative and high-risk assets that require more regulation. The IMF still believes that crypto assets cannot be legal tender, since they are not secured by anything.

Moreover, if states fail to develop a mechanism to combat money laundering through cryptocurrencies and protect investors, the IMF does not rule out a complete ban on the use of an innovative tool in the global economy.

Charot FXMart · Guru

March 6. Gold is declining in anticipation of the speech of the Fed’s head

On Monday, gold prices are mostly declining, moving away from the maximum in 2.5 weeks. Pressure on the precious metal is exerted by expectations of the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, which will take place later this week. Market participants hope to clarify the prospects of the central bank's monetary policy.

The current quote of gold paired with the dollar is $1856.45. During the day, the asset fell from the level of $1863 to $1854 per troy ounce. At the same time, the dollar index increased by 0.1%, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

In addition to Powell's speech, investors are waiting for Friday's data on the US labor market. At the end of the week, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report on the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector will be published. A weaker than expected indicator will indicate that the US Federal Reserve rate will not rise too rapidly, and this will support gold.

Spot silver prices declined to the level of $21.17, recovering during the day to the current level of $21.23 per ounce. Platinum fell by 1% to $968.09, and palladium fell in price by 1.8% to $1,426 per ounce.

Charot FXMart · Guru

March 17. Economists recorded a peak drop in oil amid banking turmoil

Analyzing the dynamics of oil prices in recent days, economists have come to the conclusion that oil has suffered the biggest losses in a week this year. The drop in raw materials is mainly due to significant shocks in the world markets in the banking sector.

Recall that on March 11, the 16th largest US bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was declared bankrupt. The bankruptcy of this major Silicon Valley bank was the second largest in U.S. history after Washington Mutual Bank, whose collapse in 2008 led to a drop in stock prices in Europe and the closure of another bank in the United States.

Today, futures for North American WTI crude oil fell below $68 per barrel. At the end of the week, the drop was about 10%. The current price of the asset is $67.17 per barrel. Brent oil is also showing a decline – to the level of $73.40 per barrel.

Market participants are waiting for a reaction to the current collapse in prices from OPEC+. However, there is an opinion that the cartel will not take any action until the price of Brent crude oil falls below $70 per barrel for a long period of time.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency predicts that the oil market will be in surplus in the first half of 2023, despite the reduction in oil production in Russia in March. The European Union expects that the average price of Brent crude oil this year will be $84.8 per barrel.

Charot FXMart · Guru

April 17. The oil market is unstable at the beginning of a new trading week

Oil quotes show high volatility at the beginning of the new trading week in the price range of $85.65-86.50 per barrel.

The current Brent quote is $85.67 per barrel, WTI oil is trading in the range of $81.70-82.60 per barrel. Last week, Brent rose by 1.4%, WTI – by 2.3%, and both types of oil rose in price for the fourth week in a row.

The market was supported by the forecast of the International Energy Agency published on Friday, according to which the supply deficit on the world market in the third quarter will amount to 2 million barrels per day. The IEA noted that another reduction in production by OPEC+ countries threatens a further decline in supply and an increase in oil prices at a time when inflationary pressure is already damaging consumers.

In the second quarter, the deficit will be 400 thousand b/d. Previously, the IEA expected demand to exceed supply only in the third quarter. The average deficit in 2023 is estimated at 800 thousand b/d.

At the same time, OPEC, which published its monthly forecast the day before the IEA, still expects an increase in oil demand in 2023 by 2.3 million barrels per day (up to 101.89 million b/d) – above the pre-Covid level.

Also today it became known that the countries of G7 intend to maintain the ceiling of prices for Russian oil at $60 per barrel.

Charot FXMart · Guru

April 24. Binance allowed deposits with Russian cards

The Binance crypto exchange has returned to users from Russia the opportunity to replenish deposits using Qiwi wallets and Russian bank cards.

The Binance support service states: «You can make a deposit on our platform using a Russian card via Qiwi. At the same time, all Visa, Mastercard and other cards issued in Russia are supported.»

Among the currencies that can be used to replenish the deposit, rubles, Turkish lira, British pounds, euros, Kazakhstani tenge, Australian dollar, Ukrainian hryvnia, Czech crown and a number of others are offered. At the same time, there is no US dollar.

Recall that in March last year, against the background of events in Ukraine, the crypto exchange announced the suspension of operations using Mastercard and Visa bank cards issued in Russia. In 2023, Binance also banned Russian citizens and persons residing in the country from making transactions with dollars and euros through the money transfer service between individuals (P2P) in connection with the tenth package of sanctions adopted by the EU.

Charot FXMart · Guru

May 5. Apple's profit in the first half of the year fell by 9%

The manufacturer of phones and smart devices Apple has presented a profit report in the first half of the 2022-2023 fiscal year, which ended on April 1.

The company's net profit decreased by 9% year-on-year and reached $54.158 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $3.41 compared to $3.62 a year earlier. The company's revenue for the reporting period increased by 4% to $211.99 billion.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2022-2023, Apple's net profit decreased by 3.4% to $24.16 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $1.52, the same as a year earlier. The company's revenue for the reporting period decreased by 2.5% to $94.836 billion.

At the same time, revenue from iPhone sales in the second quarter increased by 1.5% y/y and amounted to $51.334 billion, Mac – decreased by 31.3% to $7.4168 billion, iPad – by 12% to $6.67 billion.

Sales of devices in the Wearables, Home and Accessories segment (which includes Apple Watch and AirPods) showed a decrease of 0.6% to $8.757 billion, and sales of the Services division rose by 5.5% to $20.907 billion.

Charot FXMart · Guru

May 17. The pound remains under pressure after the speech of the head of the Bank of England

The British pound sterling has been showing a significant drop in recent days in a pair with the US dollar, falling to the level of 1.2422. On Wednesday, after a speech by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who said that the central bank expects price pressure to ease in April, the pound remains under pressure.

Speaking at the annual world conference at the UK Chamber of Commerce, Bailey said that if price pressures prove more sustainable, further policy tightening will be required. At the same time, he added that there were signs of some weakening of the labor market.

Yesterday, data on unemployment in the UK were published: it rose to 3.9%. However, the growth rate of wages, including bonuses, remained unchanged, and this forced market participants to moderate expectations for further rate increases.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2477. The EUR/GBP pair also shows a drop during the day – to the level of 0.8677.

The Bank of England began tightening monetary policy at the end of 2021. Since then, the British central bank has raised its key interest rate by 400 basis points in total. However, to date, market opinions regarding the next step of the central bank are divided.

Thus, the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting of the Bank of England by 25 basis points is 66%. Analysts note that the further steps of the regulator will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data, while the inflation report for April, which is expected next week, will be important.

Charot FXMart · Guru

May 30. Food inflation in the UK has fallen for the first time in two years

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), food inflation in Great Britain fell for the first time in two years from a record 15.7% in April to 15.4% in May. The last time the indicator decreased was in August 2021.

Analysts note that the reason for the decline was the fall in electricity prices and the cost of production costs.

According to the BRC, price inflation for canned food rose to 13.1% from 12.9% in April, and for perishable products – fell from 17.8% to 17.2%.

At the same time, the consumer price index presented by BRC increased by 0.2% compared to April – up to 9% – due to the low exchange rate of the pound, increased labor costs, as well as electricity bills for stores.

Earlier, the National Statistical Service of Great Britain reported that real incomes of the population continue to fall at the fastest pace in ten years against the background of the inflation rate exceeding the increase in wages. As a result of record inflation, there is a wave of strikes in the country – employees of railway companies, lawyers, airport employees, postmen and workers in other fields come out to protest.

Charot FXMart · Guru

June 16. Natural gas prices in Europe jumped by 30% due to the closure of the field

Natural gas prices in Europe have soared by 30% due to the closure of the largest Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This decision was made after a series of earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes.

Although a final decision has not yet been made, the official closure of the field is expected after a government meeting at the end of June. This deposit is the oldest in the country and it has been in operation for 60 years.

This news caused a significant increase in gas futures prices, and then prices stabilized and rose by 10%, reaching 42.16 euros per megawatt hour.

The closure of Groningen is due to frequent earthquakes caused by gas extraction, which have led to the destruction of thousands of homes in the region since the 1980s. Plans to close the field were accelerated after a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mark Rutte and accusations of an ineffective government response to the problems.

The Groningen field will operate at minimum levels until the final closure and about 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas will still be produced.

Charot FXMart · Guru

September 8. German inflation slowed to 6.4% in August

According to the final data of the German Federal Statistical Office, in August consumer prices that meet European Union standards increased by 6.4% compared to the same period last year.

Thus, inflation slowed down from 6.5% in July. The result corresponds to the preliminary assessment and forecasts of experts.

On a monthly basis, prices for consumer goods and services increased by 0.4%, after an increase of 0.5% in July.

Inflation, calculated only by German standards, also slowed down – in August the indicator fell to 6.1% y/y from 6.2% in July. This was the minimum growth in the last three months.

The cost of energy in Germany accelerated its growth to 8.3% from 5.7%. The cost of food increased by 9% (in July – by 11%).

Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, remained stable and amounted to 5.5% y/y in August, remaining at the level of the previous month.

Preliminary data on the dynamics of inflation in Germany in September will be published on September 28.

Charot FXMart · Guru

September 11. Oil market news

On Monday morning, oil prices remain stable in the area above $90 per barrel.

The current quotation of Brent crude oil is $90.30. The maximum reached at the end of last week is $90.83. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: the current price is $86.97 per barrel, Friday's maximum is $87.75.

These marks were the highest since November last year. Over the past week, prices for Brent rose by 2.4%, and for WTI – by 2.3%.

The current slight decline in prices is probably a technical correction. Although the oil market is still under pressure from concerns related to the slowdown in economic growth in China.

China returned to inflation in August, but the growth rate was slower than expected. Consumer prices (CPI index) in the country last month increased by 0.1% in annual terms, which was below the average analysts' expectations of 0.2%. In July, the decline was 0.3%.

This week, attention should be paid to the publication of OPEC's monthly report on the oil market, which is scheduled for Tuesday. And on Wednesday, the US Department of Energy will present a weekly report on crude oil reserves in the country.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The main events by the morning: March 21

The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%. Jerome Powell said that a rate hike could stifle the country's economy and budget due to rising public debt costs. At the same time, inflationary pressures are still too high to mitigate monetary policy.

The US dollar is getting cheaper after the Fed meeting, which did not bring surprises to the market. The Fed's forecasts for 2025 suggest only three rate cuts instead of the previously expected four, which somewhat reduces the prospects for the dollar and highlights uncertainty in the US economic future, including the risk of continued inflation.

There are more and more problems with the supply of Russian oil to India. Reliance, India's largest energy company, has stopped accepting Sovcomflot tankers with oil on board due to fears of secondary sanctions. The company requires a change of the carrier.

German companies are concerned that the EU is losing its attractiveness for doing business. More than half of the surveyed German entrepreneurs (56%) noted a decrease in the attractiveness of the EU as a business platform over the past 5 years, while only 7% of executives see the situation in a positive light. The main reasons were the growing bureaucracy and trade restrictions.

Japan is demonstrating a reduction in trade with Russia. In February, total exports from Japan to Russia decreased by 33.6%, while imports from Russia fell by 10.2%. Nevertheless, there is an increase in certain sectors: LNG supplies from Russia increased by 8%, fish and fish products – by 9%, Japanese motorcycles to Russia – by 13.2%.

The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to file a new antitrust lawsuit against Apple. This time, the company is accused of restricting access to iPhone hardware features. This case will be the third time in the last 14 years that the agency is suing the tech giant, which may be part of a broader Biden administration campaign against the dominance of large technology companies in the United States.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil prices are on the rise due to the situation in the Middle East

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday after the strongest weekly drop in seven months. Brent quotes rose to $83.70 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $79.00.

This came amid growing signs that recent cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas have not made significant progress. The media reported that the last round of negotiations ended without reaching an agreement. This happened after the Israeli strike on Rafah, which killed at least 10 people.

The ongoing conflict increases expectations of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, which may lead to a reduction in oil supplies from this region.

However, further growth in oil prices is limited by the prospect of weaker demand and reduced supplies this year. These factors also contributed to the sharp decline in oil prices last week. High interest rates and inflation are expected to remain factors putting pressure on the global economy this year, which could undermine oil demand.

Recent data on the growth of oil production in the United States to record levels and an increase in oil reserves have also affected oil prices, raising fears that OPEC and its allies may not extend production cuts until the end of June.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The markets of Europe and Asia have gone up after the publication of the CPI report in the USA

European futures, Asian stock indexes and regional currencies began to rise after the publication of a report on consumer inflation in the United States and strengthening hopes for an early Federal Reserve rate cut.

The report showed that core consumer inflation in the United States over the past year was at its lowest level in three years, which fueled hopes for a softer monetary policy by the Fed.

The dollar index fell to a one-month low as the dollar weakened against all major world currencies from the top 10. The Euro Stoxx 50 futures contract rose 0.3%, and Wall Street stock indexes reached new highs on Wednesday. Similar dynamics were observed in Asian markets.

Among Asian currencies, it is worth noting the growth of the Korean won, while the yen was trading at its highest level in the last week against the dollar.

The Australian dollar declined after the unemployment rate in the country in April did not meet analysts' expectations.

An analysis of the swap market shows that two Fed interest rate cuts are now expected in 2024, as opposed to one reduction expected earlier this year. The general data on core inflation gives the Fed an opportunity to consider an earlier rate cut, and the market is inclined to believe that this could happen as early as September this year.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The main events by the morning: May 21

The US Congress is concerned about the gradual abandonment of the dollar. Republican Thomas Massey said that countries are forced to abandon the American currency, including due to inflation. He is confident that other countries will start using alternative currencies, and the United States will have to rely only on the resources of its citizens.

China continues to get rid of American debt by selling a record amount of U.S. bonds in the first quarter of 2024. During this period, China sold bonds worth $53.3 billion, which is a historical record. Experts believe that the reason for this is the use of the dollar by the United States as a weapon. Contradictions arise, as users of the dollar see injustice in its use in economic conflicts.

The UN Security Council has not adopted a Russian draft resolution on the non-deployment of weapons in outer space. Seven countries voted for the draft, including Russia and China, while Switzerland abstained. Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, said that the rejection of the resolution proves the intention of the United States to militarize outer space.

France has supported the International Criminal Court's request for the arrest of Israeli officials and Hamas leaders. The ICC's demand became known yesterday. Washington rejected this demand, and President Biden said he saw no signs of genocide in the Gaza Strip.

Russians are less likely to repay mortgages ahead of schedule. In the first quarter of 2024, 432.7 billion rubles were spent on early repayment of mortgages, which is the lowest in the last four years. The reason for this is the high key rate, because of which citizens prefer to leave their excess funds in the bank at a high interest rate.

Charot FXMart · Guru

A new round of trade war – the EU intends to raise duties on cars from China

The European Union, following the United States, plans to increase duties on Chinese cars.

Last week, the United States significantly increased duties on some goods from China. It wasn't just cars that were hit. Tariffs for microchips were doubled to 50%, for batteries – from 7.5% to 25%, for solar panels – from zero to 25%. In turn, Europe is considering the possibility of imposing similar restrictions on Chinese goods.

The rapid development of affordable electric vehicle production in China is putting significant pressure on European brands. Due to the intensive supply of cars from China, they are postponing their plans to switch to electric vehicles, significantly lagging behind Chinese competitors in development.

Currently, the duty on Chinese cars in the EU is 10%. Analysts believe that it is necessary to increase this figure to at least 25%. Some experts believe that only tariffs above 55% will be able to change the situation.

Charot FXMart · Guru

India and Indonesia attract investors more than China

Analysts note the gradually growing contrast between India and Indonesia on the one hand and China on the other. The first two developing countries have a clear advantage over China due to the rapid population growth, especially among young people.

Experts note that stable population growth in these countries is becoming an increasingly important factor for investment decisions. They foresee a significant increase in infrastructure spending, which has a positive effect on the prospects of the economy. At the same time, China is facing rapid aging and population decline

In addition, India has the youngest population among major economies, which contributes to faster income growth. It is also worth noting that both India and Indonesia are holding national elections this year, which indicates the desire of these countries to become important economic centers.

All these factors create an optimistic mood among market investors, which leads to an increase in stock markets. For example, the Nifty index is already trading at historical highs and is expected to grow for the 9th year in a row, as well as the Jakarta composite index.

Structural reforms aimed at reducing bureaucracy and encouraging foreign investment are also yielding positive results. Robust structural reforms in India and Indonesia are contributing to the creation of sufficient jobs, which helps to take full advantage of the demographic boom.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Modi's election victory will support the growth of the rupee

The Indian rupee has gained the status of one of the most stable currencies in Asia this year, mainly due to the significant inflow of foreign currency into bonds denominated in rupees.

This positive trend may continue due to expectations of the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to promote economic policies conducive to the growth of the Indian economy. Voting is expected on June 4 after the completion of multi-stage elections in India, which began in April.

The rupee is expecting a significant strengthening in May and may even become the best currency of the year. The rupee is projected to peak at 82 rupees per 1 dollar by the end of 2024. However, risks may arise, including strict currency controls by the Reserve Bank of India in order to ensure the stability of the rupee and protect the country's export competitiveness.

Modi's election victory is seen as a favorable factor for the rupee, given the prosperity of the economy during his previous reign.

Foreign investors have already invested approximately $6 billion in bonds denominated in rupees before including Indian sovereign bonds in the emerging markets index from JPMorgan Chase & Co. in June.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Apple again became the most expensive company in the world

After the worldwide developers conference last Monday, Apple's plans to integrate artificial intelligence have increased expectations for updates to its new iPhone models. This led to an increase in the company's market capitalization to $3.285 trillion, overtaking Microsoft and returning Apple to the status of the most expensive company in the world.

The market capitalization increased after a three-day increase in the company's shares by 11%. Previously, Apple was in third place in terms of capitalization after NVIDIA Corporation. Apple's stock growth was driven by optimism and investor confidence that the company would benefit from the use of AI. Analysts predict that Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia will grow in leaps and bounds in the near future.

Meanwhile, Apple's revenue declined 4.3% in the second quarter of the fiscal year, marking the fifth decline in the last six quarters. However, the AI functionality provided by the Apple Intelligence system, according to experts, will create opportunities for a multi-year update cycle by quickly replacing older iPhone models.

Apple also recently announced a $110 billion share buyback plan.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Paris lost the title of Europe's largest stock market to London

Political turmoil in France has led to London once again becoming Europe's largest stock market, overtaking Paris.

President Emmanuel Macron's surprise announcement of early elections sparked a wave of unrest, leading to the loss of about $258 billion in market capitalization of French companies last week.

The largest French banks such as Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, which are significant holders of government debt, have lost more than 10% of their value. As a result, the total share price of French companies now stands at about $3.13 trillion, slightly behind the British with $3.18 trillion.

The CAC 40 index, which reached record highs a month ago, has now returned to the levels of the beginning of the year. At the same time, the FTSE 100 index in the UK reached record highs due to the growth of shares of export-oriented companies such as Shell and Unilever. Over the past three months, Paris has lagged significantly behind the Euro Stoxx 50 index, while shares of companies such as Rolls-Royce Holdings have contributed to London's growth.

Globally, the UK is now the sixth largest stock market.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The EU bans its companies from using the Russian payment system

As part of the 14th package of anti-Russian sanctions, the European Union banned its companies operating outside the Russian Federation from using the Bank of Russia's Financial Messaging System (SPFS).

SPFS, the Russian equivalent of SWIFT, provides the transmission of financial messages both inside and outside Russia. The use of SWIFT within the Russian Federation was banned by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in October 2023.

In a statement, the EU Council said: «Today's package significantly strengthens our financial sanctions by banning EU banks operating outside Russia from using the SPFS.» This also allows the EU to compile a list of non-Russian banks of third countries connected to the SPFS – these banks will be prohibited from doing business with EU operators.

In addition, the EU has imposed a ban on transactions with banks and suppliers of crypto assets in Russia and third countries that facilitate transactions supporting the Russian military-industrial base.

Recall that the SPFS was created in response to the first wave of anti-Russian sanctions in 2014. By the end of 2023, 556 organizations had become users of the SPFS, of which more than a quarter (159) non-residents from 20 countries made up the list. The Central Bank previously published a list of SPFS participants on its website, but hid it in April 2022 after a new wave of sanctions affected the largest Russian banks.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Bitcoin rises on the news of the assassination attempt on Trump

The bitcoin exchange rate is rising on Monday – market participants continue to evaluate the news about the assassination attempt on Donald Trump that occurred on Saturday.

According to CoinDesk, the current quote of the crypto asset is $62,603.50. Last Friday, the BTC/USD pair was trading near the level of $57 thousand. Overall, despite the 6.4% loss over the last month, bitcoin has grown by about 50% since the beginning of the year.

Donald Trump was injured at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, but later said he felt fine. Analysts believe that the assassination attempt could increase Trump's chances of winning the election.

«Trump is considered a supporter of cryptocurrency, and there is an opinion that his position in the election race has strengthened. Traders are looking for assets that will benefit if Trump returns to power,» said Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell brokerage.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The price of gold has approached $2,450

Gold prices rose in Asian trading on Monday, playing back some of the decline seen during most of July.

The price increase is due to expectations of a reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve System at the upcoming meeting. US inflation data released on Friday showed a slight slowdown, which strengthens the Fed's confidence in the possibility of lowering rates. The weakness of the dollar caused by these data also contributed to the rise in gold prices, making it more attractive to investors using other currencies.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2.395.31 per ounce, while futures for gold with a December maturity rose 0.5% to $2.449.2 per ounce. Traders are almost completely confident of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which favours gold, as it reduces the opportunity costs of investing in it.

Other precious metals rose along with gold: platinum futures rose 0.8% to $953.35 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.8% to $28,242 per ounce.

Copper also showed gains on Monday after heavy losses over the past month. The growth was triggered by expectations of new signals from China, the main importer of copper.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Brent fell to $78.40 per barrel

On Tuesday morning, oil prices continued to decline moderately after a sharp drop the day before. The current price of Brent oil is $78.36 per barrel, North American WTI oil is trading near $75.08. In yesterday's session, both brands ended in the red for the third week in a row.

Analysts note that oil prices have declined due to concerns about demand in China, the world's largest oil importer. Markets were shaken by a series of negative economic news from China: manufacturing activity in the country probably declined for the third month in a row in July.

The market's attention is also focused on the upcoming meeting of the Chinese Politburo, where decisions can be made on further support for economic policy. However, expectations from this event are low, as the Third Plenum, a key political meeting in mid-July, mostly confirmed current economic goals and failed to improve market sentiment.

In addition, oil fell by 2% after Israel announced that its response to Hezbollah's missile strike on the occupied Golan Heights would be thought out in such a way as to avoid dragging the Middle East into a full-scale conflict.

It also became known that weekly oil supplies from Russia fell to the lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Tomorrow, you should pay attention to the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. It is expected that it will show a reduction in oil reserves in the country by 3.9 million barrels. And if the reduction is greater than expected, it may support oil prices. On Monday, the US Department of Energy announced the purchase of 4.56 million barrels of oil for the strategic reserve.

Charot FXMart · Guru

World demand for gold decreased by 6%

In the second quarter of 2024, global demand for gold (excluding OTC transactions) decreased by 6% compared to the same period last year, reaching 929 tons, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

The drop in demand for jewelry was the main reason for the decline: demand fell by 19% to 391 tons, and demand from the jewelry industry decreased by 17% to 411 tons.

However, the decline in the jewelry market was partially offset by an increase in demand in other sectors. In particular, the technology sector showed an impressive 11% increase in gold consumption, to 81 tons, due to the use of gold in electronics, especially in chips for the rapidly developing field of artificial intelligence.

Central banks, seeking to protect and diversify their reserves, increased gold purchases by 6%, to 183 tons.

The supply of gold on the market increased by 4%, to 1,258 tons. Production turned out to be a record for the second quarter — 929 tons.

The oversupply of 329 tons was absorbed by the OTC market, which played a significant role in maintaining gold prices. Together with the demand from central banks, the OTC market has become a key driver of gold price growth.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Oil prices are rising on concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hamas

Oil prices rose during Asian trading on Thursday, continuing the sharp rise of the previous session. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the assassination of the Hamas leader in Iran has increased fears of a possible large-scale war in the region.

The oil market is reacting to an increase in risk premiums related to fears of revenge by Hamas for the assassination of the organization's leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, many believe Jerusalem is behind the attack. The rising tensions have raised fears that a full-scale war in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies from the region, which in turn could affect global markets.

Traders' attention is also focused on today's OPEC+ meeting, where information about oil production plans may be disclosed. According to media reports, no changes in the cartel's production volumes are expected, despite the recent decline in oil prices to almost two-month lows. Nevertheless, leading producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to remain cautious about further production cuts.

The current price of Brent oil is $81.60 per barrel. North American WTI oil is trading near $78.60. Oil quotes also received support after the publication of data on a significant decrease in oil reserves in the United States for the fifth week in a row, due to high demand for fuel during the summer period of active travel.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Bitcoin and Ether collapsed amid global economic concerns

On Monday, there was a sharp drop in the value of bitcoin amid a large-scale sale of high-risk assets.

According to CoinDesk, by noon Moscow time, the Bitcoin exchange rate had decreased by 10.8%, reaching $52,827. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has lost more than a fifth of its value, although it has still shown an increase of almost 26% since the beginning of the year.

Ethereum is also experiencing a significant drop, dropping 15.3% to $2,330, which is the biggest decline since 2021.

The Japanese stock market posted a record 12.4% drop, the highest since 1987. Futures for the US Nasdaq Composite index are also down 4.2%.

The reason for the massive sell-off of risky assets was growing concerns about a possible recession in the United States after the publication of disappointing economic data last week. Goldman Sachs analysts have increased the probability of an economic downturn in the United States in the coming year from 15% to 25%. Markets also expect that the Federal Reserve may hold an unscheduled meeting this week and cut the key rate by 0.25 percentage points with a 60% probability.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Gold is moving away from highs amid the growth of the stock market

The price of gold fell from near record levels during Asian trading on Tuesday. The recovery of stock markets led to a decrease in demand for reliable assets, although instability in the markets still supported relatively high prices for the precious metal.

Yesterday, gold soared to a historic high due to the collapse of stock markets caused by fears of a recession in the United States and expectations of lower interest rates.

December gold futures fell 0.3% to $2402.57 per ounce. At the beginning of the week, the spot price reached $2,460 per ounce.

On Tuesday, gold weakened slightly amid the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the stock market. Nevertheless, gold has maintained much of its recent growth as the prospect of lower interest rates continues to support interest in it.

The rise in gold prices has led to an increase in prices for other precious metals, but in recent sessions they have suffered significant losses, since their attractiveness as a "safe" asset is inferior to gold.

Silver futures fell 0.7% to $27.020 per ounce, and platinum futures fell to $918.85 per ounce. Copper prices fell 0.6% to $8,806.50 per tonne, and one-month futures fell almost 1% to $3,9660 per pound.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Brent rose above $77 per barrel

Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday, following a slight increase in the previous session.

On the London ICE Futures exchange, October futures for Brent crude oil rose in price to the level of $77.25 per barrel. September WTI crude futures rose to $73.71 per barrel.

Traders continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East, anticipating a possible Iranian attack on Israel after the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

«If the situation in the Middle East worsens and this affects oil supplies from the region, prices will quickly go up,» said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Traders are also concerned about the prospects for oil demand due to signals of slowing economic growth in China and the United States. Statistics released on Wednesday showed a slowdown in Chinese growth in July amid a larger-than-expected increase in imports.

Also today, the U.S. Department of Energy will present a weekly report on energy reserves. According to the American Petroleum Institute, published yesterday, oil reserves in the United States increased by 180 thousand barrels.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Brent rose above $77 per barrel

Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday, following a slight increase in the previous session.

On the London ICE Futures exchange, October futures for Brent crude oil rose in price to the level of $77.25 per barrel. September WTI crude futures rose to $73.71 per barrel.

Traders continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East, anticipating a possible Iranian attack on Israel after the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

«If the situation in the Middle East worsens and this affects oil supplies from the region, prices will quickly go up,» said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Traders are also concerned about the prospects for oil demand due to signals of slowing economic growth in China and the United States. Statistics released on Wednesday showed a slowdown in Chinese growth in July amid a larger-than-expected increase in imports.

Also today, the U.S. Department of Energy will present a weekly report on energy reserves. According to the American Petroleum Institute, published yesterday, oil reserves in the United States increased by 180 thousand barrels.

Charot FXMart · Guru

European stocks are losing ground amid uncertainty

European stocks resumed their decline after two days of gains, under pressure from mixed earnings reports and uncertainty about the economic development of the United States.

The iShares STOXX Europe 600 index fell 0.9%, rolling back from last Wednesday, which was the best day for the index since November. Real estate and technology stocks were under the most pressure, while telecommunications stocks rose slightly.

Siemens AG lost ground after forecasting revenue and profit growth below expectations, Zurich Insurance Group AG declined due to increased losses in the property insurance division. Among the leaders of the day were Enter PLC, which raised its forecast for the full year, and Allianz SE, which posted higher profit figures.

The beginning of August was unstable for European stocks due to concerns about the recession in the United States. Despite this, the overall picture of profit reporting looks relatively optimistic: earnings per share growth for the MSCI Europe index is 2.4%, higher than the forecast of 0.4%.

Despite the fact that experts do not expect sharp drops in the market, they advise investors to be careful due to geopolitical instability. Technical analysis indicates the possibility of short-term growth in European stocks, but trading will remain volatile until economic data signals a "soft landing" of the US economy.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The American labour market: optimism and anxiety

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that concerns about a worsening labour market situation were exaggerated. According to the Ministry of Labour, the number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 17 thousand to 233 thousand, which was the largest drop in the last 11 months. Experts had expected a more modest decline.

Despite the positive dynamics, the indicator remains above the average level of the current year. The average number of applications over the past four weeks has increased to 240.75 thousand, reaching an almost one-year high. The increase in the number of applications, which began in June, is partly due to temporary shutdowns of automobile plants and the effects of Hurricane Beryl in Texas.

Overall, the number of layoffs remains low, confirming data on a record low level of layoffs in June. However, the pace of growth in the labour market is slowing due to less aggressive hiring caused by the Fed's interest rate hike.

The Fed has kept the interest rate, but intends to lower it in September. Nevertheless, non-agricultural employment data for July showed a noticeable slowdown in job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which raised concerns about a possible deterioration in the labour market situation.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Brent rose above $80 per barrel

Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive auction due to concerns about possible supply disruptions amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, noted that geopolitical tensions could intensify at any moment, which would put additional pressure on price growth. Geopolitical risks are likely to remain a key factor influencing oil price trends.

The data published last week in the United States turned out to be better than forecasts, which reduced concerns about a possible recession in the country's economy. These data reinforced traders' confidence that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as next month, which in turn could boost fuel demand.

The current price of Brent crude oil is $80.30 per barrel. North American WTI oil is trading near the level of $77.70. Over the past week, Brent has risen by 3.7%, and WTI — by 4.5%, ending the first of five weeks in the «plus».

Charot FXMart · Guru

German companies continue to invest in China

German companies continue to invest heavily in China, despite government calls to diversify risks. According to the Bundesbank, Germany's direct investments in China in the first half of 2023 reached 7.3 billion euros, which is almost one and a half times more than in the whole of 2022.

Experts note that a significant part of investments is directed to reinvest profits earned in China. Last year, German businesses reinvested more than half of the 19 billion euros of profits earned in China.

Localization of production in China is becoming an increasingly popular strategy for German companies seeking to reduce risks in their supply chains. However, this strategy could have a negative impact on the German economy by reducing exports and creating dependence on the Chinese labor market.

The German government recommends that companies diversify their investments and sales markets, but does not call for a complete cessation of cooperation with China.

Despite this, major automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW continue to invest heavily in China. In the last five years, Germany has been the leader in terms of EU investments in China, which indicates the continued attractiveness of the Chinese market for German businesses.

Charot FXMart · Guru

JPMorgan: EM shares will benefit from the slowdown in the US economy

JPMorgan forecasts favorable prospects for emerging market (EM) stocks amid an expected slowdown in U.S. economic growth and lower interest rates in the second half of 2024. Analysts believe that these factors will have a positive impact on the comparative performance of EM shares due to differences in growth rates and interest rates.

Experts believe that adjusting expectations regarding rates and growth in the United States will lead to a higher valuation of EM shares in global investment strategies. However, they warn of risks, including economic downturns, market instability and the impact of the upcoming U.S. elections on international trade and investment risks.

The growth gap between EM countries and developed markets (DM) is expected to widen to 2.7% in 2024, compared with 2.5% in 2023. The Fed's rate cut may create opportunities for monetary policy easing in the EM.

Other factors boosting the attractiveness of EM stocks include limited investments in the sector, attractive prices, diversification strategies from U.S. stocks, and a weakening U.S. dollar.

The historically slowing but resilient U.S. economy is favorable for EM stocks. During periods of Fed rate cuts, EM stocks usually perform better: the average decline is 11% for EM, 15% for DM and 13% for the US.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The yuan is rising amid a weakening dollar

On Monday, the yuan showed the most significant growth in two weeks, reaching 7.1363 per dollar, which is 0.4% higher than the previous day. This increase, the largest since the beginning of August, is due to the weakening of the dollar and expectations of lower interest rates in the United States.

However, the yuan lost ground against the resurgent yen, falling 1% to 20.38 yen, which was the strongest drop since August 5. As a result, the yuan fell to 98.07 against a basket of trading partner currencies, the lowest level since January 15.

Traders are waiting for the announcement of the base rate on loans in China on Tuesday. The collapse of bank lending, falling housing prices and gloomy economic sentiment, according to analysts, will not allow the currency to grow significantly further.

The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds fell by 1.8 basis points to 2.17%, while the yield on similar benchmark U.S. government debt was 3.9%.

The 7-day repo rate for the yuan in the domestic market was 1.74%, and in the futures market, the 3-month yuan was quoted at 7.0695, 722 points higher than the spot rate. Three-month forward contracts on CNH were trading at 7.0682 per dollar. The People's Bank of China has set the average rate around which the yuan can trade in the 2% range at 7.1415 per dollar.

Charot FXMart · Guru

S&P 500: the forecast for 5600 points remains

Analysts maintained an optimistic outlook for the S&P 500 index, expecting it to rise to 5600 points by the end of the year. The strong result of the second quarter, when the profits of S&P 500 companies increased by 10.5% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 8.1%, became the basis for such a positive attitude.

Seven major technology companies contributed significantly to this growth, increasing earnings per share by 38%. It is important to note that the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies also showed positive profit growth, which is the first time in the last six quarters.

Despite the good performance, profit growth forecasts for the second half of the year were slightly adjusted down to 10% y/y. Analysts note the risks to the market, in particular, rising unemployment and the likelihood of a recession.

Nevertheless, they believe that reducing the dependence of the index's income on cyclical sectors may provide some stability. The consensus forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 coincides with analysts' estimate of $250, which supports the target for the S&P 500 at the end of the year.

Analysts have expressed doubts about the ambitious forecast for profit growth of 15% in 2025, offering a more cautious forecast in the area of high single-digit percentage growth rates. Despite these considerations, analysts remain positive about the market and confirm their year-end S&P 500 target at 5,600.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Chinese banks have increased assets by 7%

According to Xiao Yuanqi, Deputy head of the State Administration for Financial Supervision and Control of the People's Republic of China, the total assets of the Chinese banking sector at the end of July amounted to 423.8 trillion yuan ($59.4 billion), an increase of 7% compared to the same period last year.

Positive trends are also observed in the field of credit quality: the share of non-performing loans decreased by 8 basis points to 1.61%.

The equity capital adequacy ratio of banks in the first half of the year reached 15.53%, which indicates the high strength of the industry and its ability to withstand risks, Xinhua news agency reports.

Xiao Yuan qi stressed that the GUF will continue to support banks in optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities, as well as in finding new sources of profit growth to increase profitability.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Powell's performance was a turning point for gold

The gold market is once again reaching record highs, exceeding the mark of $2,560 per ounce. This upward movement in the market was provoked by a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, where he made it clear that the Fed is ready to lower interest rates.

Lower Treasury bond yields, a weaker dollar and increased investment in exchange-traded funds investing in gold (ETFs) create a favorable environment for gold prices to rise. These factors, which previously inhibited the growth of the value of gold, can now become a powerful incentive for it.

Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, notes that the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Fed was a turning point for gold. He emphasizes that previously everyone believed that the Fed would be the last to cut rates, but now the situation has changed.

This year, gold has shown impressive growth, setting new records and occupying one of the leading positions among the main commodities.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Research: 4 risks for the dollar dominance

Researchers from the Brookings Institution have identified several factors that can undermine the dominance of the dollar in global markets. Although the dollar remains the main reserve currency, its share in global reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 59% in 2024.

At the same time, the share of reserves in alternative currencies such as the Australian dollar, Swiss franc and Chinese yuan is growing.

One of the main threats to the dollar is the US sanctions, which have prompted Russia and China to actively seek de-dollarization. Russia is switching to payments in yuan and developing alternative payment systems, while China is promoting its yuan as a substitute for the dollar.

The growing U.S. government debt is also a concern for investors. A rapid increase in government spending and a decrease in the US credit rating may weaken confidence in the dollar and make it less attractive to holders of foreign exchange reserves.

The improvement of payment technologies is another factor threatening the dollar. New systems allow countries such as China and India to exchange their currencies directly, bypassing the dollar. This may reduce the demand for the dollar, which has traditionally been used in international settlements.

In addition, the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) increases competition for the dollar. China is actively developing its digital currency and payment systems, while the United States is still lagging behind in this area, which puts the dollar in a less favorable position.

Despite these risks, experts believe that the dollar will remain the dominant currency in the near future, since its competitors cannot yet replace it. However, attempts at de-dollarization can lead to economic problems for those who abandon the American currency.

Charot FXMart · Guru

The dollar is recovering after the fall

On Thursday, the US dollar recovered from its recent fall, rebounding from a 13-month low. The dollar index, which tracks the USD exchange rate against a basket of six other currencies, rose 0.2% to 101.182.

The recovery of the exchange rate is associated with an increase in demand for the dollar as a "safe currency" amid worsening geopolitical problems in the Middle East, as well as concerns about the resumption of trade disputes between China and the West.

However, the dollar is still under pressure due to the expected reduction in US interest rates next month. In August, the dollar fell by about 2.9%, which was the sharpest drop in the last nine months.

Preliminary GDP data showed the resilience of the American economy, fueling hopes for a soft landing. But the latest data also revealed a weakening of the labor market.

Data on the PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and is likely to affect interest rate forecasts.

Charot FXMart · Guru

China is changing the game: new challenges for the global economy

China, long considered the engine of the global economy, is now experiencing a decline in consumer confidence and spending cuts.

The problems of the real estate market, the weakness of the labor market and the fall in stock prices exacerbate the situation, reducing household well-being and leading to a decrease in confidence in the economy. As a result, the trend towards reducing consumer spending is strengthening, which is especially alarming, since China's economic growth is increasingly dependent on domestic consumption.

A weak labor market is a special factor that causes panic and encourages people to stick to conservative measures more. New savings are growing and spending is declining, creating a vicious circle of low confidence and an economically stagnant situation.

It is worth noting that the change in sentiment in China has negative consequences for the global economy. A decrease in import demand leads to a slowdown in global growth. An excess of goods creates deflationary risks, and the retail sales sector is experiencing serious difficulties.

Chinese consumers are becoming cautious, which negatively affects the financial results of the world's leading brands, especially those focused on the Chinese market. Instead of stimulating growth, the Chinese government pays great attention to regulation, preferring the sustainability of expansion.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Experts: Bitcoin and Ethereum have no future

The period of bitcoin's rapid growth seems to have come to an unexpected end. Many experts and investors are convinced that a further rise in BTC should not be expected. This opinion reflects the current pessimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The beginning of the year was marked by general euphoria, when memecoins were considered as a new investment opportunity, and some digital assets predicted an increase of 50 times. However, today, in the face of general skepticism, even moderate forecasts seem too optimistic.

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market has long been known: sharp ups are often replaced by collapses. However, despite the pessimistic forecasts, there is also a positive trend. Thus, Zürcher Cantonalbank, one of the largest banks in Switzerland, has provided its customers with the opportunity to trade and store bitcoin and Ethereum through mobile applications. This happened on September 4 in cooperation with Crypto Finance, regulated by FINMA.

The example of ZKB demonstrates that despite the current difficulties, the process of accepting cryptocurrencies in the financial world continues. In Switzerland, the attitude towards digital assets remains positive, which strengthens their position in the global market.

In general, although the short-term prospects may look disappointing, the long-term adoption of cryptocurrencies and the participation of traditional financial institutions in them indicate their significant potential and sustainability.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2%

The Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) has published final data on eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter. The eurozone economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 0.6% year-on-year, confirming preliminary estimates.

Despite the positive dynamics, consumer spending decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, and gross capital investment decreased by 2.2%. On the other hand, government spending increased by 0.6% and exports increased by 1.4%, while imports increased by 0.5%.

The dynamics of GDP in individual eurozone countries varies. Germany faced a 0.1% quarter—on-quarter GDP contraction, while France and Italy posted 0.2% growth and Spain 0.8%.

Preliminary data on the dynamics of eurozone GDP in the third quarter will be published on October 30.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Gold Soars to the Stratosphere

No correction? No problem. Even the slightest dips in gold attract new bulls eager to buy at lower prices. The combination of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, slowing global economy, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, high demand from central banks, and gold's status as a safe-haven asset leaves no doubt about the strength of the upward trend in XAU/USD and the precious metal's ability to set new records.

Rumors of an impending recession are pushing treasury bond yields downward, which in turn is causing global debt yields to fall. The average yield on investment-grade government and corporate debt has dropped to 3.3%, its lowest level since September 2022. The main beneficiary of this process is gold, which pays no interest and easily outperforms bonds when rates fall.

Global Bond Yield Dynamics

The cooling of the U.S. labor market and economy forces the Fed to begin a monetary easing cycle, which has historically benefited precious metals. In theory, the U.S. dollar weakens under such conditions, providing a tailwind for XAU/USD. However, as events in 2023-2024 have shown, gold can rise even amidst a rally in the USD index. It serves as an alternative to fiat currencies, which are suffering from the synchronization of the Fed's monetary easing with other central banks.

Moreover, central banks, especially in developing countries, favor precious metals as assets immune to third-party countries' influence. In particular, the U.S.'s push to impose the dollar as a reserve currency and means of payment is facing resistance and has triggered a process of de-dollarization. As a result, central banks are likely to maintain a high appetite for gold purchases.

Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris comes to power in the U.S., the budget deficit will continue to grow. It stands at a record $35.4 trillion, and there are no signs of it decreasing. Both Republicans and Democrats will push for new fiscal stimulus measures, which will increase the imbalance and heighten default risks. This creates an ideal environment for safe-haven assets like gold.

Thus, XAU/USD has plenty of reasons to continue its rally. Will the precious metal wait for the August U.S. inflation data, or will it surge to record highs beforehand? In any case, the deflationary process amid a cooling labor market speaks about the slowdown of the U.S. economy, increases the risks of aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, and lights a green light for the analyzed asset.

Technically, the daily gold chart shows a Spike and Ledge pattern. A breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation range at $2470–2525 per ounce will increase the chances of a sustained rally toward at least $2575 and serve as a signal for purchases.

Charot FXMart · Guru

Solar vs. Media Storm: Solar Gains, Trump Media Falls!

US Stocks Gain Thanks to Tech Sector
All three major US stock indexes ended higher on Wednesday. A solid rally in tech stocks offset a morning of disappointment caused by inflation data that dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.

The tech sector, represented by the S&P 500 (.SPLRCT), posted an impressive 3.3% gain after starting the day lower. Key to this was Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares soared 8%. The reason for the rise was a report from Semafor that the US government is considering allowing Nvidia to export advanced chips to Saudi Arabia.

Political factors fuel investor interest
An additional factor influencing market sentiment was events in the political arena. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris managed to put her opponent, Republican Donald Trump, on the defensive during the presidential debate, which caused some reaction from the market.

Inflation data: expectations were not met
Earlier in the day, the US Department of Labor released data on the consumer price index (CPI), which rose 0.2% in August, which is in line with July. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3%, beating economists' expectations of a 0.2% gain.

Market Rate Changes: Traders Adjust Forecasts
Following the release of inflation data, traders revised down their expectations for a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 85% from 66% the day before, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 15% from 34%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Investors were hoping for softer inflation data
"The market was probably expecting a more muted inflation reading, which would give the Fed more reason to cut rates by 50 basis points," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis. "However, the report came in slightly above expectations, putting additional pressure on the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut."

As the trading day wore on, investors gradually adjusted to the new inflation data. Janasewicz also emphasized that it was the technology sector that supported the broader market, standing out from the crowd.

Indices rise amid gains in tech stocks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 124.75 points, or 0.31%, to 40,861.71. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) rose 58.61 points, or 1.07%, to 5,554.13. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 369.65 points, or 2.17%, to 17,395.53.

Sector Breakdown: Who's Leading and Laggards?
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, six were up, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the way, up 1.3%. Meanwhile, energy (.SPNY) was the laggard, down 0.93%, and consumer staples (.SPLRCS) was down 0.88%.

Financials Hold Their Ground
The S&P 500 Financials (.SPSY) managed to pare its losses by the end of trading, closing down just 0.39% after falling more than 2% at the session low.

Financials Gain
American Express (AXP.N) led the pack, posting the biggest gains after its CFO said on a conference call that lending was holding up and consumer spending was strong.

Big U.S. banks also pared early losses to end the day higher. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) rose 0.9% and JPMorgan (JPM.N) rose 0.8%. The financial sector was under pressure earlier Tuesday on concerns about a drop in trading revenue, a slow recovery in investment banking and a possible decline in interest income in light of upcoming rate changes.

Market Reacts to Political Debate
The political debate also caused notable market moves. Eight weeks before the presidential election and after the debate, contracts on a Kamala Harris victory on the PredictIt platform rose to 57 cents on the dollar of potential payout, up from 53 cents before the debate. Donald Trump contracts fell to 48 cents from 52 cents.

These changes led to a decline in the value of stocks of companies that were expected to benefit from a Trump presidency. In particular, stocks related to cryptocurrency, blockchain, and private prisons showed a decline. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) shares fell 10.5%.

Solar companies are favorites due to political expectations
Amid the expected benefits for green energy from a Harris administration, shares of solar panel manufacturers have significantly increased. First Solar (FSLR.O) climbed 15.2%, Sunrun (RUN.O) added 11.3% and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.O) rose 8.5%.

Markets Remain Unsure After Debate
While the debate did not provide Wall Street with a clear answer to important policy questions, experts believe that Kamala Harris' proposals to raise corporate taxes could weigh on corporate profits. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's tough stance on tariffs could increase inflation risks.

GameStop Slips After News of Share Sale
GameStop (GME.N) shares fell nearly 12% after the company announced plans to issue up to 20 million new shares and reported a decline in second-quarter revenue, raising investor concerns about the company's future growth.

Lithium Stocks Rise After CATL Announcement
Lithium stocks surged after Chinese battery major CATL (300750.SZ) announced plans to adjust lithium carbonate production at its Yichun facility. Shares of Albemarle (ALB.N), one of the world's largest lithium miners, rose 13.6% in response to the news.

Marginal Markets: Stocks Rising and Falling
At the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outnumbered decliners 1.4 to 1, with 342 new highs and 130 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,337 stocks rose and 1,882 fell, creating a 1.24-to-1 gainer-decliner ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 48 new highs and 129 lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 12.19 billion shares, above the 20-day moving average of 10.80 billion shares.

Market Rebounds After Morning Selloff
Wall Street recovered from a morning selloff on Wednesday, closing higher. Brent crude prices also rebounded from three-and-a-half-year lows. This came as a key inflation report bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week.

Debate and the Market: Analyzing the Implications
Investors were closely watching the US presidential debate on Tuesday night to assess possible changes in economic and fiscal policy after the November elections.

By mid-trading, all three major US stock indexes had reversed their downward trend, turning a morning sell-off into a rally. Technology (.SPLRCT), especially chip makers (.SOX), outperformed significantly, helping the Nasdaq to lead the way.

Inflation Data: Mixed Signals for the Market
The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, below expectations, according to the US Department of Labor. But the benchmark index, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, posted a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.2% annual gain, beating analysts' forecasts.

Inflation expectations remain mixed
"The inflation report was a mixed bag, satisfying both the bears and the bulls," said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services in Indiana. "Initially, it looked like a 50 basis point rate cut was unlikely," he continued. "Now investors may be starting to realize that it's not such bad news."

Markets predict Fed rate cut
Markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting. The chance of a larger 50 basis point rate cut has fallen to 15%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

European stocks remain steady ahead of ECB decision
European stock markets ended the trading session little changed as investors turned their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) and its upcoming interest rate decision expected on Thursday. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose a symbolic 0.01%, while the MSCI index of global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.62%.

Asian Markets, Emerging Economies in the Red
Emerging market stocks were down 0.37%. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.24%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 1.49%.

Bonds: Yields stabilise after recent swings
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields steadied after an early decline, with rates hitting their lowest since June 2, 2023. The 10-year yield was last at 3.6609%, down from 3.644% at Tuesday's close, with the price down 5/32. The 30-year note also fell 12/32, pushing its yield up to 3.9743% from 3.954% the previous day.

Dollar Strengthens on Inflation Data
The U.S. currency showed modest gains against a basket of global currencies after inflation data confirmed expectations for a smaller 25 basis point rate cut.

The dollar index (.DXY) rose 0.08%, while the euro slipped 0.04% to $1.1015.

Yen Strengthens, Pound Loses
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.04% against the U.S. dollar to trade at 142.40 per dollar. The British pound was last seen at $1.3042, down 0.28% on the day.

Oil Recovers After Selloff
Oil prices steadied after Tuesday's big losses as U.S. crude inventories fell and supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine offset concerns about weaker global demand.

U.S. WTI crude rose 2.37% to $67.31 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.05% to $70.61 a barrel.

Gold Loses as Rate Cut Hopes Dim
Gold prices slipped as expectations for a bigger Fed rate cut at its upcoming monetary policy meeting faded.